MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 5/15)
Josh Gross
Before we head into the PPV stretch, the UFC takes it back to the Apex Saturday for a fight card headlined by Sodiq Yuseff and Edson Barboza. Barboza is fighting for a sixth time in his new weight division, and Yuseff is returning from an injury that put him on the shelf for almost a year after his last win.
Also on the main card, Michel Periera was set to face off against Marc Andre Barriault, but Barriault was pulled from the fight with an injury. Andre Petroski will now try to capitalize on the opportunity and collect a check on short notice. Adrian Yanez and Jonathan Martinez also grace the main card as they look to put on a show for the fans in Vegas after missing out on an opportunity to fight at Noche UFC. Daniel Lacerda tries to correct his mistake after his fight with Edgar Chairez last time out was ruled a no-contest after a replay showed that Lacerda looked to have been submitted but never tapped. Lastly, the people’s main event kicks off the main card as Christian “Ceerod” Rodriguez faces Cameron Saaiman.
There are 12 fights on the card this weekend, and below, I break down the main card from a betting perspective and give you guys the best bet for each contest. All odds are per BetMGM.
Yuseff vs. Barboza Odds
Sodiq Yuseff -178, Edson Barboza +138
Barboza will one day be in the UFC Hall of Fame. Until then, he’s fighting his seventh fight at 145 pounds at 37 years old. Barboza has been a mainstay in the UFC since 2010, giving fans spectacular fights and knockout highlights for years to come. A world-class striker, Barboza has always been known for his devastating kicks, elbows and signature wheel kick. If there is any hole in his game, it would have to be on the ground. For a long time, Barboza was known for excellent takedown defense, but after being mauled by Khabib, the blueprint was clear for beating Barboza. Limiting his strikes, kicks and ability to use distance is essential to beating Barboza. Standing and banging with Barboza is never a good idea; he averages four significant strikes landed per minute, is accurate on 44% of his strikes and defends 70% of takedowns. It’ll be vital for him to lean on that takedown defense because for Yuseff to succeed, he will have to wrestle and close the distance. Yuseff is up against a two-inch height advantage and a four-inch reach advantage against one of the best strikers on the planet.
Even though Yuseff possesses fight-ending power himself, his striking and speed are levels below Barboza’s. He also absorbs nearly four significant strikes per minute. Still, from looking into his camp, I can gather that Yuseff will wrestle and limit the distance and damage by utilizing his grappling to tire and slow down Barboza. Sodiq has been training with the likes of Matthew Semelsberger and Gavin Tucker, to name a few stud grapplers. He also comes from a high-level jiujitsu gym led by Lloyd Irvin, who has created countless Jiujitsu world champions. Sodiq averages nearly six significant strikes landed per minute, connecting on 50% of his strikes thrown. Another important stat to note is that Sodiq is the younger fighter by seven years, and one of his best qualities is his durability. It’s not something I hope he displays much, but it will be helpful if this fight turns into a brawl. I’m confident that once the dust settles, as long as Sodiq stays clear of head kicks, he will find the knockout. Barboza is at a point in his career where the finish line is in view. A fighter like Yuseff is capable of maybe not retiring the legend but surely stopping him in the octagon Saturday night.
From a betting perspective, I can see this fight going into the later rounds, with both fighters averaging over 10 minutes of fight time. Still, with the amount of power each fighter possesses, I wouldn’t be surprised if an early stoppage occurs. I also wouldn’t rule out the possibility that Yuseff tries to use his jiujitsu and submit Barboza. Yuseff is coming off a submission win over Don Shanis, and if he indeed decides to take the path of the least resistance, then the sub may appear in some of the grappling exchanges. I will side with Yuseff and bet that he gets the job done by KO/TKO or submission, and I will also have a small bet on Yuseff by submission.
Bet: Sodiq Yuseff by KO/TKO or decision -115
Martinez vs. Yanez Odds
Jonathan Martinez -122, Adrian Yanez -105
Fresh off his first UFC loss, Yanez isn’t interested in any tune-up fights and faces off with the always-dangerous “The Dragon” Martinez. Martinez has been on an impressive streak thus far, beating the likes of Said Nurmagomedov, Cub Swanson and Vince Morales. He’s looking to extend his winning streak to six with a win over Yanez. Martinez is a crafty striker who fights out of a southpaw stance and utilizes heavy kicks all over the body. His most dangerous tool is his left leg, which he uses to break his opponents down, but he can also incorporate wrestling to limit damage and close the distance to land elbows in the clinch. Martinez is very well-rounded and fights out of a great camp in Texas at Factory X, and there is no doubt that to win this fight, he will have to incorporate all of his skill set to overcome Yanez.
Yanez doesn’t bring a vast Arsenal into the octagon. He utilizes mainly his boxing and elite counterstriking to get the job done. He also has a 100% takedown defense, which comes from his jiu-jitsu background. Yanez always has a high output due to the many combos he tends to throw. Yanez averages nearly seven significant strikes landed per minute and connects on 40% of the strikes he throws. His issue is that he absorbs about six significant strikes per minute, and if he hopes to win this fight and have a long career, he will have to limit the damage coming his way. The power edge in this fight goes to both fighters but in different regions of the body. For Yanez, the power is in his hands and lighting quick counters; for Martinez, his strength comes in his legs, with head kicks and knees in the clinch. Now, Yanez has excellent takedown defense and rarely initiates any takedowns, so if there is any wrestling in this fight, I expect it to come from the side of Martinez. Martinez averages just under one takedown per 15 minutes, and as he did against Said, I can see him utilizing the clinch to limit the boxing combos from Yanez. From a betting perspective, the fight is a pick ‘em with both sides having paths to victory.
