Who Wins the 2025 NBA Finals? Thunder vs. Pacers Predictions & Picks

And then there were two. The 2025 NBA Finals are set: The Oklahoma City Thunder will host the Indiana Pacers in Game 1 Thursday night. The Thunder reached the Finals by taking down the Minnesota Timberwolves, while the Pacers punched their ticket by defeating the New York Knicks.

For Oklahoma City, this marks their first NBA Finals appearance since 2012, when Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook led the charge. The Thunder has never won an NBA title, with the franchise’s lone championship coming in 1979 as the Seattle SuperSonics. Indiana, meanwhile, returns to the Finals for the first time since 2000 and is still seeking its first NBA championship after last winning the ABA title in 1973.

The Thunder entered the season with lofty expectations. Despite last year’s second-round playoff exit and questions about their youth, their roster was considered one of the most talented in the league. Led by MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, they delivered, finishing with a league-best 68 wins and storming through the playoffs, facing their only true test in the second round against the defending champion Denver Nuggets.

The Pacers took a very different path. Largely written off early in the year after a 10-15 start, Indiana caught fire midseason and hasn’t looked back. They haven’t lost back-to-back games since December and cruised through the East, knocking off the Bucks, Cavaliers and Knicks. Despite being underdogs in nearly every series, they’ve consistently exceeded expectations.

Oklahoma City enters as the heavy favorite, but Indiana has made a habit of silencing doubters.

Read on for a full breakdown of the Finals matchup, FTN’s betting model projection, and expert picks from the FTN team.

Series Overview: Thunder vs. Pacers Matchup Breakdown

Regular Season Head-to-Head

• Dec 26 @ IND: Thunder 120, Pacers 114
• Mar 29 @ OKC: Thunder 132, Pacers 111

OKC swept the season series, averaging 126 points per game and forcing 22 total turnovers. Indiana struggled to contain the Thunder’s shot creation and transition pressure, trends that could carry over into the Finals.

Thunder: Balanced, Explosive, Elite on Both Ends

• Regular Season Net Rating: +12.7 (2nd)
• Playoff Net Rating: +11.2
• Top Performers:
  • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 29.8 PPG, 6.9 AST, 57.0% TS
  • Jalen Williams: 20.4 PPG, 5.3 AST
  • Chet Holmgren: 16.4 PPG, 8.6 REB, 2.0 BLK

Oklahoma City is deep, versatile and 10-deep with rotation-quality players. They rank first in playoff defensive rebounding rate and have held opponents under 108 points in 10 of 16 games.

Pacers: High-Octane Offense, Underdog Mentality

• Regular Season Net Rating: +2.1
• Playoff Net Rating: +4.1
• Top Performers:
  • Tyrese Haliburton: 18.8 PPG, 9.8 AST (5:1 AST/TO)
  • Pascal Siakam: 21.1 PPG
  • Myles Turner: 15.2 PPG, 2.2 BLK

Indiana pushes the pace, leads the playoffs in assists per game, and has a 6–2 road playoff record. But they’ve struggled to contain elite offenses — something OKC will exploit.

Key Statistical Edge

Bottom line: Indiana’s strengths — depth, transition scoring, ball movement — are legitimate, but Oklahoma City matches them and executes better across the board.

Thunder vs. Pacers: NBA Finals Matchup Breakdown

Star Power: SGA vs. Haliburton

This matchup starts with two All-NBA guards, each the offensive engine of their team, but in very different ways.

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Averaging 29.8 points, 6.9 assists, 5.7 rebounds in the playoffs on elite efficiency (57.0 TS%, 52.3 eFG%), SGA controls the pace and creates consistently in isolation. He’s also defending at a high level, averaging 1.6 steals and 0.6 blocks per game. There is a reason he was the MVP this season: he’s arguably the best shot creator in the league.
• Tyrese Haliburton: At 18.8 points and 9.8 assists per game in the playoffs, Haliburton leads all players in total assists and has a 5:1 assist-to-turnover ratio. He’s shooting 57.3% true shooting and spacing the floor while creating for teammates at an elite level.

Edge: Thunder — Shai has been more efficient, more consistent, and has faced tougher defensive matchups. There is a reason SGA is the MVP. But if the Pacers want a chance to win this series, Haliburton is going to have to match SGA’s efficiency. 

Defense and Rim Protection

This is the clearest edge in the series.

• Thunder playoff defensive rating: 104.7
• Pacers playoff defensive rating: 113.6

The Thunder have held opponents under 108 points in 10 of 16 games, including shutting down Denver’s elite offense in key moments. Chet Holmgren (2.0 BLK/gm) and Isaiah Hartenstein (7.9 REB, 1.1 BLK) protect the rim, while Alex Caruso, Luguentz Dort and Cason Wallace form a high-pressure perimeter trio.

