Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
It’s another very fun-looking slate of NBA action tonight, and the later games might be the ones that help dictate our success.
We’ve got multiple late hammers, including the Indiana Pacers and the Los Angeles Lakers out on an island with a 10:30 p.m. ET tip. That game should be a barn-burner. Let’s set the stage with some stats to build lineups.
1. Zion Williamson is under $8,000 on DraftKings
You can argue that outside of a handful of players, the slate doesn’t start in earnest until 8:00 p.m. ET. Zion is taking on the Oklahoma City Thunder, and CJ McCollum has already been ruled out with Brandon Ingram being listed as doubtful. Zion Williamson has 1.35 points per minute in that scenario with a 34.5% usage rate. If that wasn’t enough, the Thunder are allowing the fourth-most points in the paint this season and are tied for dead last in points allowed facing the post-up. Williamson is fifth in points scored and has massive upside here.
2. Jamal Murray scores 1.06 points per minute without Michael Porter
The Nuggets are going to be without Porter in all likelihood, and that’s a bonus for Jamal Murray in a great environment. The Rockets are in the bottom five in defensive rating and are 28th against primary ball-handlers, while Murray also has a 27.4% usage rate. He’s starting to find his form, and the true shooting rate of 51.3% that he has in the sample size is not going to last much longer – certainly not against the Rockets.
3. DeMar DeRozan leads the Bulls in usage rate at 29.6%
This is a very appealing spot for DeMar DeRozan at an affordable salary. Not only does he lead the Bulls in usage rate, but he also scores the fifth-most points per possession in isolation this year. The Jazz have allowed the second-most points per game in that play type and face that play at a top-10 rate. With a high total and DeRozan scoring 1.16 points per minute, he has blow-up potential in this matchup. If that wasn’t enough, the Jazz are dead last against scorers this season.
4. Devin Booker is at 1.26 points per minute
The Suns face the Kings tonight, and the Kings should push Devin Booker to one of his better games of the season. They are bottom five in defensive rating and sixth in pace, perfect for Booker. He’s ninth in transition points, and the Kings are allowing a 53.9% field-goal rate against transition. Sacramento is also 26th against scorers, and Booker is still under $10,000.
5. Anthony Davis leads the league in points scored in the paint per game
It’s not particularly close either, as Anthony Davis is at 13.4 points per game, and the next-closest player is Rudy Gobert at 10.7 points. LeBron James should play tonight, but that’s not a large concern for me, as Davis scores 1.29 points per minute when they share the floor. The Lakers have to have these two playing at their best together to get to where they want to go, and the Pacers are 29th in points allowed in the paint. Additionally, the pace should be the fastest of the night, as both teams are in the top five in that metric.
