UFC Vegas 46 DFS Picks

Welcome to my DFS breakdown for UFC Vegas 46: Chikadze vs. Kattar. The UFC had a wild 2021, and it was nice to unwind for the last few weeks without fights, but I can’t wait for the UFC to get their 2022 campaign underway this weekend.

We currently have just 10 fights scheduled for Saturday morning’s UFC Apex card, including the five-round headliner between two top-tier featherweights. This is a very unique slate due to its small size and some wonky pricing in the $7K range, which is something that I will touch on throughout this article. I’ll be in the FTNDaily Discord leading up to Saturday’s slate to discuss last-minute changes and additional general slate strategy.

If you’re interested in DFS and betting takes for every fight on this card, you can check out The Undisputed MMA Show with Jon Kelly and me.

In this weekly article, I will outline three fighters who present strong floors and ceilings for your DraftKings lineups. 

High tier: Brandon Royval, $8,800 

Royval enters his fight against Rogerio Bontorin this weekend as a decently sized betting favorite despite losing his last two fights inside of the octagon. Royval is a very exciting kill-or-be-killed type of fighter, meaning that he prioritizes finishing his opponents to such an extent that it can sometimes put him in danger. Royval is always moving forward and has thrown a ton of volume throughout the early stages of his UFC career, which we love for DFS. Royval’s best fantasy asset is his finishing ability, though, with 11 of his 12 wins coming inside the distance. Bontorin is a tough test at 125 pounds but has historically struggled with his cardio. I expect Royval to capitalize on Bontorin’s flaws and get a finish in this spot. 

Mid-tier: Court McGee, $8,300

This week is a slate where we will have a lot of concentrated ownership due to some blatant mispricing that I’ll touch on in the next portion of this article. Because of that concentrated ownership, there will be a lot of chalky fighters both at the very top and very bottom of the pricing range. That leaves us with midrange fighters that are likely to go under-rostered on this slate. While there are no slam dunk plays in this pricing range, one play I do like is McGee. He’s just turned 37 and has dropped five of his last seven fights, but McGee has solid skills anywhere that a fight goes and his opponent Ramiz Brahimaj is not impressive and has extremely poor cardio. McGee has the ability to land multiple takedowns here at deflated ownership. 

Low tier: Brian Kelleher, $7,500, and TJ Brown, $7,100 

Often, when we look at the lower-priced fighters on DraftKings, we’re trying to make decisions about big underdogs and trying to take long-shots on fighters who are unlikely to win their fights but carry some upside. This week is completely different, as both Brian Kelleher and TJ Brown are large favorites in their respective fights but are priced at $7.5K and $7.1K, respectively, due to DFS pricing having been released with these two scheduled to face off against different opponents before getting short-notice replacements. Both Kelleher and Brown should be among the most heavily rostered fighters on the slate Saturday, which is never great, but with just 10 fights, these two men don’t just project as the best value plays on the slate, but they actually project as two of the stronger raw point projection plays on the slate. This is a situation where I’d be more inclined to get overweight to the field if MME-ing GPPs this weekend as opposed to fading either man. However, if you’re playing both of these guys in the same lineup, it’s important that you surround them with lower-used fighters and get a little different from the field by leaving salary on the table or finding leverage elsewhere.