2025 NBA Playoffs: Thunder vs. Grizzlies Series Preview and Analysis

The Memphis Grizzlies secured their spot in the playoffs after a dominant 14-point victory against the Dallas Mavericks and are set to face the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder.

Although the Grizzlies enter Round 1 as the eighth seed, they’ve been far better than their standing would suggest, playing in a tightly competitive Western Conference. In fact, at 44-29, Memphis held the fifth seed before firing former head coach Taylor Jenkins seemingly out of nowhere. They lost their first three games under interim coach Tuomas Iisalo but ended the regular season on a 4-2 run, going 1-1 in the Play-In Tournament. Even as one of the stronger eight seeds, Memphis is going to need all the help it can get against a juggernaut in Oklahoma City, which finished the regular season with a league-best 68-14 record.

In this series preview, we’ll break down each team’s strengths and weaknesses, analyze how they match up and use FTN’s model, which simulates every series 10,000 times, to project the most likely outcomes and best bets.

Oklahoma City vs. Memphis Grizzlies Series Odds

Before we dive into the matchup breakdown, here’s a look at the current series odds for Thunder vs. Grizzlies at DraftKings Sportsbook:

The top-seeded Thunder are an overwhelming favorite at -1800 at DraftKings Sportsbook. 

After simulating the series 10,000 times, FTN’s model gives the Thunder a 92.1% chance to win, compared to 7.9% for the Grizzlies. 

That data suggests that there is still some value in backing the Thunder, but at these prices, taking them to win the series outright is essentially unplayable.

Thunder vs. Grizzlies: Regular Season Matchup Results

The Thunder swept the Grizzlies in the regular season, winning all four games by double-digits with an average margin of victory of 18.75 points.

Key Trends from the Season Series

• Oklahoma City was the much superior team on both sides of the ball, winning all four games by 13-plus points.
• The most competitive game of the series was back in February, the one time Memphis had all three of Ja Morant, Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. Although the Grizzlies lost, they had a slight edge in field goal percentage (44.4%) and defensive rating (128.5).

Major Takeaways

• Oklahoma City has a significant edge across the board, dominating Memphis at home and on the road, despite playing at less than full strength with Chet Holmgren out in three out of four games.
• Memphis never really stood a chance in any game but was significantly better with its big three, Ja Morant, Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. all active.

Thunder vs. Grizzlies: Matchup Breakdown & Statistical Comparison

Pace & Play Style

The Grizzlies lead the league in possession per game (103.69), but the Thunder are not too far behind (100.90), checking in at fifth overall.

Offensive & Defensive Ratings

Edge: Oklahoma City. The Thunder lead the league in both defensive rating (106.6) and net rating (12.7) with a top-three offense (119.2). 

Shooting & Efficiency

Edge: Oklahoma City. The Thunder are edging out Memphis in effective field goal percentage (56%), true shooting percentage (6th) and three-point percentage (37.4%). The Grizzlies do, however, have the advantage over the Thunder in free throws per game, getting to the line at the second-highest rate in the league.

Rebounding, Turnovers & Possession Metrics

Edge: Memphis. The Grizzlies rank inside the top three in total rebound rate (51.8%) and offensive rebounds rate (33.0%), holding a significant edge over Oklahoma City in both categories. The Thunder, however, have been much better taking care of the ball, leading the league in turnover rate (11.6%), compared to 24th (15.1%) for the Grizzlies. 

Thunder vs. Grizzlies Key Player Matchups

Basketball is a team sport, but these individual player matchups could decide who moves forward in this matchup. 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs. Ja Morant

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – Oklahoma City Thunder

• Games Played: 76
• Stats: 32.7 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 6.4 APG
• Shooting Splits: 51.9% FG, 37.5% 3PT, 89.8% FT
• Advanced: 56.9% eFG, 30.7 PER, 16.7 Win Shares

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the MVP for Oklahoma City and likely the NBA, rarely ever missing time and setting career-best marks in points per game (32.7) and win shares (16.7).

The key for Gilgeous-Alexander: Can he sustain his MVP caliber play in the postseason? Gilgeous-Alexander has been as consistent as it gets as both a shot-maker and in creating shots, and I expect no difference in the postseason.

Ja Morant – Memphis Grizzlies

• Games Played: 50 
• Stats: 23.2 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 7.3 APG
• Shooting Splits: 45.4% FG, 30.9% 3PT, 82.4% FT
• Advanced: 50.4% eFG, 19.3 PER, 3.5 Win Shares

Ja Morant missed significant time due to a suspension, and although his numbers are slightly down relative to the last two seasons, he’s been the leader of the offense as both a scorer and distributor when on the court. 

The key for Morant: Is he healthy? Morant picked up an ankle injury against the Warriors in Round 1 of the Play-In Tournament but didn’t show any signs of limitations last night, despite being listed as a game-time decision.

Jalen Williams vs. Desmond Bane

Jalen Williams – Oklahoma City Thunder

• Games Played: 69
• Stats: 21.6 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 5.1 APG
• Shooting Splits:  48.4% FG, 36.5% 3PT, 78.9% FT
• Advanced: 53.7% eFG, 20.3 PER, 7.8 Win Shares

Jalen Williams took a massive leap in his third year, setting career-highs across the board in points (21.6), rebounds (5.3) and assists (5.1) per game while stepping up in the absence of Chet Holmgren.

The key for Williams: Can he continue to be a reliable scoring option alongside Gilgeous-Alexander? There will be a lot of attention on Gilgeous-Alexander, opening up a lot of opportunities for Williams.

Desmond Bane – Memphis Grizzlies

• Games Played: 82
• Stats: 12.2 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 2.0 APG, 47.7% FG, 33.0% 3PT
• Shooting Splits: 47.7% FG, 33.0% 3PT, 81.3% FT
• Advanced: 53.7% eFG, 13.3 PER, 6.3 Win Shares

Desmond Bane has been a man on a mission this postseason, doing a little bit of everything for Memphis, averaging 26 points, 5 rebounds and 6.5 assists over his last two games in the Play-In Tournament.

The key for Bane: Can he overcome the Oklahoma City defense? Bane was a ghost in the last two meetings against the Thunder, scoring no more than 15 points in either game, averaging only 9.0 points on 13.0 shots. Without Bane’s scoring, the Grizzlies won’t have a shot in what will ultimately be a short series.

Series Prediction: Thunder vs. Grizzlies

The sportsbooks and the model both see Oklahoma City as the significantly better team.

FTN Model Prediction: Thunder

According to FTN’s model, this series projects to be short, with the Thunder winning in 4-5 games.

Sam’s Pick: Thunder in 5

I’m in agreement with the model and counting on Oklahoma City to continue performing at an elite level throughout the postseason. The Thunder have been the best team in basketball all season long, and I think they come out hot in Round 1 after a long break. Although Memphis has been feisty, the two teams are not on the same level, evident by the last four head-to-head matchups. 

Best Bets for Thunder vs. Grizzlies

Oklahoma City Thunder 3-0 After 3 Games 

-112, FanDuel

For all the things mentioned above, I think Oklahoma City handles the series from start to finish, staying undefeated against Memphis for at least the first three games. The Thunder should handle the first two games at home and will likely still be a decent favorite on the round in Game 3.

Final Thoughts on Thunder vs. Grizzlies

In conclusion, although this series could be interesting, with a lot of star power on both teams, Oklahoma City should take care of business with relative ease. The Thunder have arguably the best player in basketball and the much superior team on both sides of the ball, entering the series a lot healthier and well rested.