Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Saturday’s nine-game NBA DFS slate is loaded with some strong game environments. There are five games of over 230 points for the total and every game is under eight points for the spread. That should lead to some great plays for fantasy, so let’s talk about five players who can help us to the top of the leaderboard.
1. Mark Williams is questionable for the Hornets
I would lean toward Williams missing this game against the Jazz since the Hornets have zero incentive to push him and he missed the second half of the past game. If that’s the case, Nick Richards is likely to be one of the chalkiest players on the slate. His rates don’t exactly jump off the page at just 0.98 points per minute but it’s about the minutes that he’ll play, which should be close to 30. Utah is only 17th in rebounds allowed but they are also 27th in points per game allowed in the paint so there is a lot to love, provided Williams is out.
2. Luka Doncic is out for the Mavericks
Kyrie Irving is listed as questionable, but there are reasons to think that he’s going to be active for the matchup against the Grizzlies. This is a risky pick, but Jaden Hardy is only $3,100 on DK and $3,800 on FD. When Doncic left the game against the Pelicans, Hardy was who replaced him, and he played just about the rest of the way. Hardy only played two minutes before Doncic left the floor so his increase in playing time was directly related to Doncic leaving the contest. While Hardy will be next to Kyrie Irving and the usage rate he soaks up, Hardy has jumped up to 1.01 points per minute and a 27.3% usage rate (which will drop next to Kyrie). The Mavericks have struggled to defend for over a month now and need as much scoring as they can get without Luka, so Hardy could pay off handsomely.
3. The Pelicans are 15th in points per game allowed in the paint
To take it one step further, the Pelicans have allowed the highest field goal rate within five feet of the basket at 69.3%. They are seventh in attempts allowed but Shai Gilgeous-Alexander can get to his spots on the floor with his relentless attack of the rim as he leads the league in drives per game at 24.0. Not to reignite the argument about the Thunder tanking or not tanking, but Gilgeous-Alexander has played 37 and 36 minutes in his games since he returned from injury. Yes, Oklahoma isn’t allowing him to play back-to-backs, but they are letting him play when he’s active. Provided that stays the same, Gilgeous-Alexander is a screaming value on DK at just $9,200 as he’s scoring 1.42 points per minute.
4. Golden State is down to seventh in the Western Conference
It looked like we were in for a trademark game from Stephen Curry Thursday as he was sitting over 30.0 DK points in the middle of the second quarter. It wasn’t to be since he and the Warriors limped to the finish line in a loss in Memphis but it was another reminder of the ceiling for Curry. The matchup isn’t as intimidating as some may think, according to the FTN Advanced DvP Tool—
Curry is going to see Jrue Holiday’s defense through this game but he’s also sitting on a 30.5% usage rate and 1.45 points per minute. Curry is likely to be fairly low rostered compared to some of the other guard options (and there are a ton) and Curry always has a nuclear upside. We should also note that the Warriors are favorites for this game, which means someone from Milwaukee could be missing from their lineup.
5. Devin Booker scored 57.25 DK points in under 28 minutes in the last game
The Suns saw disaster strike in the warmups Thursday as Kevin Durant sprained his ankle and will miss considerable time. Enter Booker, who went bonkers on the Thunder and now gets to face off against the Kings. Sacramento is only 25th in defensive rating but just as importantly, they are 10th in pace. That’s a huge boost for Booker since Phoenix is 23rd in pace on the season and in the last 15 games, Sacramento is 25th against primary ball handlers and 17th against scorers. Booker has this offense wide open to take a ton of shots and the matchup has been one we’ve attacked all season long.
