Whitestone’s Waiver Watch: NFBC Main Event (7/17)

Welcome to my weekly NFBC Main Event recap article. Each week, I’ll dig into the top free agents added in this premier fantasy baseball contest, letting you know who was added in the most leagues, how much money was spent and more. In addition, we’ll revisit the top pickups from three weeks ago and even scan the Main Event overall standings to see who’s at the top. 

MLB Counter = 57.7% of the season complete

For many Main Event owners, it’s a good time to assess the situation. Many fantasy managers may be unsure about what to do in differing circumstances, so as a public service I have provided the easy-to-follow chart below. This should prove enormously helpful…Please remember, it’s not a code..

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Updated 80% Targets

I am alternating the overall MLB pitching and hitting stats with the 80% Main Event target update in this section moving forward – since there is less movement in the numbers now. This week, we will check in on those 80% levels for the year to date in the NFBC Main Event.

So these are the updated 80% targets – you can check in on your Main Event squads (and probably most of your 15-team leagues) to see if you are ahead or behind these paces. The numbers are all pretty stable from a couple of weeks ago. I still can’t believe we’re aiming at a steals total of 187 (it’s a tiny bit lower from 189 two weeks ago) and batting average has fallen just a bit from .2608 to .2603. Strikeouts, however, have jumped up to a projected end-of-year total of 1,454 – they were 1,439 a couple of weeks back – but the rest looks in line. And if you’re doing well in all these categories, just rely on the advice from Captain Jack Sparrow…

Most Common FAAB Pickups in the Main Event: Gel off the Ship

The 10 widest acquisitions are in the chart below and feature another Baltimore call-up as the top acquisition. Zack Geloff, second baseman for Oakland, was added in all 53 leagues and was one of only two top-10 players to get over $100 as the highest winning bid – the other was Tyler Soderstrom of, yes, Oakland. After those two, it was a mix of players with high bids of $12-60, with two possible closer candidates, Kyle Finnegan and Erik Swanson. However, the bidding is a lot more spread out, as fantasy managers try to fit acquisitions into their needs to help the most important categories for their individual fantasy teams.

The Century Club

In the 17th FAAB run (see below), there was just one $200+ successful bid – for Aroldis Chapman – and only six winning bids over $100 (three of these were for Gelof). As you can see below, we’ve had 531 total winning bids over $200 (which may be about the final total) and 1,301 total $100+ winning bids in the first 17 weeks of FAAB. It’s interesting to think that of the 795 Main Event owners, two-thirds (66.7%) on average have had one $200-plus winning bid, and each owner on average has had 1-2 (1.64 to be exact) $100-199 winning bids. Some owners have gone more “stars and scrubs” and have more than one $200 player, while others haven’t gone above $200 at all and are content with $100 and below.

The Wow Bid of the Week

So, who attracted the highest single bid of the week? The highest winning bid was for Aroldis Chapman (available in one league) – with the winning bid of $316, easily beating the $43 runner-up amount. This was the highest WOW bid since Elly De La Cruz on 6/11.

• 3/26: Darick Hall $221
• 4/2: Dany Jiménez $363
• 4/9 Oscar Colás $372
• 4/16 Taj Bradley $557
• 4/23 José Alvarado $399
• 4/30 Tanner Bibee $504
• 5/7 Bryce Miller $468
• 5/14 Eury Pérez $415
• 5/21 Bobby Miller $329
• 5/28 Bobby Miller $412
• 6/4 Royce Lewis $429
• 6/11 Elly De La Cruz $650
• 6/18 Emmet Sheehan $178
• 6/25 Gavin Williams $228 (2)
• 7/2 Jordan Westburg $177
• 7/9 Colton Cowser $225
• 7/16 Aroldis Chapman $316

FAAB Summary

In the first 17 FAAB weeks, Main Event owners have had 25,618 winning bids (so each Main Event team has won 32.2 bids on average YTD – roughly two per week). But notably, the activity level has dropped the past three weeks, with only 1,313, 1,386 and now just 1,023 winning bids (before it was steadily above 1,500). In terms of spending, owners have now parted with, on average, $855 of their $1,000 allocation. Comparing that to the last two years at the 17-week mark, that’s more than the $797 spent in 2022 and the $780 spent two years ago. You can see in the chart below (the average amount spent per team column) that there was a huge drop in weekly spending four weeks ago – from $65 spent per team to $28, and after holding steady at that $28 level, it’s now down to $11.75. And with 27 FAAB periods and $855 spent in 17 weeks, owners who have an average amount left don’t have much more than that –  $14.50 per week for all their winning bids over the final 10 weeks of the campaign.

