NFL Circa Millions Picks for Week 3
Michael Cohen
The NBA is not data-driven in the same way that sports like baseball and golf are. In particular, we can’t evaluate individual matchups solely through calculations. However, we can still use both team level and individual statistics to guide our lineup-building process on a daily basis. Here are five stats I want to build around in DFS for Wednesday.
1. 34.7%
The arrival of Dejounte Murray hasn’t hurt Trae Young’s usage — at least not yet. He’s at a robust 34.7% through three games, including 18 potential assists per game. For context, a season ago those numbers were 33.3% and 17.2 potential assists per game. The field is going to continue to avoid both of these backcourt mates, so it’s no surprise our Kyle Murray has them in the top 10 in his player ratings. My preference would be Trae Young based on his usage.
2. 1.23 FPPM
If I asked you which player is averaging 1.23 FPPM, how many guesses would it take for you to arrive at Jarred Vanderbilt? Vanderbilt is thriving in his new role in Utah, and his minutes have progressed in each game (18 — 25 — 28 — 32).
Houston’s pace, poor defense and high turnover rate all fit Vanderbilt’s game perfectly.
3. 45.7%
Brooklyn is 29th in the league in total rebound rate at 45.7%. They’re also 29th in defensive rebound rate. As if that weren’t enough, they’re 25th in points in the paint allowed per game. Here’s a hot take — Giannis Antetokounmpo goes for 80-plus DK points.
4. 30.5 points per game
Minnesota is allowing 30.5 points per game in transition alone. This is dead last in the NBA and is over five points more than Houston allowed last year (when they finished dead last by three points). Keldon Johnson already gets the benefit of no Devin Vassell, so the transition matchup gives him tremendous upside.
5. 106.7
The Lakers have stormed out of the gate (in pace only) with a 106.7 pace factor. This has certainly been driven in large part by Russell Westbrook, but his individual pace trails both Kendrick Nunn and Anthony Davis. In other words, I still expect them to play at a blistering pace in Wednesday’s game.
This would be fantastic news for Bruce Brown, who has proven to be as sensitive as anyone in the league to the game environment. He posted 30.75 DK points in 30 minutes against Golden State, the only team in the league playing faster than the Lakers. He’s an outstanding GPP play in my book.
