NBA Game of the Day, 2/10: Kings at Mavericks

I know we’re all tired from enjoying the Super Bowl, but we have to fight through the fatigue because there is plenty of basketball left for us to handicap. No matter what happens, the NBA persists. There are 10 games for us to enjoy, but one game stands above the rest as the best contest of the evening. It’s the only game with a spread of less than four points and should clearly be the most competitive matchup.

There’s even more intrigue because both the Sacramento Kings and Dallas Mavericks look much different than they did before the trade deadline. It’s always interesting to see how squads adjust to key players moving to other places. Who will take the extra usage? How will the schemes be adjusted to maximize the talent that remains? I’m going to watch this game with a close eye because it’s a good chance to learn more about the Kings and Mavericks. I’ll also be paying attention because I think there’s a few wagers worthy of a bet.

Sacramento Kings at Dallas Mavericks

Current Line – Mavericks -1, 237
My Projection – Kings 119, Mavericks 116
Key Injuries – Anthony Davis, Dwight Powell and Dereck Lively II are out. P.J. Washington Jr. and Max Christie are questionable.

Sacramento Kings Moneyline 

-105, DraftKings

The Dallas Mavericks’ plan of establishing a dominant defense has been halted by injuries. Newly acquired Anthony Davis is going to miss at least a month with a groin injury. With Dereck Lively II and Dwight Powell already hurt, that leaves the Mavericks very thin at center. The defense will struggle to protect the basket in the minutes Daniel Gafford is on the bench. Things will be even more rough if both P.J. Washington Jr. and Max Christie miss the game. Those are the team’s best wing defenders, and without them, opposing players will be able to get past the perimeter and into the lane. Offensively, both Washington and Christie provide spacing with their three-point shooting. The starting five will still be solid with Gafford, Kyrie Irving and a few other good players, but the bench is lacking talent, and there will be serious limitations for Dallas at certain parts of the game tonight. When healthy, I rate this as a good team, but they are from that right now.

The Sacramento Kings are starting a three-game road trip, and I think they’re going to start it with a win. They were a better team with De’Aaron Fox, but he wanted to be traded, and that can be trouble for a locker room. There’s also the added benefit of having one less player who needs the ball in their hands. Without Fox, Domantas Sabonis and DeMar DeRozan can now run the offense and have even more space with Zach LaVine’s shooting. The Kings were able to improve their bench at the deadline with Jake LaRavia and Jonas Valanciunas. Overall, I think Sacramento is just as good as it was before the Fox trade, but the market has bumped the Kings down a few points. That makes them underrated in general, and even more so tonight given the matchup against a Mavericks team missing several key pieces. The Kings have guys who will attack the rim and be able to convert those chances into points. I have Sacramento favored by three, and the books have the Kings small underdogs. Let’s light the beam tonight and bet on Sacramento to get a win.

Looking into player props, our NBA Prop Tool at FTN is showing some nice edges on this event, and there is one in particular I like a lot. 

Daniel Gafford Over 2.5 Blocks 

-110, BetMGM

With Anthony Davis sidelined, there will be plenty of time on the court for Daniel Gafford and plenty of chances to block shots. We’ve seen Gafford play well as the only center on the team since Dereck Lively went out weeks ago. He’s stepped into the role and shown he can do the job well. He’s had more than three blocks in seven of his last 10 games, and our model expects him to do it again. We project Gafford to block 3.36 shots and would price this bet at deeper than -150. Let’s bet on it.

You can see all my picks and my record in the FTN Bet Tracker. If you have any questions about other games, drop them in the #nba-betting channel of the FTN Discord and tag me @noopschristenson. I’ll be sure to get back to you ASAP.