Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The NBA action Tuesday looks like it should be great — of the eight games on the schedule, five are three points or fewer for the spread. There are also some vital games on the schedule for the playoff race, headlined by the Los Angeles Lakers heading to New Orleans to take on the Pelicans. Those teams are tied for ninth in the Western Conference, so it’s arguably the biggest game of the night, but there are plenty of other spots to target for DFS.
1. Nick Richards has averaged 21.0 rebounding chances per game since Mark Williams was injured
It’s certainly a small sample size of just three games, but that number is fifth in the league in that span and shows just how hard Richards is hitting the glass for the Hornets. For fantasy, he’s scored at least 32.0 DK points in all three games, and he’s done a great job of not fouling with just seven total fouls across 91 minutes. Richards is scoring 1.03 points per minute without Williams on the year and the FTN NBA Advanced DvP Tool tells us that the Cavaliers are 23rd against rebounders. Not only are they that low, but missing Jarrett Allen hurts the paint protection all the way around for the Cleveland defense. Perhaps we shouldn’t expect another 40+ fantasy points as Richards scored on Sunday, but he’s a very affordable player on this slate. Considering Donovan Mitchell and Allen are out for the Cavaliers, it’s easy to pair up Richards with a Cavalier such as Darius Garland, Evan Mobley or Caris LeVert.
2. Eugene Omoruyi started for Detroit Monday night
They expect Mavin Bagley to be out for a few games, which has opened things up for Omoruyi. He’s attempting to earn a contract with the Pistons or elsewhere, as he’s playing on his second 10-day contract in Detroit. Additionally, FD players can rejoice because Omoruyi is finally in the player pool! It only took six games for that to happen but he started for the Pistons on Monday night so they could no longer keep him out of the pool. The points per minute have been at 0.81 but he’s now logged 23, 27, 26 and 32 minutes in the past four games. At $3,800 on DK, I’ll bet he’s the most popular player of the slate and the Wizards are just 20th in defensive rating.
3. The Pelicans are 15th in points per game allowed in the paint
That’s a solid matchup for Anthony Davis, as he and the Lakers take on New Orleans. The DvP Tool certainly would back up that this is a strong matchup for Davis as well –
Now, some folks could point to Davis only scoring 1.31 points per minute while D’Angelo Russell is on the floor but the true shooting rate for Davis in those 137 minutes is only 43.4%. That simply won’t continue for Davis, as he leads the league in points scored in the paint (as well as ranking second in rebound chances per game). New Orleans is allowing the highest field goal rate within five feet of the basket and that’s where 50.4% of Davis’s field goal attempts have come from.
4. The Magic are allowing the third-highest 3-point frequency
The lone game that has no playoff importance of any kind on Tuesday is the Magic facing the Spurs, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t players to like. Between tanking and legitimate injuries, the Spurs will almost have to play Devonte’ Graham at a guard position for 28-32 minutes in this game. Graham is shooting 21-42 from beyond the arc in his last four games to go along with a 23.4% usage rate and 1.07 points per minute. Those numbers will go even higher if Keldon Johnson and/or Jeremy Sochan sit this game out so we do have some other value options to go along with the big-money players.
5. Portland is 22nd against point forwards
That’s going to be a nice boost for Julius Randle, as Jalen Brunson is doubtful to play for the Knicks on Tuesday. He’s sporting a 33.1% usage rate and has scored 1.45 points per minute without Brunson on the season and the Blazers are allowing the 13th-highest field goal rate in isolation. They have only faced it at about a league-average frequency, but Randle is scoring the 10th-most points per minute and shoots 45.4% on those attempts. He’s only going to have more of the offense tonight and is an appealing way to get a player from the late-night hammer.
