The One Hitter: MLB game-by-game betting breakdown (9/21)

Each day, we are going to try and give you a quick preview of today’s main slate and any interesting betting angles that we spot. Take a look.

All betting lines and information are from the FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats are from the last 30 days via FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

Texas Rangers at New York Yankees betting breakdown

Rangers (+220), Yankees (-270)
Total: 8.0 runs
Dane Dunning (R) vs. Jordan Montgomery (L)

Three things to know

• Jordan Montgomery was brilliant against the Orioles last time out — can he give them another shot in the arm?
• The Yankees have really been struggling, strangely — they own a .315 wOBA and 24.3% strikeout rate.
• The Rangers offense is not very dynamic — their .134 ISO and .306 wOBA is among the league’s worst.

Best bets: This moneyline is so heavily skewed toward the Yanks. Take them here.

Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays betting breakdown

Jays (-104), Rays (-112)
Total: 8.5 runs
Alek Manoah (R) vs. Drew Rasmussen (R)

Three things to know

• Tampa has been slamming at the plate, rocking a .327 wOBA and .194 ISO.
• The Jays are still crushing the baseball, logging a .359 wOBA in the same time frame.
• Can opener Drew Rasmussen keep things alive for the Rays?

Best bets: The over hit again yesterday with these two massive offenses — can they slam it again? I think so.

New York Mets at Boston Red Sox betting breakdown

Mets (-104), Red Sox (-112)
Total: 9.5 runs
Marcus Stroman (R) vs. Eduardo Rodríguez (L)

Three things to know

• Can these top-10 offenses remain hot at the dish?
• The Mets rank ninth in team wOBA (.331) with a .181 ISO in the L30 days.
• Boston — even better. They are slamming the ball for a .353 wOBA and .210 ISO in the same time frame.

Best bets: This line feels too high with two excellent hurlers on the mound. Bet the UNDER.

St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers betting breakdown

Cardinals (+188), Brewers (-225)
Total: 8.0 runs
Jake Woodford (R) vs. Brandon Woodruff (R)

Three things to know

• The Cardinals have been inside the top-10 in wOBA and ISO.
• The Brewers have struggled at a .321 woBA and .154 ISO in the last 30 days.
• Can the white-hot Cardinals (L10: 9-1) keep up this surge?

Best bets: After winning their 11th out of their last 12 Monday, I like the Cardinals moneyline here.

Minnesota Twins at Chicago Cubs betting breakdown

Twins (+106), Cubs (-124)
Total: 8.0 runs
Griffin Jax (R) vs. Alec Mills (R)

Three things to know

• Will the Cubs stop whiffing? In the last 30 days, they’ve posted a 28.0% strikeout rate.
• For the North Siders, maybe the approach works? They’ve logged a .332 wOBA.
• The Twins need help at the plate — they’ve posted a .299 wOBA in the same time frame.

Best bets: I don’t particularly love either side, but these pitchers aren’t great — take the OVER.

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Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies betting breakdown

Dodgers (-210), Rockies (+194)
Total: 11.0 runs
Julio Urías (L) vs. Antonio Senzatela (R)

Three things to know

• Antonio Senzatela has allowed a .415 slugging percentage to opposing lefties.
• Can the Dodgers heat up? L30 days: .296 wOBA, .172 ISO.
• The Rockies could also use some home magic with only a .310 wOBA.

Best bets: I’m flummoxed where to go here — both offenses have struggled, but Coors is Coors. Take a small taste on the UNDER.

Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels betting breakdown

Astros (-210), Angels (+174)
Total: 9.0 runs
José Urquidy (R) vs. Packy Naughton (L)

Three things to know

• The Angels have been horrendous at the plate, logging a .136 ISO and .285 wOBA.
• Houston is cookin’ at the plate, logging a .344 wOBA and 18.8% strikeout rate in the last 30 days.
• Can Packy Naughton control the walks? He’s got a 10%-plus walk rate.

Best bets: With a bad Angels offense and a struggling Angels arm, plan on them in a F3/F5 bet.

Atlanta Braves at Arizona Diamondbacks betting breakdown

Braves (-174), Diamondbacks (+146)
Total: 9.5 runs
Jesse Chavez (R) vs. Luke Weaver (R)

Three things to know

• The Braves probably were expected to drop off offensively, but in the L30: .317 wOBA, .202 ISO.
• Arizona is one of the worst offenses in the league, ranking in the bottom five in strikeout rate, wOBA, and ISO.
• How will Luke Weaver fare as he works his way back into pitching shape?

Best bets: This screams same-game parlay over at FanDuel — even with an opener like Chavez, bet on Atlanta.

Seattle Mariners at Oakland Athletics betting breakdown

Mariners (+120), Athletics (-142)
Total: 8.5 runs
Marco Gonzales (L) vs. Paul Blackburn (R)

Three things to know

• The Mariners showed some life this weekend — can they keep it up?
• Seattle’s .306 wOBA over the last 30 days has been a slight improvement, but it’s not a great mark.
• The Athletics and their .316 wOBA are in the middle of the pack. Can they surge to the top?

Best bets: The A’s choked big time last night in this spot — can they figure it out? I am betting yes, so take them on the ML.

(Get all my MLB betting picks here)

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