Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to Hoops with Noops! We have a jam-packed slate of 10 NBA games Friday to help you start your weekend. This may be a surprise, but we are almost halfway through the season, with most teams having played at least 38 of their 82 games already. It’s often said that the NBA All-Star game is the halfway point, but it’s actually much sooner, and that makes some of the surprises we see in the standings more real than they might seem.
The Minnesota Timberwolves and Oklahoma City are tied for the top seed in the Western Conference and hold tiebreakers over the teams just behind them. The Golden State Warriors are a game out of the Play-In Tournament, and time is running out for them to win enough games to make the postseason. The Eastern Conference looks more like what we expected, but the battle between the Chicago Bulls, Brooklyn Nets, Atlanta Hawks and Toronto Raptors is a tight race for the last two Play-In Tournament slots. Games are getting more important each day, so let’s see who plays Friday, how they might handle the situation, and how we can hopefully extract value from the betting markets.
Since it’s Friday, you can also watch a video version of Hoops with Noops on the FTN YouTube channel. Leave a comment and let me know if there’s anything else you’d like to see in these pieces. To the basketball!
NBA Best Bets for Friday
Houston Rockets at Detroit Pistons
Current Line – Rockets -7, 227
My Projection – Rockets 117, Pistons 107
Key Injuries – Cade Cunningham and Dillon Brooks are out.
As bad as the Pistons were to start the season, things are even worse now that they are without Cade Cunningham. He should be back on the court in a week or so, but while Detroit is without him, they have no guards who can handle the ball, initiate the offense, and be a scoring threat. They have a few guys who can do one or two of those things, but you need at least one guy on the floor who can do all three. A player who can bring the ball up and start the offense is not effective if the defense doesn’t have to worry about that player scoring. A guard that can score and handle the ball, but cannot create offense for others means the defense has one main focus, which simplifies things. It’s a bad situation, and Friday’s opponent doesn’t help. The Rockets have lost the first two games of their road trip. which is never great, but a loss in Miami and a loss to the Bulls in overtime have not caused me to adjust my rating on the Rockets down by even a point. Houston still plays good defense, controls pace, and can score enough points to win games. Against a team like the Pistons, they should be able to keep the game slow, dominate on defense, and make enough baskets to outscore Detroit. The Rockets do have a game in Boston tomorrow night which is even more reason for them to play slow and keep their players as fresh as possible. All of this adds up to a bet on the Detroit Pistons team total under 109.5. They have gone just over this number a few times, but only against teams that want to play fast and that’s not going to happen tonight.
Bet
Detroit Pistons Team Total Under 109.5 (-110, FanDuel Sportsbook)
New Orleans Pelicans at Denver Nuggets
Current Line – Nuggets -8.5, 228.5
My Projection – Nuggets 124, Pelicans 112
Key Injuries – Brandon Ingram, CJ McCollum, Zion Williamson and Trey Murphy are questionable.
This is the first night of a back-to-back for the Pelicans, and it shows in their injury report. The game is on ESPN, which should mean that we see more of the names listed above are in, but it doesn’t seem to me like the NBA’s new player rest policies have had a much of an impact. The Pelicans would love to beat the Nuggets, but New Orleans begins a two-game series in Dallas against the Mavericks, who are just half a game behind the Pelicans in the Southwest Division. That’s important for playoff seeding, and winning at least one of the next team games would be huge for New Orleans. So, I wouldn’t be surprised if they rest several of their key players in preparation for the Mavericks. The Nuggets do have a few odd losses the last two weeks, but those games were all bad schedule spots for them. There is no rest issue or lookahead concern for Denver here, and I like their chances to win this game by margin whether all the Pelicans play or not. I don’t mind laying the 8.5/9 point spread you can get in the betting markets currently, but I think there is a better angle. Denver is 13-4 against the spread in the first quarter at home. Nikola Jokic plays the first 10-plus minutes of the game, which gives him 2-3 minutes to carve up the second unit of his opponents. The Pelicans are a good first-half team, but oddly enough, an average team in the first quarter and a bad first-quarter team on the road. The way their rotation is set, they get better matchups in the second frame of the game. The current first-quarter spread for Denver is -2.5 and I have it close to 4. That’s a bet.
Bet
Denver Nuggets 1Q -2.5 (-108, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Not For Noops
Games I’m not betting and why I’m not betting them.
Sacramento Kings at Philadelphia 76ers -1, 241
The prices for this game are within a point or two of my projections. Without Joel Embiid, the 76ers are clearly a worse team, but they have enough talent to be competitive and beat teams like Sacramento at home. Unfortunately, the team has not figured out how to play well without Embiid. The loss to Utah at home and the overtime loss in Atlanta were very poor performances. It’s hard for any team to adjust to playing without their best player and until Philadelphia starts to show signs of positive play, I can’t trust them. It’s not a bad spot for Sacramento, but I don’t rate them high enough to back them either. No bets in this game for me.
