Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
There are only five games in the NBA Tuesday, but there are some very fun matchups at hand. We have the Memphis Grizzlies facing off against a Denver Nugget squad that looks to be short-handed, as well as the Golden State Warriors traveling to Madison Square Garden to face the Knicks. Let’s get into some stats that can help build some DFS lineups and see what we like.
1. The center position is loaded again
The past two nights especially, playing just two center players on DK have been a difficult decision. That trend doesn’t look like it will be stopping tonight as we have options all over the board in different salary ranges but the player I’m prioritizing the most is Nikola Jokic of the Nuggets. While it’s funny to see his salary come down after a Wilt Chamberlain game, he seemingly has a good chance to be without Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. tonight. When those two players are off the court, Jokic goes to 1.73 points per minute while the Grizzlies are just 20th against skilled centers on the year. Even with the Nuggets missing some players, the spread is under three points and Jokic is in MVP form once again.
2. The Detroit Pistons are 30th against scorers this year
That should benefit Lauri Markkanen of the Jazz, who has played under 32 minutes in the past two games due to blowouts. He should be relatively fresh and the Pistons are also 27th against crafty finishers and 28th against skilled centers while Markkanen is sporting a 24.2% usage rate and 1.15 points per minute. His salary is still affordable for the ceiling he has shown this year and the pace in this game should be strong as both teams are in the top 17 and the Pistons are 29th in defensive rating.
3. Jimmy Butler is scoring 1.23 points per minute
The Bulls are 13th in points allowed in the paint this year while Butler is driving to the hoop 14 times per game, and he’s a player that can rack up stats in a hurry. He’s just below averaging 22/6/6 with over two steals+blocks per game and Chicago is in the top 10 in pace, a nice bump for Butler and the Heat since they are 28th. Butler is leading the Heat in front-court touches at 38.9 per game and his time of possession is higher than everyone but Kyle Lowry at 4.7 seconds. The salary is a little high but it’s a great spot since the Bulls are also 17th against scorers.
4. The New York Knicks allow the fifth-highest frequency of 3-point attempts
This is a bit of a mixed bag because the Knicks also hold teams to the fifth-lowest field goal rate but they’re not facing Klay Thompson every night. He’s playing 35 minutes a night when the game demands it and the Warriors have to try and survive without Stephen Curry for about a month. Thompson’s scoring is very needed because they aren’t going to win a ton of games when he’s scoring 17 points or fewer. Thompson is shooting 38.2% from beyond the arc this year but if the Knicks continually give him chances, he’s going to bury his fair share.
5. Devin Booker is scoring 1.38 points per minute for the Suns
Phoenix is missing some players tonight and I’m planning on Booker making his return. He sat out last night with a groin injury but he played Saturday for 42 minutes as he poured in 58 real points. The Suns are likely just protecting him after a massive workload but if for some reason he is out, Chris Paul is an easy pivot. The Wizards are only 22nd in defensive rating and they allow the ninth-highest frequency of isolation plays. Booker is outside of the top 20 in isolation scoring right now but his field goal rate is under 40%, something that isn’t going to last. Booker has proven he has a massive scoring ceiling at this salary and will be a strong target.
