UFC Vegas 62 MMA Betting Odds (10/14)

After another short break, the UFC sets up Alexa Grasso vs. Viviane Araujo as the main event at UFC Vegas 62 this weekend. This weekend kicks off six weeks of action-packed fight nights and PPVs, like the highly anticipated fight between Islam Makhachev and Charles Oliveira at UFC 281 and Israel Adesanya vs. Alex Pereira at the end of the year.

With so many fights to look forward to, we first need to breakdown this weekend’s card and look for the angles that will bring us to the pay window. This fight card on paper may look a bit weak because of the lack of star power, yet there are a lot of good spots to make money. Below, I will break down each fight and tell you where I think you should place your money this weekend. All of my bets were placed on BetMGM.

Grasso vs. Araujo Odds

Alexa Grasso -225, Viviane Araujo +185

Grasso opened as a -190 favorite and currently sits at -225, as the 14-3 flyweight headlines an event for the first time in her six-year tenure with the UFC. A pro since 2012, Grasso entered the UFC in 2016 and has fought the best that the division offers. A striker at heart, Grasso will have to lean on her jiujitsu prowess to keep herself out of danger against the jiujitsu ace and black belt Viviane Araujo. Araujo is 11-3, with most of her fights ending by decision or submission. Both fighters average nearly five significant strikes landed per minute; Araujo absorbs about six strikes per minute, which is double what Grasso absorbs. Grasso doesn’t possess much power behind her strikes, so there aren’t any knockout concerns for Araujo, but the longer this five-round fight goes, the more success Grasso will have. Araujo’s best round is the first, as she comes out guns blazing and looking to break her opponents early. The last time Araujo was in a five-round fight was in 2018, and she wasn’t in the UFC and won because of an eye injury. This is a big test for both fighters, but I believe that Grasso will have enough tools to stay safe in the first round and turn it up in the later game and either find her own submission or win on the judge’s scorecards.

The Bet: Alexa Grasso by submission or decision -125 

Martinez vs. Swanson Odds

Jonathan Martinez -225, Cub Swanson +185

In a clash between the old school and the new, Cub Swanson goes down in weight to 135 pounds, looking to breathe new life into his career and perhaps go on one last championship run. Jonathan Martinez steps up to welcome the legend to his division in hopes of collecting a high-profile scalp. A win over Swanson will boost his stock and possibly get him higher in the rankings and closer to the top 15 of the division. In a style-for-style matchup, both fighters are similar in almost all aspects, with the slight differences coming in the form of takedowns, as Swanson attempts slightly more than Martinez. A recipient of multiple fight-of-the-night bonuses, Swanson is no stranger to bringing excitement to the octagon. As he gets closer to calling it quits, I expect him to be as violent as ever anytime he’s in the cage. Martinez currently sits as a moderate favorite at -225, and with youth and speed on his side, I believe the line is justified. Another fact to note is that Swanson is fighting down at 135 for the first time, and whether that affects him will be interesting. This fight is close and may end with a spectacular flash knockout or a close-fought split decision win and fight of the year contender. From a betting perspective, I will be siding with Martinez and bet that he finds the win in the third round or by decision.

The Bet: Jonathan Martinez in Round 3 or by decision +100

Askerov vs. Royval Odds

Askar Askerov -250, Brandon Royval +200

Another fight that has the potential for the fight of the night features Askar Askerov and Brandon Royval. Both fighters bring a similar style to the cage and fight with a lot of pace and pressure, usually putting their opponents on the back foot. Royval averages 7:11 of fight time, and while he is very technical, at times can get into brawls and put himself in danger. Royval averages 3.32 significant strikes landed per minute at a 36% accuracy rate. He may not be very accurate, but he does carry power, and with three wins by knockout and nine by submission, Royal is not a fan of going to the scorecards. Askarov, on the other hand, is a bit more calculated in his approach as the Eagles MMA product doesn’t need any flashy tools to win and leans on his accurate striking that sets up his game on the ground. Askarov averages 2.60 takedowns per 15 minutes, and with a 39% defensive rate against takedowns, Royval will have to work from his back if he hopes to submit or sweep Askarov. If Askarov wasn’t so well-versed on the ground, I would be more inclined to side with the dog and back Royval. Yet, I see this fight being exciting and a show for everyone, with Askarov coming out on top by points and this fight going the distance. 

