NBA Draft Odds

As we continue to dive into the NBA Finals between the Milwaukee Bucks and Phoenix Suns, the remaining teams in the NBA are getting set for the 2021 NBA Draft and sportsbooks – such as BetMGM Sportsbook – have a plethora of NBA Draft props available to wager on. The draft is scheduled for Thursday, July 29 at Barclays Center, with the Detroit Pistons owning the top pick.

Usually, the most-discussed NBA Draft betting prop heading into the event is “which player will get taken first overall,” but with Cade Cunningham all but a lock to go first, bettors like me need to dig deeper into the odds. Draft props like “who will be the third overall pick” or over/unders on draft position for respective players is likely the best way to get betting value instead of having to bet your house for minimal returns.

Below, I will break down my two favorite NBA Draft betting props and explain my thought process for why I think you need to wager on these now before the betting odds shift against us.

Before we get into my NBA Draft prop bets, I’d be remiss if I didn’t at least share with you the betting odds for No.1 overall pick from BetMGM and why there’s nearly no value to wager on it.

Who will be picked first in the 2021 NBA Draft?

Odds are courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook.

If you’ve got an extra $10,000 laying around the house and want to make an easy $100, this is the NBA Draft betting prop for you. Considering -10000 odds have an implied probability at 99%, this is about as much of a lock as it gets. However, this wouldn’t be a responsible bet I can endorse for long-term gains.

NBA Draft Prop Picks & Best Bets

There are two betting props for the 2021 NBA Draft that immediately caught my eye are “who will be picked third overall” and the O/U draft position of Gonzaga forward Corey Kispert. These two props both offer decent value based on the information we know and have skewed lines in our favor.

Jalen Green to be selected 3rd overall at +125

Odds are courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook. 

For the third overall slot, Evan Mobley from USC is favored to be chosen by the Cleveland Cavaliers at -140 (58.5% implied probability) at BetMGM. With the Cavaliers seemingly needing everything for their roster and a lack of high-end talent on the wing, their best chance to improve has to be with Jalen Green, not with Mobley.

Mobley likely won’t be a great NBA player out of the gate, but size and potential trumps all when it comes to the NBA Draft and the USC freshman was spectacular in his lone season as a Trojan. This is why the Rockets will likely have to take him as the safer pick at No. 2 with their roster void of talent in the frontcourt outside of Christian Wood. The 25-year-old was a stud this past season and was a frontrunner for Most Improved Player before suffering an ankle injury in February. Pairing Mobley with Wood could provide a “twin towers” effect of patrolling the paint for Houston while having the luxury that both players can step out and hit an outside shot and not clog the lane. 

Mobley led the Trojans to the Elite Eight, and while they fell to the Gonzaga Bulldogs, the freshman showed his immense talent and ability to impact a team on both sides of the floor. This is why I think the Rockets will ultimately take Mobley second overall and allow Jalen Green to drop to third for the Cavaliers.

Green was already touted as a top-ranked high school player who has an offensive game that will translate immediately to the pros. The silky-smooth swingman popped while playing with the G-League Ignite squad against former pros and other journeymen trying to make it back to the show. He averaged 17.9 points per game and 36.5% shooting from behind the arc in his tenure there and separated himself from the other potential top pick, Jonathan Kuminga. Green’s ability to slice through traffic and handling in the pick-and-roll are exactly what teams are looking for in the NBA Draft. At +125, this is the best value for the “third overall pick” prop and the Cavaliers should be ecstatic that an elite scorer like Green falls into their lap.

Corey Kispert Draft Position UNDER 14.5 at -110 (BetMGM)

The Gonzaga Bulldogs had a memorable run in the NCAA March Madness Tournament and while they fell short in the championship game, two players (Jalen Suggs and Kispert) all but sealed their fate as first-round draft picks. Suggs is a near-lock to be a top-five pick but the range on where Kispert will be taken is very different depending on who you listen to. His O/U for draft position is 14.5 at BetMGM and given his coveted shooting ability, I think taking the UNDER is the best bet for his NBA Draft prop at -110.

Essentially, you’re betting that Kispert will be a lottery pick, and there’s one thing most of the teams picking high in the draft have in common: Their perimeter shooting is a tipped-over porta-potty. Of the 12 teams picking in the lottery, seven of them ranked in the bottom-10 in three-point shooting percentage. Two of those teams that could definitely use the talent and skill that Kispert possesses are the New Orleans Pelicans (10th pick) and San Antonio Spurs (12th).

As exciting as the Pelicans are offensively, they were a train wreck shooting the three-ball this season, shooting 34.1%, ranking 25th in the NBA. With Zion Williamson needing space to operate and Brandon Ingram playing iso-ball, these two all-stars need wing players to kick it out so that they can hit an open shot. Kispert fits that criteria, and at 6-foot-7, he won’t be exposed as a defensive liability on the perimeter.

Then there are the Spurs, who seem to be stuck in the pre-Warriors NBA and refuse to take three-point shots. The last two seasons, San Antonio has ranked dead-last in three-point attempts, and it shouldn’t be a shock that the Spurs missed the playoffs both times. Kispert would be a turn-key draft pick for the Spurs in that he would fill an immediate need and wouldn’t need to be heavily developed just to get minutes.

If the Pelicans or Spurs decide against drafting Kispert, don’t sleep on the Pacers to take the plunge and draft the upperclassmen at 13th. The senior would immediately slot in for Indiana on the wing, where the Pacers have minimal talent. If Indy opts to stay with the Sabonis/Turner frontcourt, Kispert could be another floor-spacer needed to allow the big men to operate.

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