Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to Hoops with Noops! Happy Monday! I hope you had a great weekend of watching football. If you happen to be a Buffalo Bills fan, it’s not your fault. It’s not your fault. IT’S NOT YOUR FAULT. To be honest, I did watch some football, but I kept the NBA game on my iPad. Thankfully we have nothing to distract us from The Association tonight, and there are eight games for our viewing pleasure. It’s a particular interesting night because six of the eight are matchups featuring Eastern Conference versus Western Conference teams.
Every win is important, but wins out of conference are less important. They are low on the order of tiebreakers for playoff seeding, and teams only face a non-conference opponent in the postseason if they make the NBA Finals. Handicap carefully tonight because teams often rest players or look ahead to conference opponents in these spots. Keeping that in mind, let’s dive into the slate, see what might happen and make a few bets. But wait, there’s more good news! The video version of Hoops with Noops is back today! Check out the FTNBets YouTube channel to watch me break down these games and please leave a comment below if you have any questions or suggestions. Onto the hoops!
Boston Celtics at Dallas Mavericks
Current Line – Celtics -3.5, 239
My Projection – Celtics 121, Mavericks 120
Key Injuries – Jrue Holiday is questionable.
I mentioned in this article last week that the Boston Celtics are the highest rated team by the sportsbooks since the Golden State Warriors had Kevin Durant. It is a great team, but even great teams are subject to bad schedule spots and tough matchups. This is the second night of a road back-to-back for Boston as well as their third game in four nights and ahead of a game in Miami against the Heat. Boston might be looking ahead, should be fatigued and possibly might rest some players against a non-conference opponent. Tonight they face a Dallas Mavericks team that has had four days off to rest and prepare for this matchup.
Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving and Dereck Lively are all healthy and will present a challenge for Boston tonight. The Celtics do have good defensive players, but it’s a lot for any team to cover two talented ball-handlers and scorers who have their pick-and-roll partner at their disposal. The Mavericks will also have a small advantage in their second unit, which normally doesn’t happen for them, but they are healthy and the Celtics don’t have the best backups. It’s just a great spot for the Mavericks and a bad spot for the Celtics. My projections have Boston as the winner, but by just a point, and that assumes everyone except Jrue Holiday plays. I bet +3.5 but would play this as low as Dallas +2 if the Celtics rest another starter or Dallas -1 if the Celtics rest two starters. In short, bet the Mavericks.
Bets
Dallas Mavericks +3.5 (-114, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Chicago Bulls at Phoenix Suns
Current Line – Suns -5, 228.5
My Projection – Suns 116, Bulls 114
Key Injuries – Zach LaVine is out.
The Phoenix Suns have had their big three stars healthy for a few weeks and have won five of their last seven games. Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal combine to make a great offense and a team that can outscore anyone on any night. Tonight is the third game in four nights and the second game in two nights for Phoenix and the last home game before a seven-game east road trip. I project the Suns to score more points than the Bulls tonight, but not by as many points as the market thinks. As I said, Phoenix has been better with everyone at their disposal, but they haven’t been covering spreads. They are just 2-4-1 against the spread in their last seven games and 6-18-1 ATS in their last 25 games.
The market continues to rate them very highly, and that gives us an edge betting against them. We saw how good the Bulls can play without Zach LaVine while he was out a few weeks earlier in the season. His absence removes a bad defender from the floor and allows the ball to flow more freely on offense. LaVine is a great scorer, but his usage is high which means other players are less involved. Coby White has played great in games without LaVine. Alex Caruso gets placed into the starting lineup, which is a big lift for the defense while not hurting the offense. Caruso is not a dynamic scorer, but he is a great shooter and provides space on the floor for others. Chicago should be able to slow down the Phoenix offense while taking advantage of the less-than-great Suns defense. I make this spread 2, and we get a chance to bet Bulls +5. Let’s do that.
Bets
Chicago Bulls +5 (-110, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Not For Noops
Games I’m not betting and why I’m not betting them.
