Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Wednesday is a big night for NBA action. We have 10 games in the association with many of the game’s top talents in action. Nine of the games have spread between 2.5 and 7, with the outlier being the 11.5 in the Bucks/Pistons matchup. That is the one game I am looking to avoid a bit, as blowout potential is always a serious risk when betting props, especially if you are taking overs.
We have tons of good plays Wednesday, so make sure you get over the FTN Bet Tracker to follow along with what our analysts are playing. Here are my favorite plays in the sides, points, rebounds and assist prop markets.
Best NBA Spread Bet
Miami Heat -6
(-107, PointsBet)
This was one of our biggest edges in our FTN NBA Betting Model. The opening market already had a nice edge, and the number has come down since it opened. The -6.5 was -110 earlier and it is now available at -6 for -107 reduced juice on PointsBet. We project a Miami win 122-110, so that’s a 12-point edge and 6 points above the spread. There is more than a double-digit percentage edge at these levels. The big reason for this is the absence of De’Aaron Fox. Davion Mitchell came in and was absolutely smoking hot in relief of an injured Fox last game, but I doubt he’s a 20-plus nightly scorer, even with an increased opportunity for playing time moving forward.
Best NBA Points Prop Bet
DeMar DeRozan Over 27.5 Points
(-108, FanDuel Sportsbook)
The Bulls have played three games without Zach LaVine this season. DeMar DeRozan has scored 33, 32 and 37 points in those three games. LaVine played in Tuesday’s game and is sitting the back-to-back, so fire up DeRozan with confidence against the Hornets.
Best NBA Assist Prop Bet
Jalen Brunson Under 6.5 Assists
(-114, BetRivers)
Our player prop model on FTNBets has this as our biggest edge in the assist prop market so far this morning. Atlanta has been surprisingly stingy to opposing point guards this year, giving up just the fourth-most fantasy points per game. Jalen Brunson is averaging just over 7 assists per game and with this being one of the tougher matchups, it makes sense to expect him to perform slightly below his normal levels.
Best NBA Rebounding Prop Bet
Anfernee Simons OVER 3.5 rebounds
(+132, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Without Damian Lillard, Anfernee Simons had a monster game against the Rockets. He finished with 30 points, 5 rebounds and 7 assists. The points prop and assist props are a tad high after that, but the rebound prop opened at 2.5 before that got hammered up to -150/-160. FanDuel moved it to 3.5 at +132, which feels a bit rich. I think he hits this less than 50% of the time, but more than the 43% implied by a +132 payout.