Indiana has improved defensively from the regular season, but they still allow 116.5 points per 100 in losses, and opponents are shooting 58.7% eFG against them on the road.

Edge: Thunder — top-tier defense that travels and protects the paint.

Depth and Role Players

Oklahoma City’s depth has been a strength all season:

• Jalen Williams is averaging 20.4 points in the playoffs on 60.4% TS.
• Chet Holmgren is giving them 16.4 points, 8.6 boards, and 2.0 blocks.
• Alex Caruso is shooting 52.2% from the field and leads the team in steals (1.8).

Indiana’s depth is productive but streaky:

• Siakam leads them in scoring (21.1) and has held up as a primary scorer.
• Myles Turner (15.2 PPG, 2.2 BLK) remains their key rim protector.
• Bennedict Mathurin, Aaron Nesmith and Andrew Nembhard offer shooting, but their shot profiles are inconsistent.

Edge: Thunder — depth is a strength of both teams, but the Thunder get better bench production more consistently and have more two-way contributors.

It’s difficult to identify any clear edge for the Pacers. While Indiana’s strengths — depth, transition scoring, ball movement — are real, the Thunder not only share those qualities but execute them at a higher level.

FTN NBA Finals Simulation Model & Best Bets

FTN’s proprietary NBA betting model simulated the 2025 NBA Finals 10,000 times, and the results align with the market, but are even more bullish on Oklahoma City. According to our model, the Thunder win the title in 94% of simulations, suggesting that current NBA Finals odds may actually undervalue their dominance.

Simulated Series Outcomes:

• Thunder sweep (OKC in 4): 33.7%
• OKC in 5: 32.2%
• OKC in 6: 18.9%
• OKC in 7: 9.2%
• Indiana wins series (any scenario): 6.0%
  • Most likely Pacers outcome: Pacers in 7 (2.8%)

Oklahoma City’s two-way efficiency, elite defense and half-court scoring consistency make them overwhelming favorites in nearly every scenario. Indiana’s best path in simulations involves high-variance shooting and forcing turnovers, both of which are difficult to sustain against the Thunder’s disciplined system.

Market Comparison: DraftKings NBA Finals Odds

• Thunder to win series: -700 
• FTN Model Implied Price: -1567 

By comparison, FTN’s model assigns the Thunder a 94% chance to win, which implies true odds closer to -1567. That makes the standard series price on OKC unbettable — but opens value in exact outcome and series spread markets.

Best NBA Finals Bets Based on FTN’s Simulations

1. OKC to Win 4–1 (+250, DraftKings Sportsbook)
   Our model gives this outcome a 32.2% probability (fair odds +211), offering a profitable edge at +250. OKC in 5 is the second most likely outcome behind a sweep, and more realistic if Indiana steals a home game.
2. Thunder -2.5 Games (-140)
   With a combined 66% chance of the Thunder winning in either 4 or 5 games, this series spread bet is a high-confidence angle. FTN’s model makes this line closer to -200, creating clear value.

If you’re betting the 2025 NBA Finals, the best approach may not be who wins, but how and when. FTN’s simulations reveal that Thunder in 4 or 5 covers nearly two-thirds of outcomes, giving you a sharper edge than just laying -700 on the series moneyline.

Stay tuned for more Thunder vs. Pacers betting predictions, player props, and expert picks from FTN throughout the NBA Finals. FTN’s expert’s will have their favorite bets in the NBA Bet Tracker all series long. 

FTN Expert Predictions: Thunder vs. Pacers Picks

In addition to our simulation model, we asked five of FTN’s top NBA analysts to weigh in with their NBA Finals predictions. Here’s how our experts see the Thunder vs. Pacers series playing out. 

Marshall Gershon

I’m picking the Thunder to win the series in 5 games. I expect Indiana to steal one at home, but over the course of the series, Oklahoma City’s depth and two-way consistency will be too much. The Pacers won’t be able to hide Tyrese Haliburton defensively, with no weak links in OKC’s starting five. The Thunder have multiple creators, elite rim protection and the ability to control pace, and I don’t see Indiana solving all of that four times.

The Pick

Thunder in 5

Alex Christenson

The NBA Finals are here, and as much as I’m excited to watch two teams full of multidimensional stars who love to play fast, I’m less optimistic about how many times we’ll get to see them play. The Oklahoma City Thunder have been the best team in the NBA all season and throughout the playoffs and are clearly the best team in this series. The Thunder are on the precipice of finishing one of the more impressive NBA seasons of the past few decades, as is their star, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. They face the Indiana Pacers, who are similar in a lot of ways, but not better in any way. The Pacers thrive on generating turnovers and knowing that their fast pace will wear teams at the end of games. OKC turns the ball over less than any team in the league and has a deeper, more talented roster than any team in the league. Indiana coach Rick Carlisle should have a few tricks left up his sleeve, but barring truly heroic performances from Tyrese Haliburton throughout the series, I struggle to see how the Pacers are going to keep games close, let alone win them. Indiana’s style is conducive to the occasional performance that is on the high end of positive variance. If their barrage of threes fall and the Thunder turn the ball over, the Pacers could steal a game, but not more than one. The Thunder will win the title in just five games.