San Antonio Spurs at Philadelphia 76ers -14, 236.5 – The 76ers come home from a two-game road trip to play tonight and then leave Thursday for a five-game road trip. That kind of “sandwich spot” can be tough for teams, but Philadelphia’s star players are healthy, and the 76ers play their best basketball at home. This is the last game of a five-game road trip for the Spurs, which is often a down spot for an NBA team. Everything in this matchup points to a big 76ers win, but the market expects just that. I make it Philadelphia -13 with a total of 235, so I don’t see any edges from my model. Everything looks just about right in the current odds, so I’m going to pass on this game.
Cleveland Cavaliers at Orlando Magic +2, 215.5 – This should be a close contest. Both teams are dealing with injury issues but have found a way to play good basketball without some of their best players. Franz Wagner returned last night for Orlando, and although he’s not on the official injury report, I don’t expect him to be 100% on the second night of his first back-to-back since recovering from his sprained ankle. Cleveland has been without Darius Garland and Evan Mobley for weeks but have still won 12 of their last 15 games. I can’t find a noticeable difference between either team in this matchup and my model is within a point of the market, so enjoy the game, but I can’t suggest you bet anything.
Milwaukee Bucks at Detroit Pistons +12, 247 – This the fourth game between these two teams who played each other on Saturday. The spread closed Milwaukee -13 with a total of 245.5. The Pistons covered, losing by only six points even without Cade Cunningham, and there were 276 points scored in total. The market moved the total up a bit and the spread down a bit which makes sense to me. The Bucks are 16-26 against the spread this season, but the market continues to rate them very highly. It’s a talented team with an MVP candidate, but they just can’t seem to put teams away late in games. I agree with the market and make this game Bucks -11.5 with a total of 246, but I think the Pistons can cover a big number again. I’m not betting on it, but that’s the way I’d lean in this game. Milwaukee should eventually find their form and play good basketball, but I’m not sure it will start tonight. I’ll let this game go.
Memphis Grizzlies at Toronto Raptors -7, 225.5 – These are two teams that are tough for me to handicap. The Grizzlies have been playing poorly, but they have been covering spreads even with Desmond Bane now missing games. The Raptors had a sharp uptick in performance after acquiring Immanuel Quickley but have seen a drop since trading away Pascal Siakam. It’s only been a few games without Siakam, but losing him is a huge hit to Toronto’s overall level of talent. In general, this game is just a mess. I make it Raptors -5 with a total of 223, which are all small edges, but I don’t feel confident that I have enough data to make a good number on these two teams. No bets for me here.
Charlotte Hornets at Minnesota Timberwolves -14.5, 218.5 – This should be a smash spot for Minnesota, but the sportsbooks apparently know that already. The Charlotte Hornets have been a feisty underdog, but that was with LaMelo Ball, who is listed as questionable tonight. If Ball can play, I might actually bet the Hornets since I make it Timberwolves -11.5 in that scenario. There’s no reason for Minnesota to push hard late in the game, which should leave the back door wide open for Charlotte to sneak inside the number late in the fourth quarter, but they need Ball on the floor to do that. Without him, Charlotte might not score even 100 points. Keep an eye on the #nba-plays channel in the FTNBets Discord because I’ll bet on the Hornets if Ball can play.
Atlanta Hawks at Sacramento Kings -8, 237.5 – The Hawks are the worst team against the spread of any team in the NBA as a favorite, as an underdog, at home and on the road. You would be down 20 units if all you did was bet the Hawks closing spread every game. At some point, these numbers should stabilize, but until they do, it’s hard to trust the market when it comes to Hawks games. Furthermore, Trae Young is out tonight, and Atlanta is a much different team without him. Young and Dejounte Murray are two small guards, and it’s tough for a team to survive with two small guards. Removing Young means there is only one small guard, which means a better defense. I’m close to the current spread here. I make it 7 with a total of 235.5. Those are not big enough edges to bet. I lean the Hawks and over, but my model feels different. I can’t bet on this game.
