The One Hitter: MLB game-by-game betting breakdown (9/17)

Each day, we are going to try and give you a quick preview of today’s main slate and any interesting betting angles that we spot. Take a look.

All betting lines and information are from the FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats are from the last 30 days via FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationals betting breakdown

Rockies (-118), Nationals (+100)
Total: 9.0 runs
Germán Márquez (R) vs. Josiah Gray (R)

Three things to know

• The Rockies have been solid offensively, logging a .328 wOBA and .211 ISO.
• The Nats have been surprisingly adept at the plate, posting a .340 wOBA and 11.0% walk rate.
• Germán Márquez has been outstanding this year — can he put up another great start?

Best bets: The Nats have been really good at the plate lately, but I like the Rockies in a F3/F5 bet.

Cleveland Guardians at New York Yankees betting breakdown

Guardians (+166), Yankees (-198)
Total: 9.0 runs
Zach Plesac (R) vs. Corey Kluber (R)

Three things to know

• Which pitcher — one who has struggled due to injury (Kluber), the other to poor performance (Plesac) — shows up here?
• The Yankees have really been struggling, strangely — they own a .321 wOBA and 25.9% strikeout rate.
• The Guardians have showed some fight lately, logging a .180 ISO and .320 wOBA.

Best bets: The Yankees are fighting for their playoff lives — with that motivation, I like them in a F3/F5 bet.

Minnesota Twins at Toronto Blue Jays betting breakdown

Twins (+188), Jays (-225)
Total: 9.0 runs
Michael Pineda (R) vs. Hyun Jin Ryu (L)

Three things to know

• The Twins have stunk at the plate — in the last month, they rank in the bottom five in nearly every category.
• The Jays are still crushing the baseball, logging a .361 wOBA in the same time frame.
• Has anyone had a better, more underrated season than Ryu?

Best bets: This screams same-game parlay for the Jays. Pound all the bets.

Detroit Tigers at Tampa Bay Rays betting breakdown

Tigers (+190), Rays (-230)
Total: 8.5 runs
Casey Mize (R) vs. Luis Patiño (R)

Three things to know

• Tampa has been slamming at the plate, rocking a .328 wOBA and .198 ISO.
• The Tigers? They have been far worse, logging a .307 wOBA and 24.4% strikeout rate.
• Which stud rookie hurler can come out on top?

Best bets: The Rays just keep on rolling. Peek at them for a F3/F5 bet.

Pittsburgh Pirates at Miami Marlins betting breakdown

Pirates (+142), Marlins (-168)
Total: 8.0 runs
Wil Crowe (R) vs. Elieser Hernandez (R)

Three things to know

• Can either of these moribund offensive attacks awaken?
• The Marlins stink — they are second worst in ISO and team wOBA in the last 30 days.
• In the same time period, the Buccos are slightly better (eighth worst and third worst, respectively).

Best bets: The UNDER. These two teams couldn’t hit their way through a wet paper towel.

Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets betting breakdown

Phillies (-132), Mets (+112)
Total: 7.5 runs
Zack Wheeler (R) vs. Taijuan Walker (R)

Three things to know

• The Phillies have been warming lately, logging a .331 wOBA and .198 ISO.
• Zack Wheeler has a sub-1.00 WHIP and ERA in his last two starts.
• Over the same time frame, the Mets have logged a .325 wOBA and .177 ISO.

Best bets: This line seems off — Wheeler could dominate. Take the Phillies in a F3/F5 bet.

Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds betting breakdown

Dodgers (-172), Reds (+144)
Total: 8.5 runs
Walker Buehler (R) vs. Luis Castillo (R)

Three things to know

• The Dodgers have been bad at the dish — can they wake up?
• Over the last 30, the Dodgers posted a .300 wOBA and .182 ISO.
• The Reds have cooled considerably (L30: .291 wOBA, .170 ISO).

Best bets: If it wasn’t Buehler, I’d be tempted to take the Reds but alas, focus on them tonight.

Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox betting breakdown

Orioles (+280), Red Sox (-350)
Total: 10.0 runs
Keegan Akin (L) vs. Chris Sale (L)

Three things to know

• The Orioles have ugly marks of only a .320 wOBA.
• Camden Yards ranks as a T-5 park factor and home run factor.
• The Red Sox have been smashing at the plate, logging a .341 wOBA and .206 ISO.

Best bets: Peep a Chris Sale strikeout prop and a Xander Bogaerts homer prop.

Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astros betting breakdown

Diamondbacks (+198), Astros (-240)
Total: 9.5 runs
Madison Bumgarner (L) vs. Brandon Bielak (R)

Three things to know

• The Diamondbacks have been awful at the plate, recording a .151 ISO and .297 wOBA.
• Houston is cookin’ at the plate, logging a .343 wOBA and 18.8% strikeout rate in the last 30 days.
• Can Brandon Bielak find his former top prospect form?

Best bets: I don’t know what to expect from Bumgarner here — the Astros are cooking, so plan on them in a F3/F5 bet.

Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers betting breakdown

Cubs (+198), Brewers (-240)
Total: 8.5 runs
Zach Davies (R) vs. Adrian Houser (R)

Three things to know

• Can the Cubbies curb the whiffs? Over the last 30 days, they’ve struck out at a 27.7% clip.
• The Brewers have struggled at a .302 woBA and .152 ISO in the last 30 days.
• Zach Davies has allowed 1.57 HR/9 this season.

Best bets: I like the juice on the Cubs here — take them in a F3/F5 bet.

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San Diego Padres at St. Louis Cardinals betting breakdown

Padres (+116), Cards (-136)
Total: 9.0 runs
Vince Velasquez (R) vs. Miles Mikolas (R)

Three things to know

• Recently released (by Philadelphia) Vince Velasquez pitches here for San Diego — what is left in the tank?
• The Padres have to wake up at the plate — their .277 wOBA is the league’s worst number.
• The Cards have been better, recording a .327 wOBA and .184 ISO over the last month.

Best bets: Fading San Diego has been very profitable for us. Keep doing it.

Atlanta Braves at San Francisco Giants betting breakdown

Braves (+150), Giants (-178)
Total: 7.5 runs
Ian Anderson (R) vs. Logan Webb (R)

Three things to know

• The Braves probably were expected to drop off offensively, but in the L30: .321 wOBA, .205 ISO.
• The Giants have relied on an excellent offense, recording a .335 wOBA and .204 ISO.
• Can Logan Webb support this dominant form yet again (2.80 ERA, 1.11 WHIP).

Best bets: This one is tough. The Giants are favored due to Webb’s excellence, so I give them a slight lean here.

(Get all my MLB betting picks here)

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