For me, the difference is in the boxing and the fact that Martinez has had trouble in the past with boxers. Still, as much as I like Yanez, he gets hit too much, which was evident in his last fight. He may have rushed the finish and gotten caught, but this time, the kicks, the strength of Martinez in the clinch, and the lack of variety from Yanez makes me lean toward Martinez. Watching Yanez take one to give two is pretty and entertaining, but it doesn’t win many fights, and I think his last loss peaked a bit at his ceiling in the ufc. MMA at the highest levels requires more than just good boxing, and Martinez not only has more tools but also more experience at this level.
Bet: Jonathan Martinez ML -120
Pereira vs. Petroski Odds
Michel Pereira -200, Andre Petroski +154
Pereira is another fighter on an impressive win streak. He initially was scheduled to fight Marc Andre Barriault, but Barriault pulled out due to an injury. Petroski steps in on short notice to build on his split decision victory over Gerald Meerschaert. Petroski is a berserker with powerful hands and an aggressive wrestling style. He is 10-1 overall as a pro and 5-0 in the UFC. He has two wins by submission, two by decision and one by knockout. Stylistically, Petroski is exactly what the fans like to watch, as he’s a finisher. His downside is his gas tank, though, as it tends to affect him the longer the fight goes on. He has only been to two decisions in the UFC, but it was evident that if he hadn’t done so much damage early, he could’ve lost those fights by letting his opponents almost make a comeback.
From a numbers standpoint, both fighters present a formidable challenge. Petroski averages nearly four significant strikes landed per minute, lands about five takedowns per 15 minutes and attempts three submissions average per 15 minutes. Pereira averages five significant strikes landed per minute, attempts nearly two takedowns per 15 minutes and has a 94% takedown defense. His takedown defense will be vital for his success Saturday because even though Petroski has been training, stepping in on short notice is never an easy thing to do. Not to mention Petroski has never had a good gas tank anyway.
For me, I’m going to side with Periera on this one; he’s in a new weight class, so that combats any gas tank issues he’s had in the past, and he also has the takedown defense that will stifle Petroski and keep this fight favorable for Periera. Considering both fighters have never been finished inside the ufc, I will take a shot at the over on two and a half rounds. Both fighters are capable of finding finishes, but they also average over 10 minutes of fight time, and we only need 12.5 minutes to be successful.
Bet: Pereria vs. Petroski over 2.5 rounds +100 | Michel Pereria ML -200
Chairez vs. Lacerda Odds
Edgar Chairez -325, Daniel Lacerda +265
Two fighters on losing streaks look to right their wrongs this weekend after their initial meeting ended in a controversial no-contest. Edgar Chairez thought he submitted Lacerda back at Noche UFC. But a review of the ending sequence deemed Lacerda still awake, and the fight was ruled a no contest. That was Chairez’ second official UFC fight after being thrown into the deep end in his debut against Tatsuro Taira. Conversely, Lacerda was still searching for his first UFC win after losing his initial four fights with the promotion.
An exciting fighter, Lacerda has never been in a boring fight and has the tools to be successful. Still, Lacerda seems to have mental lapses in his fights that have cost him. For example, in his most recent battle against Chairez, he did well with his takedowns and seemed to have found a path to victory. But he left his head in a compromising position, and if it weren’t for the replay, we’d probably be talking about how Lacerda was cut. Lacerda is talented, but his durability and fight IQ are his most significant liabilities. This fight with Chairez is very winnable, but It’s up to Lacerda to keep focus and keep it together for however long the fight lasts.
Even though Lacerda technically has more time in the UFC Octagon, I am going to side with Chairez because he doesn’t have any durability issues, and he hasn’t been submitted in the UFC. He also has 60% of his wins by submission, so I’m reasonably confident that if it turns into a grappling match, Chairez has the chops to get the job done and send Lacerda to the chopping block for good.
Bet: Edgar Chairez by submission or decision +110 | Chairez by submission in rounds 1 or 2 +230
Saaiman vs. Rodriguez odds
Cameron Saaiman +128, vs. Christian Rodriguez -164
Kicking off the main card is the people’s main event, Saaiman vs. Rodriguez. Both fighters made their way into the UFC last year. Saaiman made his entry through the contender series last year and, since impressing the boss, has gone on to win three consecutive fights and currently sits 3-0 as a pro in the UFC. Rodriguez made his entry through the Contender Series as well, but back in 2021 against Reyes Cortez. The fight didn’t impress the boss enough, and Rodriguez was sent back to the regionals for another battle to prove he belonged in the UFC. He scored a quick first-round finish that led to a debut in the UFC against Jonathan Pearce. In that fight, Rodriguez had moments, but his low output and perhaps octagon jitters cost him the fight. Since then, Rodriguez has bounced back with wins over Joshua Weems and the UFC’s newest hype train, Raul Rosas Jr. Those fights displayed a well-rounded Rodriguez, who was able to capitalize on good takedown defense and win the war of attrition. Against Weems, he took advantage of a mistake and finished with an anaconda choke. Against Rosas, he stayed calm and weathered the first-round flurry from Rosas until he could turn the tide and win on the scorecards unanimously. This fight is well-matched, and both fighters have answers for the other’s skill set. The best bet here is a distance prop because both fighters are very durable and have yet to be finished inside the UFC. Not to mention that both fighters average over two rounds of fight time. I will lean toward Saaiman because of his volume and ability to perhaps blend better, but my money is on the over 2.5 rounds.
Bet: Saaiman vs. Rodriguez over 2.5 rounds -150 | Cameron Saaiman ML +128
