Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Wednesday is always a big day in the NBA, and this one is no different. We have 10 games to look through for plays, and that has produced quite a few. If you want to see all of the plays, get over to the FTN Bet Tracker and follow all our NBA analysts as they walk you through where they are going to be putting their money. Here are my NBA best bets in the total, points prop, rebound prop and assist prop markets for Wednesday.
Best NBA Total Bet
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Brooklyn Nets Under 231.5
(-110, DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Nets are the worst defensive team in the league to start the season, so that should help the No. 17 offense of the Bucks per 100 possessions. Without Khris Middleton, the Bucks’ biggest change has been on that offensive end where they rank in the bottom half of the league so far. Defensively the Bucks are the best team in the league to date, holding the Rockets who average over 112 points in their other games to just 105 and the 76ers, who average over 114 in their other games to just 88. The Nets have averaged 113 through their first three games, so I would project them to come in well below. The line on the game is only 3.5, so the implied total for the Nets is 114. Good luck topping that mark against this defense. Our FTNBets NBA model loves this under as well with over a 20% projected edge.
Best NBA Points Prop Bet
John Collins Over 15.5 Points
(-120, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Many books have already moved this up to 16.5 and some even 17.5 at plus money. John Collins had a bad scoring game last out but went over 20 in each of the first two, making this number seem way too low. We project him for over 19.6 in our FTNBets player prop model, so we have a nice edge on this number. The -120 is a bit high, but still a good value compared to the 16.5 at -105 to -110 around the rest of the injury at the higher prop number.
Best NBA Assist Prop Bet
Gordon Hayward Over 4.5 Assists
(-112, FanDuel Sportsbook)
LaMelo Ball is out and Terry Rozier remains doubtful, both positive things for Gordon Hayward’s assist total. Hayward plays a ton of minutes anyway, but without the other two he is playing a ton of minutes with the ball in his hands more often. He has 7 and 5 assists in the last two games and should be around those numbers moving forward as long as Rozier remains out. Outside of Dennis Smith, no one else on this team can really create for themselves. Hayward plays some point forward for stretches when Smith is not on the floor and may even rack up most of his assists in those windows alone.
Best NBA Rebound Prop Bet
Jarrett Allen Over 10.5 Rebounds
(+102, FanDuel Sportsbook)
This opened at 9.5 and got hammered up to -140 before many books switched it to 10.5. Some even moved to 11.5 at plus money. The only book at 10.5 that is paying plus money is FanDuel at +102, which is why we bet it there. Jarrett Allen is coming off a 14-rebound game, had double-doubles in two of his three in 2022 and projects for 15 boards in our player projections model. He is at plus money, with an edge greater than 30%, which is something we need to bet every time we see that kind of discrepancy.
