Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
There might be just six games on the NBA DFS slate for Tuesday night, but the stars are out. We have Nikola Jokic, LeBron James, Ja Morant, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Anthony Edwards and a returning Devin Booker, among others. Let’s talk about five stats that are going the help us kick off the lineup-building process.
1. Brandon Ingram is mispriced on both sites
The DraftKings salary is especially crazy as in the past two games, Ingram has scored over 45.0 DK points. He’s only $7,100 and the Pelicans are still without Zion Williamson, which leaves Ingram with 1.22 points per minute. Atlanta also represents a strong matchup on top of it as well –
The Hawks are 10th in pace on the season and since Ingram has come back, he’s averaging 63.0 touches per game and has taken an average of 21 field goal attempts per game. With his minutes going as high as 36, it’s probably one of the last times we’re going to see Ingram at this salary.
2. Cam Thomas has taken 52 shots in the past two games
Thomas has taken the reins in the offense in the past two games and is shooting with no remorse, hitting 31 shots and that includes 11-16 from beyond the arc. I think the FD salary is really getting up there and is a little less appealing, but $5,200 on DK still feels like a strong play. The Suns are in the top 10 against scorers and we should expect the shooting to cool off to be sure. Even if he scores 20 fewer DK points, that still leaves him in the 35-38 point range and he’d be perfectly fine scoring that amount of DK points and we know where the ceiling is.
3. Xavier Tillman is averaging 28 minutes per game in the past four games
He’s been inserted into the starting lineup for the Grizzlies as of late and is logging plenty of minutes, topping out at 32 Sunday night. In those games, he’s also averaging 16.5 rebound chances per game while Chicago is 13th in rebounds allowed per game and 18th against rebounders. If he’s continuing to start, his salary is appealing on each site, and on FD, he might be the cheapest center that you’d feel very comfortable playing. Tillman is just under 1.00 points per minute but the Bulls play Nikola Vucevic for big minutes, leading me to believe he’s going to get plenty of time on the court.
4. In 20 games against Rudy Gobert, Nikola Jokic averages 20.2 points, 10.1 rebounds and 7.3 assists
To put it bluntly, Gobert is not a reason to not play Jokic –
There have been some poor performances against Gobert, but at the same time, four of the past eight games for Jokic have been at 72.0 DK points or more for Jokic. Minnesota is only 16th in points per game allowed in the paint and 27th in rebounds allowed per game, both things that Jokic can exploit. Gobert is second in rebound chances per game but Jokic is eighth and the Wolves are sixth in pace, a nice bump for Jokic since the Nuggets are just 20th. With Jokic officially averaging a triple-double on the season, it’s hard to argue that he’s a bad play on any slate and I will be planning on having exposure to him and this next player as well.
5. LeBron James is 36 points away from the scoring lead in NBA history
There is little doubt that James will pass Kareem Abdul-Jabbar for the record in the next two games. While both of these next two Lakers games are on national TV and at home, it is likely somewhat unwise for us to try and inject the narrative of when James wants to break it. We have no way of knowing his mentality, and while it could come Tuesday, James is expensive for his average of 54.4 DK points. On FD, the salary makes more sense since he’s cheaper than Anthony Davis but Davis could turn out to be the best Laker play of the night. He’s coming off destroying the Pelicans for 63.5 DK points and the Thunder are 19th against skilled centers. They are also 22nd in points per game allowed in the paint while Davis is leading the league in that points scored in the paint. As things are looking right now, most of my lineups will have Jokic or Davis in them and I’ll be sure to play some James in my 20-max contests just in case.