The Pick

Thunder in 5

Nick Galaida

Can the Pacers beat the Thunder to win the NBA Finals? Probably not — at least according to the betting market. FanDuel has Oklahoma City priced at -750 to win the series, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander listed at -550 to win NBA Finals MVP. Those expectations are warranted, given the Thunder’s depth and their 8-1 home record during the playoffs. However, it’s worth noting that Indiana has gone 6-2 on the road during their run through the Eastern Conference. They were underdogs against both Cleveland and New York, yet eliminated both in six games or fewer.

Throughout the postseason, the Pacers have consistently created quality shot opportunities and taken care of the basketball. If they can continue to move the ball effectively without committing costly turnovers, this series could be more competitive than many expect. Indiana may not have the top-end talent — or enough home games — to raise the Larry O’Brien Trophy, but they’re capable of making this matchup interesting.

The Pick

Thunder in 7

Sam Choudhury

With a convincing 125-108 win in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals on Saturday night, the 4-seeded Pacers punched their ticket to the 2025 NBA Finals, where they’ll take on the top-seeded Thunder. Oklahoma City enters as a heavy favorite — and for good reason. The Thunder set the standard all season long, finishing first in both defensive rating (106.6) and net rating (12.7) entering the playoffs. They were pushed to Game 7 against the Nuggets, but otherwise faced little resistance, dispatching the Grizzlies and Timberwolves in four and five games, respectively.

Although Indiana has been a fun story, defense wins championships, and no team is better equipped to shut down Tyrese Haliburton and the Pacers’ high-octane offense than Oklahoma City. The Thunder feature two All-Defensive selections in Luguentz Dort (first team) and Jalen Williams (second team), plus MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The Pacers may manage to steal one at home, but the most likely outcome is a dominant OKC sweep to kick off what could be the start of a dynasty.

The Pick

Thunder in 4

Zac Graham

My NBA Finals prediction is almost identical to what I wrote about the Western Conference Finals two weeks ago. Oklahoma City was one of the best regular season teams we’ve seen in NBA history. Turns out, the league’s most dominant team is pretty good in the playoffs too. Who would have thought?

It’s not some genius move to pick the chalk to win the title, and jokes aside, 1 seeds lose all the time in the NBA playoffs. That includes this same Oklahoma City team, who lost to eventual West champion Dallas Mavericks in the second round last year. But the Thunder’s regular season dominance while consistently missing key rotation pieces due to injury was on another level this year.

Just like in their previous matchup against Minnesota, the Thunder beat the Pacers at pretty much every position from a talent standpoint. But what has caught my eye over the first three rounds is just how strong OKC is at home. Somewhat quietly, Oklahoma City has carried over their dominant home performance in the regular season into those playoffs. In a league where homecourt advantage seems to matter less and less as the years pass, the Thunder have not followed suit. After going a league-best 35-6 at home during the regular season, they’re 8-1 at the Paycom Center in the postseason, with their lone loss coming on a buzzer-beating three in Game 1 of the Western Conference Semifinals.

It’s not just the home record that’s impressive, it’s the dominant style in which OKC is dismantling playoff opponents in their building. The margins of victory for the Thunder’s eight home playoff wins are 51, 19, 43, 7, 32, 26, 15, 30. That looks more like the code Desmond entered in the hatch on Lost rather than a string of NBA playoff results. (Dating myself with that reference I guess.)

I don’t mean any disrespect by basically ignoring the Pacers completely coming into this series. It’s been an improbable run to the NBA Finals for them to mark the club’s East crown since 2000. I’ve been watching their ascent for months now after jumping on their win total back in January. But they’ll likely be an afterthought in basketball history when telling the story of the Thunder’s first NBA Championship. Indiana will be lucky to keep these games in the single digits, much less win one on the road.

Coming to any conclusion other than a Thunder series victory, barring injury, feels like living in an alternate reality. OKC in five.

The Pick

Thunder in 5

Conclusion: Thunder Hold the Edge, But Don’t Count the Pacers Out

The 2025 NBA Finals odds say it all: The Thunder are overwhelming favorites, and FTN’s model agrees. Oklahoma City is deeper, more efficient, and better on both ends of the floor. But Indiana has thrived as an underdog all postseason long, and their pace, creativity and hot shooting can still tilt a game or two.

If you’re betting the series, focus on how the Thunder win, not just that they will. Value lies in series spreads and exact score markets, with OKC in 4 or 5 covering two-thirds of simulations.

Check the FTN Bet Tracker daily for updated picks, player props, and live betting value throughout the Finals.