Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
It’s a busy day in the NBA Saturday with 11 total games, nine of which are on the main DFS slate. That’s where the focus will lie in this article below, but all 11 games will be covered in the game-by-game breakdown as always. There are some fantastic matchups Saturday, so let’s dive in and find the players that we’re chasing.
1. The Rockets are without Kevin Porter and Jalen Green
I wasn’t sure we would get to a point where Alperen Sengun was nearly $9,000 on DK, and I would be super excited to play him, but here we are. The Rockets are facing the Pistons, and the matchup for Sengun is spectacular –
He only has 184 minutes on the court without both of these players but in that sample, he’s produced 1.40 points per minute with a 23.9% usage rate. Sengun has two triple-doubles in his past nine games and he’s hit at least 54.0 DK in three of the past five contests. Detroit is 28th in points per game allowed in the paint and 19th in total rebounds allowed so despite the high salary, Sengun still has an upside that he can reach in this spot.
2. Kevin Huerter is attempting 6.9 3-point shots per game
The Minnesota Timberwolves played Friday night, so the defense may not be quite at the same level Saturday in the back-to-back. As it stands, they allow the fourth-highest field goal rate from beyond the arc and the ninth-highest frequency allowed. Huerter is only at 0.90 points per minute on the season but when you catch him on the nights when the 3-point shot is dropping, he can rack up DK points in a hurry. Both teams are in the top eight in pace and the total is among the highest on the slate while Huerter is still under $5,500. He’s also shooting 41.8% from downtown and the Wolves are 22nd against shooters, so this is an easy route to get exposure to this game environment.
3. Cameron Johnson is shooting 13-24 from a 3-point distance since his return
That return has covered four games after a knee injury. Saturday, he gets to face off against the Spurs. This team is the worst at defending the 3-point line and it’s not particularly close right now. They allow a 40.2% field goal rate and the Pacers are 29th at 37.4%, which is an extreme difference at this point of the season. Johnson also played 33 minutes Friday night, so he is set for his minutes being back to normal. The Suns are still missing multiple rotation players, so the offensive role for Johnson is higher than normal as well. If that wasn’t enough, the Spurs are dead last in points per possession allowed to spot-up shooters and Johnson leads the league with 6.8 points per game. The Spurs are also 20th against scorers and they are 30th in defensive rating with the seventh-fastest pace, making this a great spot for Johnson.
4. Spencer Dinwiddie scores 1.30 points per minute without Luka Doncic and Christian Wood
The Dallas Mavericks are without both players when they travel to Utah, so Dinwiddie is likely to be very popular, especially once the field sees he scored over 50.0 DK points in the last game. The Jazz are only 15th against primary ball handlers and Dinwiddie played just under 40 minutes, so we know that aspect is not in doubt. Dinwiddie is driving to the basket 10 times per game and that will only increase without Doncic and the Jazz are 27th in points per game allowed in the paint. In addition, they are eighth in points allowed when defending isolation and Luka was leading the league in points scored, so there will be an opening in the offensive plays for Dinwiddie. My initial lean is to eat the chalkiness that I expect since he has a 34.9% usage rate because it’s a larger slate so we can find a gem to pair with Dinwiddie to get different.
5. Precious Achiuwa played 22 minutes in the second half Friday night
The Raptors played the Warriors Friday and OG Anunoby took a nasty spill, leaving the game after just 10 minutes. Achiuwa started the second half ahead of him and left the court at 4:27 left in the third quarter. He then came back on with 2:45 left in the third and never left the floor, logging just over 36 minutes. I would be very surprised if Anunoby played, as he is the subject of trade rumors and Achiuwa is not priced accurately for that scenario since the slate came out long before the injury happened. He could be popular tonight but he’s generating 0.97 points per minute while Portland is just 23rd in points per game allowed in the paint. Achiuwa scores just 3.3 points per game in the paint but we have to remember that he’s only averaging 21.1 minutes per game, and that should increase in a major way Saturday.
