The One Hitter: MLB game-by-game betting breakdown (8/16)

Each day, we are going to try and give you a quick preview of today’s main slate and any interesting betting angles that we spot. Take a look.

All betting lines and information are from the FanDuel Sportsbook.

Angels (+235), Yankees (-290)
Total: 9.0 runs
José Suarez (L) vs. Gerrit Cole (R)

Over the last month, the Yankees rank in the bottom 11 of the league in wOBA.
The Angels are in the same boat – their .285 wOBA and .130 ISO have been awful.
Gerrit Cole returns from the COVID-IL list. What will he have in his back pocket?

Best bets: I am always a bit nervous coming off the IL with arms, and I can’t find much information on Cole. This game is probably a stay away.

Cubs (+180), Reds (-215)
Total: 9.5 runs
Justin Steele (L) vs. Wade Miley (L)

The Reds are as hot as an August Midwest summer, scorching the ball to a .382 wOBA and .251 ISO in the last week.
Not known necessarily as a strikeout artist, Miley could rack up a few here – the Cubs have whiffed a whopping 26.5% of the time in the last month.
Justin Steele has a very unique profile – over 18.1 innings, he has a 2.93 ERA but a 5.25 FIP.

Best bets: I think this is an easy same-game parlay. I would slam the Reds here.

Braves (-162), Marlins (+136)
Total: 8.5 runs
Touki Toussaint (R) vs. Braxton Garrett (L)

The Marlins need to wake up at the plate – they have been one of the league’s worst offenses over the last 30 days (.308 wOBA, 25.3% strikeout rate).
The Braves have been better at the plate, but their 24.2% strikeout rate is certainly elevated recently.
Which Touki Toussaint shows up here? Having been rocked lately, can he rebound against this bad offense?

Best bets: I like the underdogs here. Garrett has been solid, and Toussaint has struggled.

Orioles (+225), Rays (-275)
Total: 8.5 runs
Matt Harvey (R) vs. Collin McHugh (R)

Collin McHugh has been absurd out of the bullpen – how long will he go as the opener?
Matt Harvey has struggled this season – over the last two weeks, he’s been tagged for a 5.00 ERA and 1.78 WHIP.
Can the Rays stay hot — they are still smashing at the dish with a .364 wOBA over the last 30 days.

Best bets: Find your favorite lefty hitter (like Brandon Lowe) and smash a homer prop, and even consider a same-game parlay here.

Astros (-148), Royals (+126)
Total: 10.0 runs
Jake Odorizzi (R) vs. Carlos Hernández (R)

Carlos Hernández has been brilliant in his last three starts (two against the White Sox, one against the Yankees). Can this continue?
Kansas City doesn’t whiff a ton (21.9%), but their .295 WOBA in the last month has stunk.
The Astros have heated back up at the dish – their .327 wOBA in the last month has them at 11th in the league.

Best bets: I want to ride the rookie here – go with the underdog Royals.

Athletics (-108), White Sox (-108)
Total: 9.0 runs
Frankie Montas (R) vs. Dallas Keuchel (L)

The White Sox are straight fire at the dish – their .203 ISO in the last 30 days is fifth best in baseball.
The A’s aren’t exactly crushing the ball (.157 ISO), but they do have a solid .327 wOBA.
Frankie Montas has been ballin’ lately. In the last month, he’s whiffed 35 batters in 25 innings, including a 2.88 ERA.

Best bets: This game is a toss-up due to two great teams, but bet on the pitching – Montas has been better lately.

Padres (-130), Rockies (+110)
Total: 12.5 runs
Ryan Weathers (L) vs. Antonio Senzatela (R)

The Padres are sinking, and fast. They are now 10.0 games out of the division, but right fielder (yes, that’s right) Fernando Tatis Jr. is back.
The Rockies have quietly been really good at the dish – in the last month, they sport a .343 wOBA.
This is easily the top mark on the board with an O/U of 12.5 runs.

Best bets: I do like the over here – as bad as Senzatela has been, this could be an onslaught of runs.

Mets (+172), Giants (-205)
Total: 8.5 runs
Rich Hill (L) vs. Kevin Gausman (R)

Numbers can get dicey sometimes – the Giants rank 12th in team WOBA in the last month, but 28th in the last week.
This Mets dropoff has been fast – they are now in third place of the NL East.
One thing you shouldn’t blame is the Mets offense – they rock a .327 wOBA in the last month.

Best bets: Take the Giants in a F3/F5 bet. The Mets are falling quickly.