NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
Making its long-awaited return from the 2020-21 NBA season, the “5 Stats to Know” DFS article will be returning for the post-All-Star Break NBA season. The articles will come every day, Monday through Friday, provided by yours truly, to help you gain a quantitative edge on the rest of the field when identifying core plays.
The format of this article is simple. I will provide five stats that stuck out to me when diving into the day’s NBA slate. These could be derived from FTN’s suite of tools (Advanced DvP, NBA On/Off Splits) or from the NBA’s extensive library of statistics.
Make sure to check out all of the great FTN NBA offerings and fantastic NBA Tools, including our FTN NBA Odds Tracker and daily FTN NBA DFS cheat sheets!
Rajon Rondo, PG, Cleveland Cavaliers (@ DET)
With Darius Garland, Caris LeVert and now-Pacer Ricky Rubio off the court this season, Rajon Rondo has posted a 37.5% assist rate
With such little backcourt depth Thursday, the Cavs are likely going to lean heavily on Rondo (as well as Brandon Goodwin) to lead their offense against the Pistons. In the outlined scenario, Rondo has averaged just about a fantasy point per minute (0.99) with a modest 18.2% usage rate. While these numbers won’t jump off the page, a matchup against the Pistons with nearly 30 minutes of potential playing time tonight will, especially for only $3,900 on DraftKings. Both Rondo and Goodwin are viable, but the ceiling with Rondo is where I prefer to go.
Anfernee Simons, PG, Portland Trail Blazers (vs. GSW)
Since Feb. 8, Anfernee Simons has averaged 87.8 touches per game
This is a 30.2-touch increase from what he had averaged on a per-game basis prior to Feb. 8 (57.6), as Simons has established himself as the best offensive player left on the Blazers’ roster. Over this span, he’s posted a usage rate over 28% while ranking 12th in the NBA in points per game (28.0) on 21.0 shots per game. The matchup is far from ideal, as Golden State has been an elite defensive unit for most of the season, but Simons’ sheer volume should outweigh the matchup concerns, especially given his $8,100 price tag.
Trae Young, PG, Atlanta Hawks (@ CHI)
In seven games without John Collins this season, Trae Young has posted a 36.8% usage rate
He’s averaged 34.14 points per game over this span while adding 10 assists per game, producing at a downright elite level without his offensively gifted big man. He’s averaged over two additional field goal attempts per game while seeing nearly a six-point uptick in DraftKings points per game (54.79). With Collins listed as doubtful against the Bulls, Young makes for an excellent target against a defense that is still missing their two best perimeter defenders (Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso).
Devin Booker, SG, Phoenix Suns (@ OKC)
In three games without Chris Paul last season, Devin Booker saw a 43.55% increase in DraftKings points per game
Booker averaged 36.46 DraftKings points per game in games with Paul active last season, and that number ballooned to 52.33 (+15.88) with Paul out. While the veteran point guard has yet to miss a game with Booker active this season, we can reasonably assume that Booker will take over as the primary ball-handler again now that Paul is injured, especially Cam Payne ruled out. The Thunder rank in the bottom half of the league against all three of Devin Booker’s archetypes — primary ball-handler (16th), scorer (20th) and crafty finisher (28th) — making him one of my favorite spend-ups on the entire slate.
Cam Thomas, SG/SF, Brooklyn Nets (vs. BOS)
Cam Thomas has posted a 29.81% usage rate in three games without Kyrie Irving, James Harden and Kevin Durant this season
Being so starved for offensive production when their superstars have been off of the court this season, the Nets have gotten elite production from Thomas off the bench. In these three games, he’s averaged 19.0 raw points per game on 17 shots in just over 30 minutes per game. Averaging nearly 30 DraftKings points per game in this scenario, there’s immediate value for his mid-range price tag of $5,800. The Celtics have been arguably the best defensive unit in basketball for the few weeks leading up to the All-Star break and rank fourth against bench players (per advanced DvP), but this is one of those scenarios where the potential volume and blowout run should outweigh any matchup concerns.
