5 Stats to Know: NBA DFS March 9

Welcome to “5 Stats to Know.” This NBA DFS article will come every day, Monday through Friday, provided by yours truly, to help you gain a quantitative edge on the rest of the field when identifying core plays.

The format of this article is simple. I will provide five stats that stuck out to me when diving into the day’s NBA slate. These could be derived from FTN’s suite of tools (Advanced DvP, NBA On/Off Splits) or from the NBA’s extensive library of statistics.

Make sure to check out all of the great FTN NBA offerings and fantastic NBA Tools, including our FTN NBA Odds Tracker and daily FTN NBA DFS cheat sheets!

Now, onto the noteworthy numbers for the slate at hand.

De’Aaron Fox, PG, Sacramento Kings (vs. DEN)

Over the last 10 games, De’Aaron Fox has recorded the fifth-most touches per game (90.5) in the entire NBA

Fox has been sensational since the Kings dealt Tyrese Haliburton, and it’s been a direct result of how much more in control he’s been of the offense. He’s posted a 28.9% usage rate over that span and now gets the opportunity to lead the offense without his co-pilot, as Domantas Sabonis will be serving a one-game suspension. Since the trade deadline, Fox has posted a 29.3% usage rate, 34.2% assist rate and 1.25 DraftKings points per minute with Sabonis off the court. In what should be an up-tempo game, Fox makes for an elite option at point guard against the Nuggets Wednesday.

Terry Rozier, PG/SG, Charlotte Hornets (vs. BOS)

Over his last six games, Terry Rozier has averaged 26.8 points, 6.0 assists and 5.5 rebounds per game

Traditionally a more inefficient player on the offensive end, Rozier has shot 52.8% from the field and 52.0% from three over this span with an average plus-minus of plus-8.2. He’s been the offensive catalyst for this Hornets’ team and should continue to be just that in a revenge spot against his former team, the Boston Celtics. It’s arguably the worst matchup on the slate, but this should keep people away from the red-hot Rozier. Because of his recent form and low rostership projection, Rozier is one of my favorite guard pivots on the slate.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, PG, Oklahoma City Thunder (@ MIN)

Over his last seven games, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has posted a higher usage rate (35.6%) than each of Kevin Durant, Jayson Tatum and LeBron James

Gilgeous-Alexander has been a man possessed over the last two weeks. He’s dropped below 30 raw points only once in his last seven games, with the only outlier being a 29-point effort against the Nuggets. He’s not only been scoring, but his peripheral production has also skyrocketed. Over this same span, he’s posted at least 12 combined rebounds and assists in six of seven games, while averaging 7.7 assists and 6.3 rebounds per game. He’s still getting more than 30 minutes per game on a nightly basis despite the Thunder’s not-so-subtle attempt at tanking, making Gilgeous-Alexander one of my favorite spend-ups on the slate.

Alperen Sengun, PF/C, Houston Rockets (vs. LAL)

In 203.6 minutes with Christian Wood off the floor this season, Alperen Sengun has averaged 1.20 DraftKings points per minute

That’s a rather significant 0.09 DraftKings points per minute jump from when Wood is also on the court, as Sengun has been a legitimate per-minute threat when given the opportunity. He’s posted a 23.2% usage rate, 19.8% assist rate and 17.8% rebounding rate, giving him elite all-around upside for the price. With Christian Wood missing morning shootaround, there’s a strong likelihood that we get another Sengun start against a vulnerable frontcourt, making him an elite mid-tier target with dual-position eligibility.

Rudy Gobert, C, Utah Jazz (vs. POR)

In games with Jusuf Nurkic inactive this season, Portland’s defensive rating has dropped 11.79 points (124.20)

What is already a bad defensive unit becomes almost historically bad with the absence of their center, as the defensive rating of 124.2 would be the worst in the NBA by a wide margin. They’ve allowed 128.25 points per game without him this season and will continue to get even more brutalized around the rim. Since he’s been out, they rank dead last in the NBA in rebounds per game (38.2) while giving up the third-highest field goal percentage (70.6%) within five feet of the basket. This is a spot where Gobert carries legit 20-20 upside.