Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
The large NBA DFS slates like the 12-gamer we have Friday are a challenge, because it’s easy to be overwhelmed and feel like we have to play 20 players. There are also a lot of injuries that are changing the slate before tip, with more after tip that can swing the slate. It’s a good night to be paying attention late and here are five stats to get us started.
1, Zion Williamson scores 6.8 points in the paint per game
The Pelicans host the Warriors Friday, and Williamson has taken 95 attempts on the year. Of those 95, 82 have come within five feet of the basket and Golden State is dead last in points allowed in the paint. The total of 233.5 is one of the highest of the night and the Warriors are down to 25th in defensive rating. Brandon Ingram is in line to return tonight but in the 46 minutes they have shared the court, Zion has a 30.7% usage rate and 1.43 points per minute. His true shooting rate will not continue to be 53.6% when he’s shooting from such a close distance.
2. Jordan Poole has a 31.4% usage without Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson
He’s certainly going to be popular as the Warriors have decided to empty the bench, sitting four starting players. The game total dropped but only by five points after that news came out and is still at 228.5 points. Poole should be responsible for so much of the offense tonight and he has a 40.7% assist rate to boot.
3. Kevin Durant has a 40.7% usage rate without Kyrie Irving and Ben Simmons
The Wizards aren’t the scariest defensive matchup and Durant is going to have the Nets on his shoulders tonight. His usage rate is off the charts but the salary is still a super reasonable $10,300 and the upside is well over 60 DK points with how many shots we should expect him to take.
4. The 76ers are missing James Harden
With Harden now out for a month, Tyrese Maxey will be asked to shine at the point guard position. While he likely gets Joel Embiid back tonight, Maxey is still over a 31.0 usage rate without Harden on the floor. We can say this about a lot of players, but he’s probably not expensive enough for the situation against the Knicks.
5. The Utah Jazz are eighth in possessions per game
That is important for the Jazz and the Lakers because both are in the top eight in possessions. While the big guns will get attention, Russell Westbrook is going to get totally lost in the shuffle tonight with Poole, Maxey and others on the slate in the same salary range. This is the kind of game environment that he can thrive in and he’s been fantasy-relevant off the bench in the past three contests. He only played 25 minutes in the last game and still exceeded 34 DK points and the salary went down.
