Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
We’ve got 11 NBA games Friday and some of the DFS salaries for these players were definitely a choice. The Nuggets are without two of their most important players, but the salaries for many of the active players are barely any different than when Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray are active. That could make for plenty of chalk — even on this big a slate — so let’s get to it.
1. Joel Embiid has a 41.0% usage rate without James Harden
The total on the game between the Bucks and 76ers is one of the lowest on the slate, but it’s a heavyweight clash of the titans between Giannis Antetokounmpo and Embiid. Those types of matchups are always super fun to watch and both of those players are 1-2 in free throws attempted per game. They both know how to get to the stripe but it is interesting to note that Embiid is tied for the most points per game in post-ups this year. However, the Bucks are elite at defending that play as they allow the second-fewest points per game. It may not be the best matchup but Embiid is doing so much for the Philly offense that he may well overcome everything around him.
2. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leads the league in drives per game at 25.1
The next closest player is Ja Morant (who happens to be in the same game) and he’s at 22.5, so there’s a gap. Gilgeous-Alexander can seemingly get wherever he wants to on the floor to get a shot off and the Grizzlies rank 24th in points allowed in the paint. They are also 23rd against superstar players and Gilgeous-Alexander has a 32.9% usage rate and 1.47 points per minute. Only Luka Doncic, Joel Embiid and Stephen Curry are scoring more points per game in the NBA so far and SGA is doing it despite taking just 2.9 three-point shots per game. He’s not expensive enough when he’s under $10,000 on DK, even with the understanding that Jaren Jackson returning for the Grizzlies improves their defense in a major fashion.
3. Myles Turner is scoring 1.39 points per minute
I was a little surprised that the Rockets are 11th against stretch bigs this season but that may not matter for Turner. He’s been excellent this season and even with a usage rate of just 21.9%, he’s been a fantasy monster. He may not be the most active player in the paint with 6.5 paint touches per game but he’s scoring eight points per contest in the paint and the pace is so appealing in this spot that it’s hard to not want to play him even at an elevated salary.
4. The Pacers are 28th against skilled centers
We’re going to stay right in that game with Alperen Sengun. He gets a great matchup in the Advanced DvP as it is and the Pacers are dead last in points allowed in the paint, even with a player like Turner in the fold. Sengun is averaging 6.8 paint touches per game and he’s averaging 15.8 rebound chances per night. I always wish he’d get a few more minutes but the spot is amazing for him in about every way we could ask for.
5. Julius Randle and Stephen Curry have incredible matchups
That may not be a stat itself, but the mini stack of Randle and Curry looks like a very interesting late-night hammer. Randle is up to a 26.6% usage rate and 1.26 points per minute when Mitchell Robinson has been off the floor. The Warriors haven’t been able to handle big men as they rank 29th against rebounders and 25th against skilled centers. On the other side of this game, Curry is still at a reasonable price for his production which is 1.57 points per minute with a 31.0% usage rate. New York is only allowing the 14th-lowest field goal rate from a 3-point distance but they are number one in frequency allowed and face the greatest shooter of all time Friday.
