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The One Hitter: MLB game-by-game betting breakdown (8/17)

MLB Bets



Matt Kupferle

Contributor's Page

Each day, we are going to try and give you a quick preview of today’s main slate and any interesting betting angles that we spot. Take a look.

All betting lines and information are from the FanDuel Sportsbook

Toronto Blue Jays at Washington Nationals betting breakdown

Blue Jays (-220), Nationals (+184)
Total: 9.0 runs
Alek Manoah (R) vs. Erick Fedde (R)

Three things to know

  • The league’s best offense has not cooled off – the Blue Jays still lead the league in nearly all major categories.
  • The Jays .343 wOBA and .207 ISO in the last month has been very strong.
  • The Nationals have stayed strong at the plate in the last 30 days (.332 wOBA), but without much pop (.161).

Best bets: With Manoah dealing and the Jays cooking, these is a same game smash.

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Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins betting breakdown

Braves (-126), Marlins (+108)
Total: 7.5 runs
Huascar Ynoa (R) vs. Sandy Alcantara (R)

Three things to know

  • Huascar Ynoa is slated to be activated for the start – and he was cooking with a 3.02 ERA and 1.05 WHIP before the injury.
  • The Braves are better at the plate – they’ve got a .333 wOBA in the last month.
  • The Marlins stink – they have a .312 wOBA and a 24.9% whiff rate.

Best bets: I think the Braves are undervalued here – take them for a F3/F5 bet.

Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds betting breakdown

Cubs (+144), Reds (-172)
Total: 9.5 runs
Kyle Hendricks (R) vs. Vladimir Gutierrez (R)

Three things to know

  • The Reds are as hot as an August Midwest summer, scorching the ball to a .382 wOBA and .251 ISO in the last week.
  • Vladimir Gutierrez could make for a spicy play in DFS or a strikeout prop – the Cubs have whiffed a whopping 26.5% of the time in the last month.
  • Kyle Hendricks has been solid this season with 13 wins but bombed last time out – can he right the ship?

Best bets: It’s hot and humid in the Midwest — focus on some home run props in Cincinnati.

Los Angeles Angels at Detroit Tigers betting breakdown

Angels (+118), Tigers(-138)
Total: 9.0 runs
Dylan Bundy (R) vs. Casey Mize (R)

Three things to know

  • The Angels have really been struggling at the plate – their .285 WOBA and .130 ISO has been awful.
  • What happened to Dylan Bundy? It’s homers, that’s what. He’s allowed over 2.00 HR/9 this year.
  • Detroit has vascillated between good and bad at the plate – and they are improving right now, logging a .185 ISO and .328 wOBA.

Best bets: Let’s poke around on the OVER and some Detroit Tigers props. Bundy has stunk so badly.

Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays betting breakdown

Orioles (+194), Rays (-235)
Total: 8.0 runs
John Means (L) vs. Drew Rasmussen (R)

Three things to know

  • Drew Rasmussen is the latest opener for the Rays – how long will he go here?
  • John Means has never been the same since the injury stint, and his 5.00 ERA over the last two weeks is ugly.
  • Can the Rays stay hot — they are still smashing at the dish with a .364 wOBA over the last 30 days.

Best bets: Normally, we target K props with a lefty on the mound against the Rays but Means stinks. Pound the Rays.

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Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals betting breakdown

Brewers (-158), Cardinals (+134)
Total: 7.0 runs
Corbin Burnes (R) vs. Adam Wainwright (R)

Three things to know

  • This iteration of Busch Stadium has been open since 2004, and Adam Wainwright has a sub-3.00 ERA there. Wow.
  • Corbin Burnes is unreal. Is he the No. 1 fantasy SP next season? He’s whiffed 172 in 121 innings.
  • The Cardinals have a 23.4% strikeout rate and a .180 ISO in the last month.

Best bets: The UNDER. Waino is brilliant at home, and the Cards stink offensively.

Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers betting breakdown

Mariners (-158), Rangers (+134)
Total: 8.5 runs
Tyler Anderson (L) vs. Spencer Howard (R)

Three things to know

  • What happened to the Rangers offensively? Their .244 wOBA in the last month is awful.
  • A .310 wOBA (Mariners) isn’t anything crazy, but it’s a big improvement over their last stretch.
  • Don’t expect a ton of homers here – the .158 ISO mark for the Mariners and .128 ISO mark for the Rangers is pathetic.

Best bets: I guess this is where we bet a F3/F5 on the Mariners. This is a very bad baseball game.

Oakland Athletics at Chicago White Sox betting breakdown

Athletics (-108), White Sox (-108)
Total: 9.0 runs
Chris Bassitt (R) vs. Rodrigo Lopez  (R)

Three things to know

  • The White Sox are straight fire at the dish – their .203 ISO in the last 30 days is fifth best in baseball.
  • The A’s aren’t exactly crushing the ball (.157 ISO), but they do have a solid .327 wOBA.
  • Chris Bassitt is so underrated – he’s posted a 3.06 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 150 innings pitched.

Best bets: This game is a toss-up due to two great teams, but bet on the pitching – Bassitt has been a beast.

Houston Astros at Kansas City Royals betting breakdown

Astros (-198), Royals (+166)
Total: 9.5 runs
Framber Valdez (L) vs. Daniel Lynch (L)

Three things to know

  • Framber Valdez has been pretty solid this season – he’s striking out nearly a batter per inning with a 3.09 ERA on the season.
  • Kansas City doesn’t whiff a ton (21.9%), but their .295 WOBA in the last month has stunk.
  • The Astros have heated back up at the dish – their .327 wOBA in the last month has them at 11th in the league.

Best bets: We went with the underdog Royals Monday, but I don’t see it twice – take the Astros here.

San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies betting breakdown

Padres (-110), Rockies (-106)
Total: 12.0 runs
Nabil Crismatt (R) vs. Germán Márquez (R)

Three things to know

  • The Padres are sinking, and fast. They are now 10.0 games out of the division, but right fielder (yes, that’s right) Fernando Tatis Jr. is back.
  • The Rockies have quietly been really good at the dish – in the last month, they sport a .343 wOBA.
  • This is easily the top mark on the board with an O/U of 12.0 runs.

Best bets: The Padres are free falling – take the Rockies here.

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New York Mets at San Francisco Giants betting breakdown

Mets (+134), Giants (-158)
Total: 8.0 runs
Marcus Stroman (R) vs. Logan Webb (R)

Three things to know

  • Numbers can get dicey sometimes – the Giants rank 12th in team WOBA in the last month, but 28th in the last week.
  • This Mets drop off has been FAST – they are now in third place of the NL East.
  • Logan Webb has been an unsung hero – in the last month, he’s logged 29 innings with a 1.86 ERA and 0.93 WHIP.

Best bets: Take the Giants in a F3/F5 bet. The Mets are falling quickly.

Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Dodgers betting breakdown

Pirates (+265), Dodgers (-330)
Total: 9.0 runs
Wil Crowe (R) vs. David Price (L)

Three things to know

  • The Pirates have been awful at the plate – they have a .280 WOBA and a .120 ISO in the last month.
  • The Dodgers keep rolling – they’ve posted a .186 ISO and .326 wOBA mark over that same time frame.
  • Wil Crowe has to keep the baseball in the yard – over 2 homers per nine is too many.

Best bets: Don’t over think this – a Dodgers bet is the obvious.

(Get all my MLB betting picks here)

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