Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
There are some marquee matchups Friday around the NBA and a late-night hammer rife with star power when the Denver Nuggets face the Los Angeles Lakers. We also have two early games with totals of over 237, so it’s a very fun DFS slate. Let’s find five stats to help us build some lineups to the 10-game slate.
1. The Hornets and Hawks have the highest total on the slate at 240 points
There is always a strong argument to be made about not locking a lot of salary in your lineup early on for any slate, because the NBA is the Wild West. You never know what curveballs you’ll get after the initial lock and flexibility can be a game-changer. However, we shouldn’t overlook a great game environment just because of start time and this one is one of the most appealing on the slate. Perhaps the best overall player with salary included is LaMelo Ball, who is probably going to be one of the chalkiest players on the slate. Atlanta is 22nd against primary ball handlers and 26th against scorers and his salary is wildly too cheap. He played 34 minutes in the last game and the salary went down after scoring 44.3 DK points and that makes very little sense. There are multiple great plays throughout this whole game.
2. The Sacramento Kings have allowed the fourth-most points per game off screens
That’s important because they face the player who is second in points scored off screens this season, Bojan Bogdanovic of the Detroit Pistons. The Kings represent a pace-up spot for the Pistons since the Kings are sixth and they are also 30th against shooters and 22nd against scorers. Bogdanovic is a threat to shoot 18-20 times per game without Cade Cunningham and he’s already been in trade rumors, as he would help myriad teams. He’s close to six 3-point attempts per game and is still hitting at a 43.2% rate and the salary is still perfectly fine. I believe he’s one of the more “boring” options on a large slate but the potential 45 DK points in the lineup wouldn’t be boring at all.
3. Jalen Brunson played 40 minutes in the last game
It was an overtime contest when the Bulls and Knicks tangled Wednesday night, but Brunson was not limited despite being seen in a boot the night before. The Bulls are ninth in pace, which gives Brunson a little bit of a bump and he’s scoring 7.8 points per game as the pick-and-roll ball handler. The Bulls are just average at defending that with 17.0 points allowed per game and a 43.7% field goal rate allowed. Brunson is sitting on a 26.2% usage rate and a 30.9% assist rate to back up the 1.13 points per minute and any time he’s under $7,000, that catches my eye.
4. Rudy Gobert is questionable for tonight
If Rudy Gobert sits out with an ankle sprain, Naz Reis is among the best plays on the slate from a point-per-dollar perspective, and he might be No. 1. The Wolves are taking on the Thunder and the matchup simply could not be any better if Reid draws the start. In his sample size of 195 minutes, Reid is at 1.36 points per minute without Karl-Anthony Towns (still out) and Gobert on the floor. I will be heavily invested in Reid even as chalk and I’m hopeful we don’t know his status before the initial lock at 7 p.m., so it could potentially hold his popularity down a bit.
5. The Lakers/Nuggets total is 237.5 points
This game is very appealing for fantasy, although we’ll want the most expensive players in it. With the potential value plays coming at center, Anthony Davis could be lost in the shuffle again. He’s routinely been under 15% on slates lately while he’s destroying anything in front of him at over 1.55 points per game. The Nuggets allow the 12th-fewest attempts inside of five feet but allow the highest field goal rate at 69.4%. Davis is still leading the league in points scored in the paint by almost three full points and I’m very much hoping he goes largely ignored again. If he happens to get Nikola Jokic into foul trouble (Davis is at 8.3 free throws per game), the Nuggets may have to put DeAndre Jordan on the floor to defend Davis and that makes me giggle quite a bit.