The Bets: Askarov by points +125/Askarov vs. Royval over 2.5 rounds -145

Todorovic vs. Wright Odds

Dusko Todorovic -225, Jordan Wright +175

In the third fight on the main card, “The Beverly Hills Ninja” Jordan Wright faces one of my favorite fighters, Dusko “Thunder” Todorovic. These are two fighters who are not fans of leaving things to the judges. Wright averages only 2:06 of fight time and fights like his car is waiting for him in the parking lot set in drive. Todorovic fights similarly and averages over two and a half rounds of fight time at 8:44. I’d be lying if I said Dusko can’t lose in this matchup, with a history of being chinny; using a bob-and-weave style to defend. Todorovic came into the UFC undefeated. After suffering back-to-back losses for the first time, he bounced back with a knockout win over Maki Pitolo, then suffered his third loss to Chidi Njokuani in May. Wright is a hobbyist, a fighter who doesn’t come from the background most fighters come from. He doesn’t fight for the money and instead does this because of a passion for fighting. Wright’s issue lies in his willingness to fight fire with fire and end up on the wrong end of the exchanges. Wright averages over seven significant strikes landed per minute, and while that number is high, keep in mind he also absorbs the same amount. I’ve backed Todorovic in every fight so far in the UFC, and I think in this matchup, he is the more durable fighter of the two, and I think he will finish Wright before the third round. Expect nothing but fireworks in this matchup, and don’t blink.

The Bet: Dusko Todorovic in Round 1 or 2 -150

Cirkunov vs. Menifield Odds

Misha Cirkunov +180, Alonzo Menifield -225

In the heaviest fight of the night, two titans in the light heavyweight division face off in the second fight on the main card. Cirkunov and Menifield step into the octagon this weekend to keep this fight away from the judges. Both fighters are similar in their approach as they look to apply pressure and keep this fight against the fence until they can find an opening for a finish. Cirkunov finds his finish on the ground by submission, while Menifield looks to rush his opponents and use his athleticism and power to end fights with his powerful left hand. Both fighters average nearly four significant strikes landed per minute and are accurate as they land over 50% of their strikes. They differ in the takedown department, As Cirkunov averages 4.03 takedowns per 15 minutes, and Menifield averages less than one takedown at 0.82 per 15. The paths to victory for these fighters are simple and clearly laid out. If Menifield can negate the takedown attempts and keep this fight standing, I believe he can beat Cirkunov and possibly find a finish late in the second round or early in the third. I expect the fighters to feel each other out while Cirkunov grinds Menifield up against the fence. If Cirkunov can have success early, he can plant doubt in the head of Menifield and possibly even gas him out the longer the fight goes. Both fighters have an opportunity to win and must capitalize when the moment arises. From a betting perspective, I am going to go out on a limb and say that this fight goes over one and a half rounds, and the finish will come either in the second or third but not in the judges’ hands.

The Bet: Menifield vs. Cirkunov over 1.5 rounds -105

Davis vs. Martinez Odds

Brandon Davis +130, Mana Martinez -160

Kicking off the main card is another “fight of the night” candidate as Brandon Davis and Mana Martinez face off in the octagon and will surely bring fireworks. Averaging over 11 minutes of fight time and with a combined 16 finishes between the two fighters, this fight has the potential for the dog to come out on top. Mana Martinez is well-rounded and averages nearly four significant strikes landed per minute at a 50% accuracy rate. Martinez’ problem is that he sometimes can be a slow starter, and against Davis, who averages 4.63 significant strikes landed per minute, that can spell trouble in a three-round fight. While both fighters rather keep the fight standing and strike, they will have to mix in some takedowns in this fight if they want to steal a round or even possibly win. Martinez has horrible takedown defense and defends takedowns at a 12% clip which may help Davis in this fight. Davis doesn’t average many takedowns per 15 minutes, but if he can get this to the ground, he can dominate and even find a submission like he’s done in the past. I understand that Mana comes from a good team in Texas that houses fighters like Adrian Yanez, but in this matchup, I can see him losing to the more experienced Brandon Davis. Davis has fought the higher level of competition, and I believe that will shine through when the going gets tough in this fight. Give me the Dog at +135, and let’s cash with the Dog of the week.

