Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Today is an interesting day for the local Tipico Sportsbook betting market in and around the New Jersey area. Interesting is probably not the right word actually. I am not really sure what the right word is, to be honest. This is probably because I am a lifelong Yankees fan who is being left speechless by the Bronx Bombers this year. Today, they take on the Philadelphia Phillies, who could not be catching the ailing Yankees at a better time. As stated, this one could get interesting.
The Yankees are a home dog today on Tipico Sportsbook, paying +105 on the moneyline. Normally I would be insulted by this as a Yankees fan, but I do not think it’s a bad number today. The Yankees are currently dealing with a slew of injuries and COVID situations. Luke Voit and Miguel Andújar are on the DL with injuries. After the break, Aaron Judge, Gio Urshela and Kyle Higashioka were held out due to COVID protocols. Tim Locastro is also on the injury list. That’s six position players who play regularly or are filling in for the starter who plays regularly that the Yankees will be without today. The Yankees did look good taking two of three from the AL East-leading Red Sox over the weekend, so do not completely write them off here against the Phillies.
For Philadelphia, they have a pitcher coming back off COVID tracing too. Aaron Nola never tested positive but did have to miss a start due to one of his teammates testing positive that he was in close contact with. Nola is one of the best pitchers the Phillies have, but his numbers this year do not show it on the surface. His ERA is over 4, but that does not tell the whole story. His xFIP this year is 3.37, which is the same as his career average. His strikeouts are up above 11 per 9, when he started the season below 10 K per 9 for his career. What has killed Nola this year is a combination of his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) and his elevated HR per 9 IP rate. Nola has a .296 BABIP for his career, but this year that number is .331. His career HR per 9 is 1.02, but this year it is 1.33 per 9. His GB rate is down and FB rate is up this year, which may account for the change in home run rate. The BABIP problem is one I expect to correct back to his baseline, which is also what his ERA should do given that his xFIP is right in line with where it always has been.
One way that makes some sense to get money down on this game is by playing the under. Nola and German are both guys who have track records of being above average pitchers, even if they have not done as well this season. Speaking of this season, the Phillies and Yankees offenses are both below average against right-handed pitching this year. The Yankees are 16th with just a 94 wRC+. The Phillies are even worse at 19th with just an 89 wRC+ score. Bad offense against decent pitching is not the recipe for tons of runs to be scored today. This is why the under is the most attractive bet and how I will be attacking this game.
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