Indiana Pacers at Atlanta Hawks -5.5, 252
The Hawks have the worst record against the spread for any home team (3-11-1 -8.3 units), any road team (6-15 -9.5 units), any favorite (4-14-1 -10.4 units) and any underdog (5-12 -7.5 units). That is a staggering accomplishment, especially in a market that is generally efficient and adjusts teams throughout the season. I can’t remember another team ever achieving the Frightful Foursome (patent pending) ever in all my years handicapping basketball. I mention all this because it puts us in a difficult spot. Should we be backing the Hawks because their rating continues to get adjusted down and it’s a good time to buy low? Or do we need to acknowledge that this team is different and should just be left alone? I have no idea, but I do know I won’t be betting on or against the Hawks until their performance against the spread starts to balance.
Golden State Warriors at Chicago Bulls -3, 228
My model and the market agree on the pricing for this game. The Warriors are a mess and will be without Chris Paul for several weeks. That’s going to push Stephen Curry into the role of initiating the offense which he is good at doing, but Curry is most valuable when he can play off ball and use screens to find open shots for himself. Paul and Draymond Green have been the guys to lead the offense and get Curry the ball, but both are out tonight. It’s also the first night of a road back-to-back for Golden State who goes to Milwaukee tomorrow. It’s a bad spot for the Warriors, but I can’t justify backing the Bulls. Chicago is also dealing with a constantly changing lineup and gave up leads late in their last two games forcing them to have to win in overtime. I’m going to pass here.
Portland Trail Blazers at Minnesota Timberwolves -14, 221.5
I was ready to bet a Trail Blazers team total under again, but there are a few flies in the ointment. First, Rudy Gobert is listed as questionable and he is the key to the Minnesota defense which is the best in the NBA. Without him, the defense is still good, but it’s not great. Second, the market finally moved the Blazers team total down below 103 points. I have them scoring 99 points which is an edge, but that also assumes Gobert plays. It’s a terrible spot for Portland who is playing their last game of a seven-game road trip which still makes the team total under appealing, but I’m going to wait to see if Gobert is playing. Without Gobert, I’m worried about how a blowout will impact the Minnesota defense and there’s always the possibility Portland makes a few of the dozens of three pointers they shoot every game. I’ll add this bet in the FTNBets Discord if/when Gobert is announced to be playing.
Orlando Magic at Miami Heat -3.5, 219
This game is a mess. Franz Wagner is out. Jimmy Butler is doubtful. Tyler Herro and Wendell Carter are questionable. There are bunch of players listed questionable or worse, but it’s too many to type. All that uncertainty makes this a hard game to handicap. It is the first night of a back-to-back for Orlando and Miami has been at home for a few games which pushes me toward Miami, but not strongly enough to make a bet. Thankfully there are plenty of other games, so we don’t have to do anything with this one.
Los Angeles Clippers at Memphis Grizzlies +7.5, 228.5
The Grizzlies have been a tough to figure out the last week or so. The loss of Ja Morant clearly makes them worse, but it seems knowing that Ja isn’t coming back has galvanized the rest of the team. The finished their recent road trip by beating the Suns in Phoenix and the Mavericks in Dallas as big underdogs in both games. The Clippers should crush this team, but this price is close to my projections and I’m not sure I have a good handle on the Grizzlies. I’ll pass here and use it as an opportunity to learn more about Memphis.
Charlotte Hornets at San Antonio Spurs -1.5, 236
This is a strange game, because it will be the first game for LaMelo Ball in a few weeks and the Spurs have looked much different with their new starting lineup. Tre Jones is the starting point guard for San Antonio and his presence has improved their offensive efficiency, but also slowed down their pace. It’s also the first night of a back-to-back for the Spurs, and that means we’ll see Wembanyama rest Friday or Saturday, and that’s not clear at this time. My projections have this game 6-plus points lower than the current total, but I’m too concerned that LaMelo can get the Hornets running and the Spurs get sucked into that fast pace. No bets for me here.
Toronto Raptors at Utah Jazz -2.5, 235.5
I was surprised at first to see Jazz favored over the Raptors, but Utah has been quietly playing great basketball, and Toronto might be without Pascal Siakam. The Jazz have won nine of their last 11 games, with victories over the Nuggets, Bucks, Mavericks and Heat. They finally have a healthy roster and although it’s a team that lacks a true star, it is a team that has quality players in it’s starting and bench units. Toronto has been great since making their trade, and I may bet their team total over, but Siakam is a key piece and the line will shift based on his availability. If he is in, the price will shift and likely move outside of the range I’d like, but if Siakam is out, the Toronto team total will drop a bit and I’ll happily bet that. Siakam is a good player, but the Raptors will be able to get more shooting on the floor which is always good for the offense. Check the FTN Bets Discord because I’ll post a Raptors team total over there if/when I bet it once Siakam’s status is clear.
