Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
For only three games, there are a couple of very fun spots to target tonight. Every team is in a back-to-back situation, but all three games tip off within one hour of each other.
That should give us all of the information we want for pivots and targets, so let’s get into the stats.
1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leads the league in drives per game
That could come in handy tonight, as the Rockets are in the bottom 12 in points per game allowed in the paint. He’s also in the top four in points scored when he’s in isolation, and the Rockets are allowing the 10th-highest effective field goal rate. Both of these teams are in the top eight in pace and can run the court, a style that helps Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The only player who scores more points in transition than Gilgeous-Alexander is Giannis Antetokounmpo, so this matchup fits SGA exceptionally well.
2. Anthony Davis scores 13.1 points per game in the paint
That number is 2.3 points higher than any other player in the league, and he’s leading the league in attempts as well. Considering San Antonio is only 0.7 points per game away from being dead last in the league in allowing points in the paint, this is the perfect matchup for Anthony Davis. Even if LeBron James plays tonight, Davis is giving the Lakers his absolute best effort lately, as he’s playing his best basketball since the bubble playoffs in my view. The price is up there, but it’s very deserved given how he’s been playing.
3. Keldon Johnson is only $6,800 on DraftKings
He hasn’t been our favorite player this season, but the salary has dropped to a level where we can’t ignore him and his 28% usage rate. He’s also third in the league in spot-up points, and while the Lakers aren’t the ideal matchup, they maybe aren’t as good as they look. They’ve faced spot-up shooters at the third-lowest frequency and have allowed a 36.8% field goal rate. That seems unlikely to stick the entire season, and as long as Keldon Johnson plays his minutes, he has a strong chance to hit value at this salary.
4. The Utah Jazz allow the second-most transition points per game in basketball
Devin Booker is hard enough to defend on a good day, but he’s scoring the seventh-most points in transition per game with an effective field goal rate of 66.2%. The last time he saw the Jazz, he scored 78 DK and took 31 shots while the teams combined for 267 total points. It’s silly to project that kind of game again, but Utah is just 27th against scorers. Booker has the same upside as any player with a higher salary tonight.
5. Jarred Vanderbilt is averaging 13.6 rebound chances per game
The Jazz aren’t going to have the easiest time dealing with Deandre Ayton on the interior, and Jarred Vanderbilt is going to need to help as much as he can. Fouls can derail any game for him, as he averages 3.3 fouls per game, but he can hit the glass as well. Phoenix is only 13th and 15th in points and rebounds allowed in the paint per game, so this isn’t the worst matchup for Vanderbilt. He’s not overly expensive and is at 1.00 points per minute on the season.
