Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
We only have four games on the Sunday main slate, and all four of them have a spread of five points or less. That is interesting because the Denver Nuggets played Saturday night and are two-point underdogs against the Minnesota Timberwolves, which leads you to believe the Nuggets are sitting some player(s).
Let’s talk about some stats that are going to help build those lineups.
1. Tyrese Maxey is attempting 6.2 3-point shots per game
The 76ers have had Tyrese Maxey come off the bench since his return from injury, but that’s benefiting him in the form of logging some minutes without James Harden on the floor. Using the last game against the San Antonio Spurs as an example, Maxey played 27 minutes and roughly 21 of them came without Harden on the floor. That has given Maxey a boost in usage rate to 31.3% and 1.17 points per minute, while the Knicks are just 29th against primary ball-handlers via the FTN Advanced DvP Tool –
In addition, Maxey shoots 39.4% from beyond the arc and the Knicks are allowing the fourth-highest frequency in the league (to their credit, they are seventh in field goal percentage allowed). Maxey is still very affordable for tonight’s slate, and the role is better than it appears on the surface.
2. Fred VanVleet is sixth in touches per game since January 27
That date is important because that is the game in which OG Anunoby was injured and played only 10 minutes against the Warriors. Since then, Fred VanVleet is averaging 93.0 touches per game, and that’s more than players like Ja Morant, James Harden and Damian Lillard. It makes sense that he has a 27.4% usage rate and 1.23 points per minute without Anunoby on the floor, and he’s taken 19, 25 and 22 field goal attempts across the past three games including 28 from a 3-point distance. This game against the Grizzlies is just two points behind the highest total of the evening, and the salary for VanVleet simply hasn’t risen enough for his touches right now.
3. Brandon Ingram is still just $7,100
Jonas Valanciunas is due to get an MRI on Sunday, so it’s hard to imagine that he’s going to play in this game against the Kings. When he’s off the floor along with Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram has a 171-minute sample size with 1.37 points per minute. He’s only gotten stronger over the past three games with 37, 48.75 and 45.75 DK points. Even though this is a back-to-back set for the Pelicans, they have been tumbling down the standings in the Western Conference and can ill-afford to give games away. Ingram continues to shoot with no reservations, totaling over 100 in the past five contests.
4. Bones Hyland appears to be done in Denver
Bones Hyland has not played in the past two games now, and rookie guard Christian Braun has caught the eye of coach Michael Malone –
The minutes topped out at 32 on Saturday night, and that was a blowout game, but there is clearly a role on the team for him and he is the minimum salary on DK. On the season, the points per minute are just 0.62, but that is not indicative of what he’s been doing lately. The Nuggets are underdogs to the Timberwolves tonight, so I expect them to be short-handed and Braun could threaten for 24-28 minutes again tonight.
5. D’Angelo Russell is scoring 1.05 points per minute since January 1
D’Angelo Russell has raised his game since the start of the calendar year and is doing so on just a 23.7% usage rate. He’s leading the Wolves with a 24.6% assist rate and a 63.9% true shooting rate, and we expect the Nuggets to be short-handed, which isn’t going to do much for their defense. They are only 14th in defensive rating, but that goes back and forth. On the second leg of a back-to-back, that isn’t likely to improve, and since the year started, Russell is 10th in touches per game at 84.8. He’s still extremely affordable for the role, and if Rudy Gobert and Kyle Anderson are out, the ceiling just keeps going up.
