Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The NBA season is almost here. One of the most fun parts of the NBA and one of the best ways to find value in the preseason NBA betting, is awards. The markets for Most Valuable Player, Most Improved Player, Rookie of the Year, Sixth Man of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year and Coach of the Year offer ways to bet on a team’s success outside of the standard futures markets.
Let’s take a look at each award’s winner, see what leads to success, and find the best prices for us to bet. Today: MVP.
2024-2025 NBA Most Valuable Player Odds and Best Bets
Past 10 Winners
- 2024: Nikola Jokic (DEN)
- 2023: Joel Embiid (PHI
- 2022: Nikola Jokic (DEN)
- 2021: Nikola Jokic (DEN)
- 2020: Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL)
- 2019: Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL)
- 2018: James Harden (HOU)
- 2017: Russell Westbrook (OKC)
- 2016: Stephen Curry (GSW)
- 2015: Stephen Curry (GSW)
Key Takeaways from Past Winners
- The MVP is not just arguably the best player in the league for that season but also a clear candidate for the Hall of Fame.
- Seven of the past 10 MVPs played for a team with a top-three record in the league. The exceptions to this rule were the first player to average a triple-double since the 1960s and Nikola Jokic (twice).
- Voters are not afraid to award back-to-back MVP awards to the same player. It’s happened three times in the last 10 years.
- There is a good mix of positions, but lately big men have garnered more votes than guards.
- The winner was clearly the best player on his team.
- To summarize: We want someone who has HOF potential, can be the best player in the league, and do it on one of the best teams in the league.
Current Best MVP Betting Odds
Bets to Avoid
Nikola Jokic +400
It’s hard to pick against the guy who’s been the MVP in three of the last four seasons, but there’s just no value in doing it at this price. The Denver Nuggets roster is likely worse than it was last year, and the rest of the league found ways to improve. Jokic can certainly be the best player in the league, but it’s going to be tough for the Nuggets to be one of the very best teams. There also could be some voter fatigue.
Victor Wembanyama +2000
Although this could be a very fun bet to make, it’s not a good one. Wembanyama will compete to be the MVP sooner rather than later and might even win one someday. It’s not going to happen in his second season on a Spurs team that isn’t likely to make the playoffs let alone be one of the best teams in the Western Conference.
Joel Embiid +800
A player must play 65 games to win this award. Joel Embiid is not playing back-to-backs this season, which eliminates 15 games. That leaves just 67 games for him to possibly play. You are effectively parlaying Embiid to miss only two games outside back-to-backs with Embiid being the best player in the league. +800 is much too low for that kind of a bet.
Bets to Consider Later in the Season
Giannis Antetokounmpo +800
Giannis is still one of the best players in the league, and the Bucks should have a much smoother season than they had last year. Damian Lillard has had a full offseason to work with the team and get into tip-top shape. Milwaukee is unlikely to fire their coach again in the middle of the season. Antetokounmpo looked good in the Olympics, and we can be sure he’s done everything needed to be the best player he can be. I want to see how the team looks in some real games and if there are flashes of greatness, we’ll add Giannis quickly.
Anthony Edwards +1200
Karl-Anthony Towns is gone, which means Edwards will have to take over even more of the scoring burden for the Timberwolves. That’s going to be a big change for Minnesota, and I’m curious to see how things evolve. If everything falls into place, there will be a good chance for the Timberwolves to compete for the top seed in West and Edwards to garner MVP attention. Keep an eye on how things start, and we might add Ant to our portfolio early in the season.
Bets to Place
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
(+450, Caesars, 1U)
With all due respect to Luka Doncic and Nikola Jokic, Shai should be the favorite to win this award. The Oklahoma City Thunder are the most likely winner of the Western Conference and behind only the Boston Celtics for the best record in the league. It’s a great team with talented players and depth at every position. SGA is the clear leader and just on the cusp of being considered among the NBA’s top five players. I think this price only goes down, so I’m grabbing some now. Worst case, we have good equity in our portfolio. Best case, we’re ahead of the market on the player that should be the favorite to be MVP.
Ja Morant
There are not many longshots worth a wager in this market, but Morant is one of them. Assuming he can avoid live streaming on social media and the Grizzlies don’t have historically bad injury luck again, there is a very real scenario where Memphis is a top seed in the West and Morant is one again lauded as one of the league’s best players. The Grizzlies have a great team that is built perfectly for Morant. He will lead this team and will get almost all the credit if Memphis can reach their potential. At +3000 or better, there is value in betting on Morant to be the MVP.
