5 Stats to Know: NBA DFS March 26

Welcome to “5 Stats to Know.” This NBA DFS article will appear three times a week, provided by yours truly, to help you gain a quantitative edge on the rest of the field when identifying core plays.

The format of this article is simple. I will provide five stats that stuck out to me when diving into the day’s NBA slate. These could be derived from FTN’s suite of tools (Advanced DvP, NBA On/Off Splits) or from the NBA’s extensive library of statistics.

Make sure to check out all of the great FTN NBA offerings and fantastic NBA Tools, including our FTN NBA Odds Tracker and daily FTN NBA DFS cheat sheets!

Now, onto the noteworthy numbers for the slate at hand.

Kris Dunn, PG, Portland Trail Blazers (vs. HOU)

Kris Dunn has led the Blazers with a 34.8% assist rate while averaging 1.06 DraftKings points per minute over the last week with the majority of their starters out

Dunn has been in and out of the starting lineup with this backcourt depleted for the Blazers, and while he only played 19 minutes last game against these same Rockets, he showed his elite per-minute upside by stuffing the stat sheet. In those 19 minutes, Dunn produced 12 points, seven assists, a trio of rebounds and a pair of steals, totaling just under 29 DK points in 19 minutes. Prior to this game, he had played at least 24 minutes in five games and 20 or more in all but one of his games with Portland this season. Regardless of whether he gets back into the starting group or not, Dunn is a serviceable piece at $4,600 on DraftKings.

Davion Mitchell, PG/SG, Sacramento Kings (@ ORL)

Over the last week with De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis out, Davion Mitchell has posted a 26.7% usage rate, leading the Kings

Mitchell also ranks eighth in the entire NBA in touches per game (86.0) over his last two games, putting him alongside Kyrie Irving, Dejounte Murray and other elite company. He’s averaged 26.5 points, 8.0 assists and 2.0 rebounds in 41.9 minutes per game over this span while taking 27 shots across two games, becoming the main scorer and facilitator on this depleted Kings team. A matchup with the Orlando Magic should only lead to more production for the young guard, making him an elite mid-tier play at $6,000 on DraftKings Saturday.

Bam Adebayo, C, Miami Heat (vs. BKN)

In three games against the Nets this season, Bam Adebayo has averaged 24.3 points, 11.3 rebounds and 3.3 assists per game

Whenever the Nets are on a slate, your attention goes immediately to the opposing big man, as their interior has been vulnerable for the last few seasons. The addition of Andre Drummond at the trade deadline has added some size but has barely added much defensive resistance as Drummond has never been known for his defensive abilities. Adebayo has been incredibly productive against this Nets team, averaging over 44 DraftKings points per game in 33.4 minutes per game against them this season. Despite the back-to-back, Miami should be going all out to win this game given how tight the East is and with the tight spread, Adebayo could see over 35 minutes in this game. Both he and Nikola Vucevic (who I will get to shortly) are elite GPP options on a slate where we could see the masses pay down at center.

Nikola Vucevic, C, Chicago Bulls (@ CLE)

Since March 7, the Cleveland Cavaliers have the fifth-lowest defensive rating in the NBA (119.0), a clear sign of the impact of Jarrett Allen’s absence

For the majority of the season, the Cavs have been a defense (and frontcourt) to avoid attacking. This has not been the case since the loss of Jarrett Allen. Their overall defensive rating has plummeted (down to 25th) and they’ve allowed the fifth-most shot attempts in the restricted area per game (30.4) and rank in the bottom third of the league in mid-range shot attempts allowed per game (11.3). Both of these zones are right in the wheelhouse of Nikola Vucevic, who comes in reasonably priced despite the expected return of DeMar DeRozan. At what should be little-to-no ownership, Vucevic is an elite GPP play against a crumbling interior defense.

Kyrie Irving, PG, Brooklyn Nets (@ MIA)
Kevin Durant, SF/PF, Brooklyn Nets (@ MIA)

When sharing the court this season, Kyrie Irving has averaged 1.46 DraftKings points per minute while Kevin Durant has averaged 1.75 DraftKings 

Don’t let the matchup fool you — both Irving and Durant are elite options as arguably the two best scorers not only on the slate but in the NBA, as they’ve proven to be elite in terms of individual production when sharing the floor. Durant leads the team with a 34.2% usage rate while Irving is second with a 29.7% usage rate when sharing the court. Both have also done their fair share of facilitating, posting assist rates over 28% while both averaging over 30 raw points per 36 minutes. Miami has started to fall apart a bit, ranking 22nd in overall defensive rating over their last five games while dropping games to the short-handed Knicks and Warriors as well as the Sixers over their last three games. These are two of my favorite spend-ups, with a slight lean toward Irving for the discount.