NBA Best Bets of the Day (12/4)

Welcome to Hoops with Noops! It’s time for the first half of the NBA In-Season Tournament quarterfinals! We’re down to eight elite teams playing for a chance to win the first ever NBA IST trophy. This round features home games for the higher seeded teams, and then the final four teams go to Las Vegas for the semifinals and final. It’s hard to know how to handicap these games because they are clearly different from regular season games, but not quite comparable to playoff basketball.

NBA playoff games are not all elimination games, and teams in the In-Season Tournament don’t have a few games of data and adjustments to use against their opponents. These matchups could feel like Play-In Tournament playoff games in April, which are also single elimination. Those games haven’t been as low scoring as true playoff games, but we have seen an interesting dynamic in terms of pace and efficiency in the first half and second half. In the 18 Play-In games we’ve had since 2020, the first half pace averaged 100.5, and the second half pace averaged 97.7.

Teams become more focused on hunting for the best shots on offense, which takes more time and leads to less possessions. I’ll be looking for chances to bet 2H unders if it looks like the total hasn’t been adjusted properly for the expected drop in pace. As for bets we can make now, let’s dive into the two games we have tonight and see where value might lie.

Boston Celtics at Indiana Pacers

Current Line – Celtics -6, 242.5
My Projection – Celtics 126, Indiana 118
Key Injuries – Kristaps Porzingis is out. Tyrese Haliburton is questionable.

Indiana dominated the East Group with a 4-0 record and a +39-point differential. Boston won their group on the last night thanks to a 27-point win over the Chicago Bulls, which won them the tiebreaker in East Group C. The Pacers and Celtics played once this season, but Tyrese Haliburton missed that game, so there’s not much, if anything, for us to take away from that matchup. I did have some concerns about Boston’s motivation to win the NBA In-Season Tournament, but watching them “Hack-A-Drummond” with a huge lead against the Bulls was all the proof I needed that the Celtics want to win this event. Haliburton is fighting an upper respiratory infection, and I expect him to play through that. The Indiana guard will also have to fight against two of the best defenders in the NBA, Jrue Holiday and Derrick White.

Haliburton has shown he can perform well against any defense, but tonight will be particularly difficult for the piece that drives the Indiana offensive engine. Kristaps Porzingis will be missed on both ends of the floor, but Boston will have enough space on offense without him and will be able to replace some of his rim protection on defense. Indiana’s fast-paced style can be tough on any team, especially if they are not ready for it, but Boston is rested and should be locked in for tonight’s contest. I like them to win the game and have the full game spread a little bigger than the current market number. But there’s an angle I like even more.

The Celtics have the best first half net rating of any team in the league. They start games strong and manage the lead from there, while the Pacers generally perform better in the second half. Boston is just -3 in the first half, and I have it closer to -5. Let’s bet that and then keep an eye out for a possible second half under if Boston has a strong lead. I also like the Celtics to put up a big number in the first half. I think the totals haven’t been balanced properly between the first and second halves, giving us some first half totals that are too low, specifically the Boston Celtics 1H team total.

Bets

Boston Celtics 1H -3 (-110,DraftKings Sportsbook)
Boston Celtics 1H Team Total Over 63.5 (-110, DraftKings Sportsbook)

New Orleans Pelicans at Sacramento Kings

Current Line – Kings -3.5, 237
My Projection – Kings 118, Pelicans 117
Key Injuries – None

The New Orleans Pelicans held on to win West Group B, as the Houston Rockets lost on the last night, and the Sacramento Kings won a thrilling game over the Golden State Warriors to take West Group C with a 4-0 record. The Kings have been playing great basketball since De’Aaron Fox returned. They have a net rating of +4.6 with him on the court and -6.4 without him on the court. That is a huge improvement and the reason Sacramento is 9-4 when he plays. The Pelicans have dealt with injury issues of their own, but on a wider scale to less important players. They’ve been without Herbert Jones, Jose Alvarado and CJ McCollum for large chunks of the year. Those are three of their most important guards, and injuries are particularly tough when clustered at the same position.

New Orleans has also played all season without Trey Murphy, who is the best shooter on the team and their best bench player last season. The Pelicans finally have a clean injury report, and it looks to me like the market is underestimating how much better they will be in the coming weeks. The return of Jones and Alvarado will be especially important against Fox tonight. McCollum can lead the offense, enabling Zion Williamson and Brandom Ingram to attack more often and more effectively. Murphy looked great in his first game back Friday. You could see more space for the offense when he was on the floor, keeping his defender close to him and not in a help position. I’m excited to see how good the Pelicans can be for as long as everyone stays healthy. I’m also excited to see how they do tonight against a team that’s a good matchup for them.

Fox is facing two capable defenders, and Domantas Sabonis is in for a brutal night trying to slow down Jonas Valanciunas or Zion Williamson. Sacramento does have more shooting and could win the day on 3-point shooting imbalance alone, but that’s their only clear area of advantage. I make this a one-point game and can even make a case for the Pelicans being a short favorite. I’ll happily bet the Pelicans +3.5.