The Bet: Brandon Davis ML +135

Assuncao vs. Henry Odds

Raphael Assuncao +260, Victor Henry -350

In the featured prelim of the night, Victor Henry — a newcomer to the UFC with nearly 30 professional fights — steps into the cage to fight UFC veteran Raphael Assuncao. Two fighters on opposite ends of their careers, Assuncao is currently on a four-fight losing streak and possibly facing being cut if he can’t find a win this weekend. Assuncao has been a professional since 2004 and has been part of the UFC since 2011. To say that he has fought the cream of the crop in the bantamweight division is an understatement. Yet, at 40 years old, his age seems to be catching up with him, and his durability appears to be fading as he’s been finished in three of his four recent losses. On the other hand, Victor Henry became a pro in 2010, and as of the beginning of this year, he beat Raoni Barcelos on short notice and quickly proved that he belonged in the deep bantamweight division. From a betting perspective, I will lean with the new and hungry prospect to find a finish by KO/TKO, keep impressing the brass, and send Assuncao into retirement.

The Bet: Victor Henry by KO/TKO +175/Henry vs. Assuncao FDGTD +105

Maximov vs. Malkoun Odds

Nick Maximov -130, Jacob Malkoun +105

Maximov faces Malkoun in what should be the best grappling matchup on the card. Both fighters stick to a similar game plan as they look to take the fight to the ground and dominate. Combined, these guys average 11 takedowns per 15 minutes and usually use their striking to set up their takedown entries. There isn’t much mystery in this bout unless Maximov improves his 1.23 significant strike average during his camp and decides to have a boxing match, which can happen when two grapplers of this caliber face off. Maximov has a three-inch reach advantage and sub-threat advantage when the fight inevitably hits the canvas. Malkoun does pursue takedowns relentlessly but doesn’t defend them well, as he averages a 0% takedown defense. It could be because he’s never been on the back foot and had people trying to take him down, and usually, his opponents are the ones defending the takedowns. I fully expect Malkoun to finally be the one on the back foot. His takedown defense will be tested from the sound of the bell, as the Nate Diaz product is looking to redeem himself after facing his first professional loss. In a clash between grapplers, give me the fighter who is a threat to finish the fight once it gets to the ground; Malkoun is a good grappler but lacks any ability to find a finish and will have a hard time controlling Maximov where he is at his best. From a betting perspective I will be siding with Maximov as I believe he is the better grappler and will get back into the win column this weekend. 

The Bets: Nick Maximov by points +125/Maximov ML -140

Taira vs. Vergara Odds

Tatsuro Taira -250, CJ Vergara +200

Another exciting fight from the prelims features UFC newcomer Tatsuro Taira in his sophomore debut against Contender Series alum CJ Vergara. An underdog in every one of his fights, Vergara has only lost one fight in his short UFC career. A loss to Ode Osbourne in his official debut in the UFC was an eye-opener for Vergara as he was introduced to the cream of the crop of the division and not only held his own but did very well and, at times, looked to even hurt Osbourne. Soon after his debut, he was slated against another Contender Series alum, Kleydson Rodrigues, and again as an underdog, Vergara handled his business and proved the doubters wrong. To keep the trend going, the UFC brass handed him another new prospect and another opportunity to shine as the underdog in this match-up. Tatsuro is a new young prospect out of Japan and fights with the type of technique and composure that would remind you of a long-time vet in the UFC. His grappling is high-level, and he carries real power in his strikes. Vergara has an 80% takedown defense, but it will be tested against Taira. If it gets to the mat, I believe Taira will be looking for a finish to solidify himself as the newest threat in the flyweight division. Tatsuro has proved that he can get through some adversity in his debut, and now it’s time to put a stamp on his arrival in the UFC. Give me Tatsuro to possibly find a finish by sub at +350 and for this fight to not get to the judges’ score card as I believe both fighters will be looking to make a statement.

The Bet: Vergara vs. Taira FDGTD +145/Taira by submission +350