Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The NBA season is almost here! One of the most fun parts of the NBA and one of best ways to find value in the preseason NBA betting is the awards market. Most Valuable Player, Most Improved Player, Rookie of the Year, Sixth Man of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year and Coach of the Year offer ways to bet on a team’s success outside of the standard futures markets. Let’s take a look at each award’s previous winners, see what leads to success and find the best prices for us to bet.
NBA Coach of the Year
Past 10 Winners
- 2024: Mark Daigneault (OKC)
- 2023: Mike Brown (SAC)
- 2022: Monty Williams (PHX)
- 2021: Tom Thibodeau (NYK)
- 2020: Nick Nurse (TOR)
- 2019: Mike Budenholzer (MIL)
- 2018: Dwayne Casey (TOR)
- 2017: Mike D’Antoni (HOU)
- 2016: Steve Kerr (GSW)
- 2015: Mike Budenholzer (ATL)
Key Takeaways From Past Winners
- Eight of the last 10 Coach of the Year winners led a team with one of the three best records in the league. One of the exceptions led the New York Knicks to the playoffs for the first time in eight seasons in the largest media market. The other exception ended the longest playoff drought in NBA history for the Sacramento Kings.
- On average, the last 10 winners improved their team’s record by 12 wins over the previous season.
- On average, the last 10 winners beat their team’s regular season win total by 12 wins.
- Three of the last 10 winners were in their first two seasons as a head coach, but the other seven winners averaged almost 10 years in the NBA as a head coach.
- To summarize: We want a coach of one of the best teams in the league or a team that does something historic that can improve their team’s record year over year and beat their team’s regular season win total by 10+ games.
Bets to Avoid
Joe Mazzulla, Boston Celtics
+1200, FanDuel Sportsbook
The Boston Celtics won 64 games last season, the most in the NBA. They are expected to win 58-59 games, tops in the NBA. There’s just no room for improvement over those numbers, which limits Mazzulla’s chances of winning. Perhaps Boston wins 65+ games while Mazzulla masterfully manages the team through some sort of injury hell. That’s the only scenario I can see him doing enough to get first-place votes for Coach of the Year. I think +1200 is much too low of a price.
Mark Daigneault, Oklahoma City Thunder
+1800, BetMGM
Similar to Mazzulla, Daigneault and the Oklahoma City Thunder will be hard pressed to do markedly better than they did last season. OKC was the top seed in the Western Conference with the second-best record in the NBA. They are projected to do that again this season. No coach has ever won back-to-back NBA Coach of the Year awards, and I don’t expect that to change.
Bets to Consider Later in the Season
Willie Green, New Orleans Pelicans
+2500, BetMGM
The New Orleans Pelicans roster is kind of a mess. They traded for Dejounte Murray, who is not a good fit next to CJ McCollum Although McCollum has said he’ll move to the bench if asked to do so, it’s rarely a smooth transition when an established vet is asked to give up his starting spot. Brandon Ingram has been in trade rumors for months, and it was generally assumed that he would not be on this team to start the season. There are just two players on the roster that are taller than 6-foot-9. One is an undrafted rookie and the other a second draft pick the team made in 2022 and will be playing in the NBA for the first time this season after being stashed in Croatia.
Of course, looming over all of this is the health of Zion Williamson, who hurt his hamstring in the playoffs last season. Like I said, it’s a mess, but what if it all somehow comes together? Maybe McCollum takes to being on the bench and becomes a sneaky Sixth Man of the Year candidate. What if Zion finally is in peak condition and ready to play an entire NBA season? Could they somehow still trade Ingram for a reliable center? If it looks like the Pelicans can weather the storm, Green will be a strong candidate for Coach of the Year.
Bets to Place
Kenny Atkinson, Cleveland Cavaliers
+2200, DraftKings, 0.5U
Despite Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland and Evan Mobley combining to miss 84 games, the Cleveland Cavaliers won 48 games and finished fourth in the East with a shot to get to third on the last day of the season. Atkinson showed he can be a good coach with the Brooklyn Nets but was pushed out for Steve Nash. He takes over a team with a lot of talent that’s already proven it can be a very good regular-season team. If injury luck can get even a little bit better, the Cavaliers should be in contention for a top seed in the Eastern Conference. If Cleveland can be a 55-win team and second in the East, Atkinson is going to be the favorite for this award. I think it is a great way to invest in the Cavaliers’ regular-season success and worth a wager at +2200 or better.
Darko Rajakovic, Toronto Raptors
+8500, FanDuel, 0.25U
This is a bet on the high upside I see in the Toronto Raptors. Scottie Barnes was an all-star last year and has shown flashes of potentially being one of the better players in the NBA. Immanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett fit perfectly around him. The Raptors also have another 5-6 quality players to go with that top three. Rajakovic was a respected assistant before becoming the head coach of the Raptors. Although only three of the last 10 COY winners were in their first two seasons of coaching, they too were lauded assistants respected by the voting media. I think he can lead this team to almost 40 wins and a spot in the Play-In Tournament after winning just 25 games last season. Yes, it’s a long-shot, but +8500 is a great bet given how easily Rajakovic can check all our COY boxes.
