NBA Prop of the Day
Jake Silverman
The 2024 NBA All-Star Game is here, and with it comes our annual DFS showdown contests for the true NBA sickos. If you’re reading this, you and I are kindred spirits, and I appreciate your dedication to the mantra that “ball is life” even in a silly annual exhibition with no stakes.
In this article, I’ll outline some of my thoughts on tonight’s teams, including the showdown slate for both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions don’t hesitate to reach out to me in the FTN NBA Discord channel or on X @KawhisenbergDFS.
West All-Stars (-2.5) vs. East All-Stars (O/U 364)
The NBA decided to shelve the All-Star Game draft this season and has returned to the East vs. West format for 2024. More importantly, they’ve also decided to can the “Elam Ending” and will play a full 48-minute game. I’m personally a big fan of the Elam being part of the format and don’t like to see it go, but we will save that conversation for another time.
The West
Even though we’ve left the All-Star Draft era in the past, there are still “captains” for each conference, represented by the players who received the most All-Star Game votes. Unsurprisingly, LeBron James will lead the Western Conference into “battle” tonight, marking his 20th consecutive all-star appearance. This is certainly up for debate, but in my eyes, the West has a distinct talent advantage over the East this year. However, this doesn’t always matter in this format, considering this style of glorified pickup basketball doesn’t exactly jive with some of the bigger names in the game like Luka Doncic and Nikola Jokic.
The East
Former league MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo will lead the East squad after receiving the most all-star votes in the league. But we’ve got plenty of other storylines with this version of the Eastern Conference All-Stars, including a large group of first-timers in Jalen Brunson, Tyrese Maxey, Paolo Banchero and Scottie Barnes. Not only are a third of the East’s players newbies, but we’ve got the hometown narrative on this side of the game as well. Tonight’s game is in Indianapolis, meaning there will be a large contingent of the arena cheering a little bit louder for NBA assists leader Tyrese Haliburton in his second consecutive all-star appearance. But how do we apply any of this to our DFS lineups tonight? Let’s take a look.
NBA All-Star Game DFS Strategy
Although I favor the Western Conference to win the game, the Eastern Conference is a bit more attractive from a fantasy standpoint. I mentioned above that this game isn’t always conducive to certain star players’ styles. Luka Doncic has historically been enemy number one of DFS players in this format. Through his four outings at All-Star Weekend, Doncic has totaled 28 points, 6 rebounds, 20 assists and a steal in 84 minutes. He’s only taken 24 shot attempts across four games. Doncic simply doesn’t care about this game like some of the other (typically American) stars do. Could that change tonight? Sure, but I’m willing to continue full fading Doncic in this format and let others chase the big name and significant salary on both sites.
Nikola Jokic falls into a similar category for me, although his fantasy floor hasn’t been quite as devastating to DFS lineups as Doncic. The Joker nearly pulled off the triple double in 2022, recording 10 points, 9 rebounds and 8 assists in 21 minutes. Still, Jokic hasn’t taken more than five shots in any of his five appearances, and I don’t expect him to do an about-face tonight. If I’m running an MME build on this slate (and I am), I’m going to have minimal shares of Jokic.
With those two unattractive pieces both occupying starting spots for the West, I’m going to focus on loading up on the other perceived high-volume options on the roster. First is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. SGA is making his second all-star appearance and his first as a starter. He came off the bench for Team Giannis last year, posting 9 points, 2 rebounds and 7 assists in just 10 minutes. He was very aggressive in his limited time, and I expect the 25-year-old MVP candidate to take on a lead role for the West in this one. I’ve got no issues getting to any number of veteran stars like Kevin Durant, Anthony Davis or LeBron himself, but Shai is my favorite spend-up option from the West. Off the bench, I’m prioritizing high-volume guards like Stephen Curry and Devin Booker, who could end up closing the game over guys like Jokic and Doncic if they get hot.
In the East, Antetokounmpo played less than a minute in last year’s game due to injury concerns, and I expect him to get back to trying to make an impact on the event as he did in 2022 when he posted 30 points, 12 rebounds, 6 rebounds, 3 steals and a block in 27 minutes. Giannis is my favorite spend-up option in this one. Similar to SGA in the West, Tyrese Haliburton is making his second all-star appearance and first start. But Hali is playing on his home floor, and I expect him to be gunning all game long. In last year’s game, Haliburton recorded 18 points, a rebound and 3 assists in 14 minutes.
Those two will also share the floor with two players who have proven to be high-volume options in the past – Damian Lillard and Jayson Tatum. The pair were both members of Team Giannis in 2023 and benefited greatly from Giannis exiting 20 seconds into the event. Tatum and Lillard combined for 52 of Team Giannis’ 123 shot attempts last year, and both players remain firmly in play as secondary options for me behind Giannis and Hali.
There are also a number of options of the bench for the East who look enticing as value filler for our lineups. Donovan Mitchell and Trae Young should both get their fair share of shot attempts, and the latter has recorded double-doubles with assists in each of his career all-star appearances.
My favorite punt on DraftKings also comes from the East roster. Jaylen Brown, like Lillard and Tatum, benefited from his teammate LeBron James leaving the 2023 game early due to injury. Brown took 27 shots, recording 35 points, 14 rebounds, 5 assists and 2 steals in 25 minutes last year, his second career all-star appearance. We shouldn’t expect anything close to that output this year, but he’s proven that he’s up to play along with this type of game and is one of the cheapest options on the slate. Brown also posted 22 points, 5 rebounds, an assist and 2 steals in his debut in 2021.
I’ll also give an honorable mention to first-timers Tyrese Maxey and Paolo Banchero. Both players could pay off their price tags in limited run on Sunday night. I prefer Banchero if choosing between the two.
