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Each day, we are going to try and give you a quick preview of today’s main slate and any interesting betting angles that we spot. Take a peek.
Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles
Blue Jays (-188), Orioles (+158)
Total: 10.5 runs
Hyun Jin Ryu (L) vs. Matt Harvey (R)
Three things to know
- Matt Harvey has been awful this season, but the Orioles don’t have many great options. He has allowed 1.75 HR/9 this season.
- Camden Yards is a hitter-friendly environment. It ranks seventh-best in park factor and leads the league in home run factor.
- Toronto has been cookin’ at the dish all year, and in the last two weeks, rank fourth in wRC+ (124) with a .191 ISO mark.
Best bets: Slam this puppy on the Jays. They may cover the over by themselves, but a F3/F5 bet is juicy as hell.
Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs
Phillies (-134), Cubs (+114)
Total: 7.5 runs
Zack Wheeler (R) vs. Alec Mills (R)
Three things to know
- Folks aren’t talking much about him, but Zack Wheeler has been dominant with a 31.3% strikeout rate and 49.3% ground-ball rate this year.
- The Cubs pitching is keeping them in the NL Central – the offense ranks 25th in wRC+ (89) the last two weeks with a silly 30.3% strikeout rate.
- Keep an eye out on the weather – there appears to be a hefty wind (11 MPH) blowing in today.
Best bets: I’d expect Wheeler to dominate, so any K prop at 7.5-8.5 is a slam bet.
Oakland Athletics at Houston Astros
Athletics (+136), Astros (-162)
Total: 8.5 runs
Sean Manaea (L) vs. Luis García (R)
Three things to know
- Yordan Alvarez had been out for a bit, following the birth of his son, but crushed two long home runs Tuesday.
- People know about the Astros offensive prowess (leading the league in most categories), but the A’s are a top five offense as well.
- Sean Manaea, after some early season struggles, has really turned a corner and now owns a 25.1% strikeout rate.
Best bets: This turned into an offensive show, and I would expect the same again here. Play the OVER.
Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks
Rockies (-106), Diamondbacks (-110)
Total: 9.5 runs
Antonio Senzatela (R) vs. Humberto Castellanos (R)
Three things to know
- After five early runs, Tuesday’s game appeared to be cruising for the over, but the pitching prevailed.
- With two very poor arms, the opposite looks to be the case today. Antonio Senzatela has recorded only a 15.5% strikeout rate this year.
- This is likely a bullpen game for the D-Backs. Humberto Castellanos has worked primarily in relief, and his 12.2% walk rate is ugly.
Best bets: The OVER. While these offenses are bad, these pitchers might be even worse.
St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giants
Cardinals (+160), Giants (-190)
Total: 8.5 runs
Johan Oviedo (R) vs. Alex Wood (L)
Three things to know
- The Cardinals have almost no starting pitching – Johan Oviedo has flashed some bright spots, but his spotty command will put in a bad spot.
- The Cardinals have one thing going for them – they are putting the ball in play a lot, recording a 17.0% strikeout rate in the last two weeks.
- Alex Wood is another reclamation project that’s been great for the Giants – he’s logged a 25.5% strikeout rate this season.
Best bets: A same-game parlay here makes too much sense. Oviedo has struggled, and Wood has been excellent.
New York Yankees at Seattle Mariners
Yankees (-118), Mariners (+100)
Total: 8.0 runs
Domingo Germán (R) vs. Yusei Kikuchi (L)
Three things to know
- Over the last two weeks, the Yankees rank sixth with a wRC+ mark of 119. A 13.5% walk rate shows their plate discipline could portend for big things.
- With Luke Voit returning to the lineup, this is a challenging group too pitch to. Tuesday against Justus Sheffield, they slammed two home runs and scored 12 times.
- If there’s one arm that could tame the Yanks, it could be Kikuchi. His 25.4% strikeout rate would be the best of his career.
Best bets: I like the OVER, and big time. The Yanks are cooking lately, and German has been off his game.
Washington Nationals at San Diego Padres
Nationals (+150), Padres (-178)
Total: 8.5 runs
Patrick Corbin (L) vs. Chris Paddack (R)
Three things to know
- Patrick Corbin stinks. He’s allowing gobs of home runs this season (1.75 HR/9), and he cannot get righties out (.511 slugging percentage).
- The banged up Nats are starting Alcides Escobar, and in the leadoff spot. Woof.
- Throwing a new curve, Paddack has logged a 24.4% strikeout rate this season, and his command remains as impeccable as ever (5.5% walk rate).
Best bets: Our second same-game parlay. I just do not trust Corbin to be decent. Mix in a Fernando Tatis Jr. home run prop if you like fun.
(Get all my MLB betting picks here)
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