Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
We have a lot of close spreads for the Friday NBA DFS slate, as every spread is in the single digits, and we have a couple under five points. I’m not sure if I can recall a slate of eight games that features one game with a total of 13 points higher than any other, but we have that in Atlanta Friday night. Most of the star players should be active for this slate, so we’ll have some choices to make at the top of the pricing grid, along with everywhere else.
1. Caris LeVert has played at least 34 minutes in three of the past four games
The one time that didn’t happen was a game where Cleveland beat the Hornets handily and he only logged 27 even without Donovan Mitchell. While Mitchell is back in the lineup for the Cavaliers, LeVert played 36 against the 76ers Wednesday — if that trend continues, this is a cheaper way to get a piece of this game on DK. He’s tougher to vouch for on FD but he’s scoring 0.85 points per minute on the year. In the game against Philly, roughly 12 minutes came without one of Darius Garland or Mitchell on the floor. When either one of those players is off the floor, LeVert goes over 0.90 points per minute and the minutes are hard to ignore against the Wizards, who are 19th in defensive rating.
2. The Atlanta Hawks allow the fifth-most points per game off screens
Stephen Curry only takes 2.4 attempts per game, but he’s scoring the fourth-most points per game off a screen despite shooting just 38.3% on the season. There is not much that looks like Atlanta can stop him in this spot according to the FTN Advanced DvP Tool –
The Golden State offense is going to be squarely on Curry’s shoulders since Draymond Green has been suspended for this game. Curry is shooting over 54.0% from deep over his past three games and his assist numbers should jump up in this spot as both the Warriors and Hawks are in the top eight in pace on the year.
3. The Houston Rockets are 29th in defensive rating
To the surprise of nobody who has been playing NBA DFS this season, we’re going to want to target the Rockets with someone from the Pelicans. For me, Brandon Ingram is high on that list and with the Pelicans not playing Jonas Valanciunas very much (no more than 21 minutes in four games and under 20 in three of those), the path gets clearer in this matchup –
Taking Valanciunas and Zion Williamson off the floor has left Ingram with a 33.4% usage rate and 1.24 points per minute while he immediately played 38 minutes after missing time with an ankle injury. If there’s any hope for New Orleans to sneak into the play-in, this is a must-win contest.
4. Jaren Jackson shoots 55.3% on post-up opportunities
Not only that, the San Antonio Spurs are ninth in points allowed when defending the post-up and this is a spot for Jackson to excel. The Spurs are fifth in pace but the Grizzlies have no problem matching that at seventh, so the game should get up and down the court. San Antonio is also 25th against stretch bigs, 22nd against skilled centers, 21st in rebounds allowed, and dead last in points per game allowed in the paint. Since Ja Morant has been out for the Grizzlies, Jackson is averaging 4.7 points per game in the paint and his DK salary stands out in a major way. He was $8,500 just two games ago while Friday night finds him at $7,300. Even though he is a normal price on FD, the upside in this environment makes him a very appealing option since he scores 1.33 points per minute.
5. Damian Lillard is scoring the sixth-most points per game in isolation
In this article, I try to not write up the same position around the same salary range. For Friday’s slate, I’m making an exception, because Lillard is basically the same salary as Stephen Curry. Given the total in Curry’s game, Lillard is likely to be rostered at a fraction of Curry and this matchup against the Celtics is quietly excellent. Boston is 23rd against both primary ball handlers and scorers, while they’ve fallen to 26th against scorers in the past 15 games. If that wasn’t enough, Boston is dead last in points per game allowed when defending isolation this year. They are also 27th in points per game allowed to the ball handler in the pick-and-roll while Lillard is just 0.1 points away from leading the league. While it’s true the Blazers might actually be fully healthy on Friday for the first time in a while, Lillard still boasts a 33.9% usage rate and 1.43 points per minute. If he outscores Curry, you could have a massive leg up on plenty of other lineups.
