Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
It’s a quiet night in the NBA Friday, with only six games, but five of them are within 8.5 points for the spread. There is only one game that is into the double-digits, that is the Nuggets hosting the Spurs, but even that game still has plenty of fantasy appeal. Let’s look at the DFS outlook.
1. Kyle Kuzma is fifth in points per game as a spot-up shooter
The field goal rate isn’t exactly pretty at 37.8% but he’s attempting the second-most field goals in this play type. Atlanta only allows the 12th-fewest points per game but the volume of shots for Kuzma overcomes that, not to mention the FTN Advanced DvP Tool tells us that the Hawks are 30th against scorers –
He remains the cheapest of the main three Wizards on both sites and that helps to raise his appeal in a game that is sporting a 238-point total and leads the NBA Game Environment Tool for the Stack Rating.
2. Joel Embiid is scoring the second-most points per game in the post-up
That’s got to scare the Portland Trail Blazers a bit since they allow the fifth-highest field goal rate in that play type, not to mention that Embiid is just impossible to defend as it is. Blazers center Jusuf Nurkic played in the last game but only logged about 17 minutes since he’s been out for a month. It’s hard to project him for any kind of big jump in minutes, so Embiid will see some of Drew Eubanks, a mismatch in every sense of the word. In the past 15 games, Portland is 26th against skilled centers and 23rd against scorers. Embiid is one of the more appealing spend-up options on the board in this spot and the 76ers are only two games behind the Celtics for the second seed in the East.
3. The Wolves play at the fourth-fastest pace in the league
After the Nets pulled all sorts of shenanigans Thursday, they should have their full team ready to go Friday. They get a great pace-up spot against the Wolves and Mikal Bridges has been mostly fabulous in a Nets uniform. He’s scoring 1.22 points per minute and has a usage rate of over 26% and he only played 12 minutes of the game Thursday. Bridges has been playing 40 minutes when the game requires it and he’s shown that he can score over 50.0 DK points. I’m not sure the salary has adjusted on either site fully to what Bridges is producing in his new role and he’ll likely be tasked with defending Anthony Edwards for most of the game. Edwards is currently tied for the sixth-most turnovers per game at 3.4 so Bridges has some bonus potential for steals.
4. The Spurs allow the highest field goal rate from beyond the arc
We’ve talked about this before but it’s not particularly close, as the Raptors are second in field goal rate allowed and they are at 37.7%, 1.9% lower than San Antonio. Michael Porter of the Nuggets let us down in the last game, but he only played 24 minutes due to a blowout and shot just 5-of-13 from the floor. That is not as likely to happen Friday since he’s shooting 41.0% from deep this season while the salary is still extremely reasonable, especially on DK where he gets the 3-point bonus.
5. Since Feb. 10, Fred VanVleet is seventh in touches per game
That date is important, because it was the point where Jakob Poeltl was acquired by the Raptors and VanVleet is averaging more touches than players such as Jalen Brunson, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Joel Embiid. VanVleet has jumped up to 1.18 points per minute in part because he’s running the pick-and-roll at a 39.5% frequency and has developed chemistry with Poeltl in that play type. In that same period, VanVleet is eighth in potential assists while he’s also scoring 7.4 points per game as the ball handler. While the Los Angeles Lakers have been dramatically better on defense since the trade deadline, they still have allowed the third-most points per game to ball handlers in the pick-and-roll so there is a lot to love from VanVleet in the late-night hammer tonight, including being defended by D’Angelo Russell and Dennis Schroder.
