Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
There is a showdown slate in the evening, but for this article we’ll focus on the options for the two-game slate in the afternoon and the four-game slate in the evening.
The challenge in the early slate is going to be trying to squeeze in Luka Doncic, while the evening slate has a multitude of questionable stars. We’ve got work to do, so let’s get to it and find five stats to help us today.
1. The Clippers allow the 11th most points per possession in isolation (Early)
On such a short slate, Luka Doncic is going to have the highest odds of scoring the most fantasy points, but it’s going to be a discussion if he’s worth paying up for. The minutes are among the most secure in the league because even in an utter blowout of the Heat on Friday, Doncic still absurdly played almost 38 minutes. The Mavericks were up by 25 entering the fourth quarter, and he still played seven minutes in the fourth, which is close to coaching malpractice. All Dallas has said for weeks is Doncic can’t play this many minutes, and when given a chance to sit him early, they don’t take it. With Christian Wood off the floor, he’s scoring 1.66 points per minute and has a 38.0% usage rate while the Clippers are 20th against point forwards. There could be enough value to make the salary work since he could outscore the slate by 10 points or more and Doncic is scoring the most points per game in isolation this year.
2. The Miami Heat allow the second-highest 3-point frequency (Early)
That’s a boost for the Pelicans, especially some of their more affordable players like Trey Murphy (39.8%) and Dyson Daniels (33.9%). However, it also helps CJ McCollum, who’s already shooting 39.7% from beyond the arc and the Heat are 11th against primary ball-handlers. Miami also allows the 10th-highest field goal rate when they defend the ball-handler in the pick-and-roll, while McCollum scores 7.1 points per game in that play type. It’s been rising with Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram out, while McCollum should log over 35 minutes today.
3. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is still under $10,000 (Main)
I’m not sure why that is the case, but I’m still excited about it and something is up on the Denver side because they are only a favorite by five points. They are also 25th in points allowed in the paint per game, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is still leading the league in drives to the basket and points scored from that play type at 16.2. It’s also possible that Jamal Murray will be out for this game, which likely leads to more minutes for Bones Hyland (also listed as questionable). If Gilgeous-Alexander gets a hold of Hyland trying to defend him, he should be able to get anything he wants offensively.
4. The Warriors are running a smaller starting lineup without center Kevon Looney (Main)
The salary might be high for Nic Claxton at $7,400, but it’s deserving since he’s scoring 1.19 points per minute and the small lineup is a great fit for him. The Warriors are in the bottom five in rebounds allowed per game and 14th in points per game allowed in the paint. Claxton is also 10th in points per possession for putbacks, while the Warriors are tied for the 10th-most points allowed in that play type. He’s not the prototypical big man, so he should be able to keep up with the pace (Golden State is first in pace) and the small lineup should allow him to have a big day on the glass, leading to real points and fantasy points alike.
5. Jusuf Nurkic is scoring 1.19 points per minute (Main)
The minutes have been lower for Jusuf Nurkic lately, but the matchups have not been a cakewalk. That aspect changes for him tonight against the Lakers –
Nurkic has a 22.4% usage rate and is scoring 5.6 points per game in the paint. Los Angeles is in the bottom five in paint points allowed per game, while they also are 28th in rebounds allowed per game. Lastly, the Lakers are allowing the seventh-most points per game when they face post-ups, and Nurkic is scoring the seventh-most points. The salary is a little high given the recent production, but I think 50 DK points are within reach for Nurkic in this matchup.
