UFC 273 Betting Breakdown

Welcome to my betting breakdown for UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. Korean Zombie. After a week off last Saturday, the UFC is back on the road in Jacksonville this weekend for a massive PPV event. 

We have a 13-fight card on tap for Saturday night. In the main event, Alexander Volkanovski will look to continue his run of dominance at 145 pounds as he goes for his 11th straight UFC win against the always dangerous Korean Zombie. In the co-main event, Aljamain Sterling and Petr Yan will once again lock horns in a rematch of their fight that took place 13 months ago. Although I think this weekend will be a fun card from an entertainment perspective, there are a bunch of massive favorites in terms of the betting odds and most prices feel fairly accurate to me. Despite there being 13 fights to choose from this week, I’ve pulled the trigger on just one bet so far.

I’ll be writing this column weekly, with extended breakdowns for up to three of my best bets. I will be in the FTNBets Discord for about two hours before the early preliminaries this weekend to answer any questions that readers might have. We’d love to continue building the community through Discord. 

Mackenzie Dern vs. Tecia Torres Odds

Dern -115, Torres -105, DraftKings Sportsbook

Dern is coming off a main event loss to Marina Rodriguez in a “fight of the night” effort back in October. Prior to that loss, the Brazilian had put together four consecutive wins including three submissions. Stylistically, Dern is a BJJ ace who easily has the best pure Jiu-Jitsu in women’s MMA right now. However, the other elements of her MMA game are well behind the grappling, as Dern has improved her striking over the last few years but is still a below-average striker and her wrestling isn’t great either, landing well below one takedown per 15 minutes. While Dern is certainly still improving, it’s OK to classify her as a submission specialist for now, and that may be enough to be solidly in the top five of this division. 

Between February 2018 and August 2019, Torres dropped four consecutive fights and seemed as though she was potentially on her way out of the title picture at 115 pounds, but she has since bounced back with three consecutive wins and now finds herself in a fight with massive title implications at strawweight. Torres has been fighting in the UFC since 2014 and fought pretty much everybody in her weight class, with all her losses except one (Marina Rodriguez) coming against fighters that have held UFC gold (Rose Namjunas, Jessica Andrade, Joanna Jedrzejczyk, Zhang Weili). Physically, Torres truly does seem to be in the best shape of her career and carries a strong frame for the weight class while also being an above-average striker and wrestler. 

While I think it’s clear that Tecia Torres is clearly the more well-rounded fighter in this matchup, it’s important to note that Dern carries the rare skillset in Women’s MMA of being able to turn one mistake from her opponent into a fight-ending sequence. Although Dern has struggled with her offensive wrestling and Torres is a solid defensive wrestler, both of these women find themselves on the ground at some point in the vast majority of their fights, and I’m not sure that Torres has ever been in the positions that Dern is likely to test her in once the fight goes to the floor. On the flip side, while Torres certainly has a striking advantage in this matchup, I’m not sure she possesses any skills or weapons that Dern has not seen before. I think this fight will hit the ground at some point and Dern will find a tap shortly thereafter. 

Bet: Mackenzie Dern +100 1x until +100 (Placed March 29)