The Colosseum

Each week during the season, I take a look at the four widest Main Event pickups from three weeks ago and evaluate whether it was a good addition based on the early stats (thumbs up), a bad idea (thumbs down) or simply a push. In the chart below, you can see the results from the 14th FAAB period. Gavin Williams of the Guardians leads us off and has provided one win with a solid ERA and WHIP. He gets a THUMBS UP from the emperor. Henry Davis of the Pirates joins him in the winner’s circle, as he has hit a lusty .293 with a homer, two steals and nice counting stats since his pickup date. Joey Votto is a little closer to the line because of his poor batting average, but the power (4 homers) and good RBI total convinced the emperor to spare him and usher him in with the other winners. Alek Thomas, though, is another step down. He has batted .250 with two homers but isn’t really getting the playing time or counting stats as hoped. Still, there’s some good appeal here, and he could build on this more average beginning. He is awarded a PUSH for his efforts..

This now gives us 26 thumbs up for the season thus far (46%), 20 down (36%) and 10 pushes (18%). That’s better than 2022, which registered a 39% thumbs up on these weekly pickups, and well ahead of 2021 (24%). 

Overall Leaderboard: Erik the Red

Erik Thorvaldsson, known as Erik the Red, was a Norse explorer, described in medieval and Icelandic saga sources as having founded the first European settlement in Greenland. He most likely earned the epithet “the Red” due to the color of his hair and beard. Well, apparently, Eric Christenson has adopted the general approach and mannerisms of Erik the Red and is planning on pillaging his way to the Main Event title this year. According to Eric, “I don’t see any reason to not be in first place the rest of the way.”

Well, it has been a four-week run for Eric, but I must point out that his lead is the smallest (21.5 points) since he took over first place, and there are a lot of good players behind him. But as Eric points out, “How many of them have statues in Greenland?”

In the overall top 30 standing below, we find Brandon King still in second place overall, and Michael Mager has now edged back in front of Steve Maier for 3rd. Superstar fantasy manager Clark Olson remains in 5th. Bob Catsiroumpas, who made a determined charge for the overall Main Event title in 2022, is in 6th and Michael Kurland, who led five weeks ago, is still in 7th place. Rey Diaz is 8th, Scott Waggener is 9th and Jason Anthony was the big mover from 19th to 10th in one week! 

It’s also worth mentioning that Michael Mager also has the 11th place overall team (wow), and Jeff Tudor, who led on May 14, is in 12th. The great John Pausma is now 15th, and then there are two of my favorite duos, the opera singers Robert Mirshak and Ian Kahn in 21st and Brian Slack and Nickolaus Sackett in 25th (known as Slack and Sack).

Other fantasy managers to watch out for include David Miller in 13th; Dave Smith in 14th; and Gregg Martin, who is 20th and 26th overall. Excellent job Gregg! 

There are a lot of other strong contenders in the top 30 list. Just take a look at the standings below, and with 42% of the season left, anything can most certainly happen.

I like to keep tabs on our recent Overall Champions, because they have proven their mettle over long, difficult campaigns and therefore must be threats to do so again.

Philippe Dussault: Philippe is 74th overall and is really in good shape, after having been as far back as 275th place (out of 795 total). He’s still got a hill to climb to get in serious contention for the overall title, but if anyone can do it, it’s the robot…

Robert Cramutola: Bob has now dropped to 182nd  from 169th last week. Bob says he is reconsidering his planned press conference before the trade deadline to discuss options, but he didn’t say what sort of options he’d be talking about.

League of Legends

John Pausma is still cashing in the most Main Event leagues of any player, but he is not in a top three position in all five. He is down to four. Still, this is impressive, John. Danny Bronski continues to lead two Main Event leagues and is second in yet another, while Clark Olson has a first, a second and a third place in the name of equal opportunity. Ned Donohue has one second and two thirds, the same as the Slack/Sack tag team and Jason Santeiu. Those seven fantasy players have five first-place positions; seven second-place and 10 third-place positions. Excellent job gentlemen!

Seventeen other players are in two cashing spots, with Michael Mager and Gregg Martin each winning two leagues. In fact, these 24 Main Event fantasy owners below have a combined 18 first-place positions (34%) and 56 cashing spots (35% of the 159 total available). There’s a long way to go, of course, but right now the story of the season in the Main Event is Pausma, Bronski, Olson, Heberlig, Donohue and Slack/Sackett. But remember who discovered Greenland, fellows! But the question is, did Erik the Red do Greenland with just $145 average FAAB remaining? It’s Greenland on a budget, perhaps!

Good luck during Week 18!