Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
The weekend, the NASCAR Cup series heads to Michigan for the FireKeepers Casino 400. Michigan is a two-mile intermediate track. For projections purposes, I also use Kansas and Auto Club as the most similar tracks along with Chicagoland and Kentucky for a larger sample size.
Of course, the betting research process is more than just simply looking at past finishes. To really help us pinpoint drivers, we need to incorporate some other stats. Two metrics I love to use to identify players for my builds are driver rating and percentage of laps in the top-15. However, simply calculating an average for these stats doesn’t necessarily give us an accurate view of what to expect. Like any athlete, drivers can trend up or down over time. To account for trends, I weight both metrics with the most recent races getting the highest weighting.
So let’s take a look at the weighted driver ratings and top-15 percentages for both the Michigan races and all races on Michigan and similar tracks over the last five NASCAR seasons.
Check out our NASCAR betting picks from the entire FTNBets NASCAR team!
Over the last five years, only four drivers has won here at Michigan. One of them is Kevin Harvick. He starts third, a spot which he won from in August of 2018. With five top-5s in his last eight races here, Harvick is one of top plays on the board. DraftKings currently has the best price for Harvick to win at +450.
Joey Logano also has two wins here over that span. It’s tough to trust Logano most weeks, but he’s starting first and won from the pole here in June of last year. FoxBet currently has a pretty tasty price on Logano to win at +900.
Matt DiBenedetto continues to be very quick on the track and is coming off a top-10 finish last week. He’s in play to do so again this week and is current +140 for a top-10 at FanDuel. You may also want to get some action in on his matchup props. DiBenedetto is current -140 head-to-head against Christopher Bell at William Hill.
