Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
It’s another fun Saturday for the NBA, and the day’s DFS slate brings us a nice mix of game environments and star power. It’s a bit of an odd slate because there aren’t a ton of big-dollar spend-ups, likely creating a popular player in that salary range. Also, we get a strong mix of teams that still need to stack up wins for the postseason, so let’s go to work.
1. Russell Westbrook scores 1.42 points per minute without Kawhi Leonard on the floor
That sample is just under 70 minutes, so there needs to be a grain of salt with that number, and the 64.8% true shooting rate is not sustainable either. Still, he should play over 30 minutes and the usage rate is still 25.5%. He’s solving teams allowing him a ton of space on the offensive end enough to have a fantasy impact and will be very popular at this salary, given the scenario for the Clippers. Orlando is only 21st against crafty finishers and there is a 40.0 DK point upside here. They are also without Jalen Suggs, a blow to the perimeter defense.
2. The Pacers allow the sixth-highest points per game defending the post-up (Main)
After Joel Embiid utterly wrecked the Hornets Friday night, he walks into another amazing spot against Indiana as the FTN Advanced DvP Tool clearly shows –
Embiid is chasing the MVP award and making a strong statement lately, averaging over 36 real points in the last six games. He’s also second in points per game in the post-up and has been very efficient lately as well, shooting over 60% from the floor. That’s a distinct improvement on the seasonal rate of 54.1%, along with the Pacers representing a huge pace-up spot as they are ninth compared to 26th for the 76ers. As far as spend-up options, Embiid has to be the clear target for Saturday’s main slate.
3. Since Feb. 28, Jimmy Butler has scored 1.42 points per minute and has a 27.1% usage rate
You may ask why that date was important, and it’s because Butler called out his team and said he was “tired of losing.” Now, Miami is only 5-4 in those nine games, but Butler has been on point, scoring at least 44.25 DK points in every game but one. Yet, DK has lowered his salary to just $8,500 (the FD salary is still a little bit more in line) and now he gets a Bulls team that played a double-overtime game last night. Miami is only 1.5 games behind the Brooklyn Nets for the sixth seed and Butler is just underpriced in this spot given all the factors.
4. Malik Monk scores 1.10 points per minute when Kevin Huerter is off the floor
The Kings saw one of the very few injuries they’ve dealt with this year in their last game as Huerter exited the game after just six minutes played. His MRI did come back clean but it would make some sense for the Kings to be careful with him since they have some lofty goals on the year. Enter Monk, even though I don’t believe he’s going to start. When the Kings opened the second half, Terance Davis started that half but Monk closed the game. Washington is just 26th against scorers and Monk leads the team in minutes without Huerter, giving him a high ceiling for a cheaper salary.
5. The Celtics are 23rd against rebounders across the past 15 games
That brings Walker Kessler from the Jazz into play because the Celtics might be 10th in points per game allowed in the paint, but they are 25th across the past five games. Things are trending down for them because they have been missing Robert Williams and since they played Friday, they’ll likely be missing Al Horford as well. Horford said he could play Saturday but Boston hasn’t had him do that once this season. Especially if Horford is out, that makes things much clearer for Kessler to have a big game and he’s scoring 1.20 points per minute in the situation they are in. Boston has allowed a 64.1% field goal rate within five feet of the hoop and that is likely to go up in this matchup.
