The One Hitter: MLB game-by-game betting breakdown (9/2)

Each day, we are going to try and give you a quick preview of today’s main slate and any interesting betting angles that we spot. Take a look.

All betting lines and information are from the FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats are from the last 30 days via FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

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Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays betting breakdown

Red Sox (+144), Rays (-172)
Total: 7.5 runs
Eduardo Rodríguez (L) vs. Shane McClanahan (L)

Three things to know

• The Rays have been spicy but whiff a whole lot – to the tune of a 25.6% mark.
• Boston has been surging recently – their .343 wOBA and .197 ISO is at the top of the league.
• The Rays have been very bad against lefties this year – can they improve here?

Best bets: The Sox gotta take this one – I like the road underdog here.

Miami Marlins at New York Mets betting breakdown

Marlins (+194), Mets (-235)
Total: 7.5 runs
Zack Thompson (R) vs. Carlos Carrasco (R)

Three things to know

• These are two bad offensive teams — can they pick it up?
• The Marlins have struggled at the dish all year. They rank at the bottom of the league in terms of wOBA (.296), ISO (.140) and 26.0% strikeout rate.
• The Mets are just as bad, logging a .303 wOBA and .146 ISO.

Best bets: There’s not a ton of value on either side here, but the UNDER seems pretty likely.

Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs betting breakdown

Pirates (+118), Cubs (-138)
Total: 8.0 runs
Mitch Keller (R) vs. Keegan Thompson (R)

Three things to know

• The Cubs have a weird profile in the last month — they rank 20th in team wOBA with a whopping 30.8% whiff rate.
• The Pirates are similarly bad, logging a league-worst .291 wOBA and .126 ISO.
• Another bullpen day for the Cubs – can they do it again?

Best bets: Boring bet, but the UNDER. These two teams are so bad.

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Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals betting breakdown

Guardians (-112), Royals (-104)
Total: 8.5 runs
Triston McKenzie (R) vs. Mike Minor (L)

Three things to know

• The Guardians have been going beast mode at the dish — they clock in sixth in wOBA with a .336 mark.
• The Guardians got by with great pitching Wednesday – can they do it again?
• KC needs to pick it up — over the last month, they are sixth worst in the league in wOBA (.296).

Best bets: I love the road Guardians here — McKenzie has been outstanding lately and the offense has been fire.

Atlanta Braves at Colorado Rockies betting breakdown

Braves (-162), Rockies (+136)
Total: 12.5 runs
Touki Toussaint (R) vs. Chi Chi González (R)

Three things to know

• The Rockies have been outstanding in the last month, ranking top-five in nearly every statistical category.
• The Braves are neck and neck with the Dodgers, logging a .187 ISO and .324 wOBA over the same time frame.
• Chi Chi González is arguably the worst pitcher in baseball – he’s logged a 5.30 FIP with an egregious 13.8% whiff rate.

Best bets: The OVER. I think this is an offensive bloodbath.

(Get all my MLB betting picks here)

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