Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
The NBA season is almost here. One of the most fun parts of the NBA and one of the best ways to find value in preseason NBA betting is awards. The markets for Most Valuable Player, Most Improved Player, Rookie of the Year, Sixth Man of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year and Coach of the Year offer ways to bet on a team’s success outside of the standard futures markets. As we head toward the start of the season, we’re going to take a look at the best bets and histories of each award and find the best prices to bet.
Below: MVP.
2023-2024 NBA Most Valuable Player
Past 10 Winners
- 2023: Joel Embiid (PHI)
- 2022: Nikola Jokic (DEN)
- 2021: Nikola Jokic (DEN)
- 2020: Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL)
- 2019: Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL)
- 2018: James Harden (HOU)
- 2017: Russell Westbrook (OKC)
- 2016: Stephen Curry (GSW)
- 2015: Stephen Curry (GSW)
- 2014: Kevin Durant (OKC)
Key Takeaways from Past Winners
- The MVP is not just arguably the best player in the league for that season, but also a clear candidate for the Hall of Fame.
- Seven of the past 10 MVPs played for a team with a top-three record in the league. The exceptions to this rule were the first player to average a triple-double since the 1960s and Nikola Jokic twice.
- Voters are not afraid to award back-to-back MVP awards to the same player — it’s happened three times in the last 10 years.
- There is a good mix of positions, but lately big men have garnered more votes than guards.
- The winner was clearly the best player on his team.
To summarize: We want someone who has HOF potential, can be the best player in the league, and do it on one of the best teams in the league.
Bets to Avoid
Giannis Antetokounmpo +550
Damian Lillard +3000
Unfortunately, having a great teammate makes it harder to win MVP. Both players end up getting votes, which effectively takes votes from each other. Each player also gets less credit for the team’s success because they have the help of the other player. This is the biggest gap in talent of teams with two potential MVP candidates, but Damian Lillard will likely draw enough attention away from Giannis Antetokounmpo to make it hard for the Greek Freak to grab his third Michael Jordan Trophy. For Dame to win, Giannis would need to miss significant time, but then the team may not be good enough. Let’s cross both names off the list.
Kevin Durant +1400
Devin Booker +2000
Two great players on a team that could easily be the best in the NBA, but for the reasons mentioned above, will cannibalize each other’s chances of being MVP. There is also a chance that Bradley Beal plays well enough to make Kevin Durant’s and Devin Booker’s contributions seem less than MVP level. Another concern is the new 65 games played requirement to win awards. Durant hasn’t played 65 games in seven seasons. Booker played only 53 games last season. There are too many concerns to be either Sun.
Anthony Davis +3000
LeBron James +4000
This is final duo that have a chance, albeit it small, to play well enough to be the MVP. The Lakers have all the tools to be great in the regular season and compete for a top-three record, but that would exceed current projections in a very competitive Western Conference. There is also a lot of concern about either Laker playing enough games to be eligible — Anthony Davis hasn’t played 65 in six seasons and has only played 65 games in four of his 11 seasons in the league. LeBron James is entering his 21st season and has played 65 games just once in the last five seasons.
Joel Embiid +850
After finishing second in MVP voting to Nikola Jokic two seasons in a row, Joel Embiid won the 2022-23 Michael Jordan Trophy. He led the league in points per game, and the 76ers finished with the third-best record and was just a few games from the best record in the NBA. It’s possible to win back-to-back MVPs, but each of the last three players who did that raised their level even higher the second season. Stephen Curry, Giannis and Jokic all improved their counting stats and their team’s record. It’s hard to see Embiid being able to exceed last season’s performance with a new coach installing a new offense and the looming shadow of his unhappy, bearded, soon-to-be-former teammate.
Anthony Edwards +3000
I think Anthony Edwards can win the MVP, but the current market price is terrible. +3000 has a breakeven probability of 3.2%, which may seem low at first, but let’s think about what he would have to do to be the best player in the league on one of the best teams in the league. Edwards has the talent to someday win this award, but it’s just a little too early to expect him to be a top-five player in the NBA, let alone the possible best player in the NBA. His FIBA experience will help him improve like he has each season, but it’s too big a leap to make this season. As for the team, the Timberwolves are projected to be a 45-win team, which would be the 12th-best record in the NBA. I’d say there is much less than a 3.2% Edwards and Minnesota exceed expectations to the degree needed. +15000 would be a fun ticket, but that doesn’t exist.
Bets to Consider Later in the Season
Nikola Jokic +450
Nikola Jokic was second in voting last year, is the best player on a team that could easily have the best record in the NBA, and didn’t have the benefit of his team trading for a superstar like the Suns, Bucks and Celtics as a feather in his cap. So, why not bet it now? Prices in award markets change and often in a big way throughout the season. Early this year, most of the attention will be on the aforementioned three teams and not the Nuggets. Denver also has a tough schedule to start the season. Keep an eye on this market and around Christmastime hope the price gets to +800 or better if the Nuggets are intact despite losing a few more games than expected so far.
Stephen Curry +1400
The Warriors are not the strong candidate for a top seed they were in years past, but if Stephen Curry can be great and the veteran squad can avoid too many injuries, there’s a chance they could good enough to get the guard his third MVP. You also have to remember that the media votes for these awards, and the media loves a good story. Imagine all the great press Curry would get for playing great basketball in his 15th season and carrying the Warriors back to greatness. Draymond Green may miss team early and their schedule is tough to start, but check back after Thanksgiving and hope for a price +2500 or better.
Bets to Place
Luka Doncic +550
The Dallas Maverick has been a top-three favorite in the betting markets to be MVP the last few seasons but has yet to finish top three in voting. He’s one of the most talented players in the NBA and is the clear engine of his team’s success. Luka Doncic has struggled to start the season in great shape and generally use the first few months to build his conditioning. Dallas has also dealt with injuries to key secondary players and big changes in roster construction. This season, Doncic comes into the season in great shape after playing in FIBA and gets to play with a healthy, familiar Mavericks roster. The numbers when Kyrie Irving and Luka played together were good last season, Maxi Kleber is healthy, and the additions of Grant Williams, Olivier-Maxence Prosper and Dereck Lively will help win games. I expect the Mavericks to start the season strong and this price to only get worse over time. Let’s grab some Luka Doncic to win MVP now.
Jayson Tatum +700
Boston is expected to win the most games in the league, and Jayson Tatum is clearly their best player. He was top-five in MVP votes last season and will have the opportunity to put up the kind of stats needed to earn first place votes this season. The Celtics — along with the Bucks, Suns and Nuggets — are the top tier of the NBA this season. The Bucks and Suns have the double-star issue, which make things even easier for Tatum and Jokic. With all eyes on Boston now and an easy schedule to start the season, I don’t expect this number to get any higher. Let’s bet Tatum to be MVP. This is a great way to buy some stock in the Celtics success.
