Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
NBA prop betting has been one of my most successful and favorite things to do in the betting world over the last couple years. Over that timeframe, I have created, developed and continuously improved an NBA betting model that projects out each player’s stat line thanks to advanced data and several thousand simulated games.
I use these projections and compare them against the lines across the different sportsbooks to determine the best bets of the day.
Let’s get to it.
Cameron Johnson Over 20.5 Points + Rebounds
(-120, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Cameron Johnson has been on fire since returning from injury, and with Devin Booker and Cameron Payne remaining out, he should continue to benefit from increased usage. Now, he gets a great matchup against the Spurs who rank 30th in points and 3PT% allowed. My model likes Johnson for 22 points … which, yes, is a big number. However, his usage and matchup are both so good, so I also find myself looking at a Johnson ladder on his points up to 25 (+650, FanDuel).
Anthony Davis Over 9.5 Rebounds
(+100, FanDuel Sportsbook)
This is another instance where a prop is plus money, but my model projects the player to go over, making it an instant option on the slate for me. I have Anthony Davis for 11 rebounds. Yes, he should continue to be limited, but he played 26 minutes last game, so that should be viewed as his floor with a chance to see a couple more. I projected him for 27.5 minutes, and he got a rebound projection of over 11 thanks to his elite rebound production and this matchup against Boston who has been poor on the glass this year, ranking 24rh in defensive rebounds allowed.
Keegan Murray Over 2.5 Threes Made
(-113, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Keegan Murray has really found his stride lately, especially from distance, as he has at least 3 threes in eight of his last 10 games, at least 4 in six of his last 10. This is an elite matchup for shooters, as the Timberwolves rank 29th in 3PTs allowed, and 27th in 3PT%. You can also ladder this play on threes up to 4 for +240 (FD) and even up to 5 for +650 (FD).
