The One Hitter: MLB game-by-game betting breakdown (7/23)


Each day, we are going to try and give you a quick preview of today’s main slate and any interesting betting angles that we spot. Take a look.

Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies betting breakdown

Braves (+132), Phillies (-156)
Total: 7.5 runs
Max Fried (L) vs. Zack Wheeler (R)

Three things to know

  • Max Fried was brilliant in his last turn out (seven scoreless innings, seven strikeouts), and he looks to be returning to form.
  • The Braves are struggling without Ronald Acuña Jr. – they rank 18th in team wOBA in the last two weeks.
  • Can Zack Wheeler win the Cy Young? He sports a gorgeous 49.5% ground-ball rate and 30.6% strikeout rate.

Best bets: I like both the UNDER and some K props here. If you can get a solid line, slam it.

Washington Nationals at Baltimore Orioles betting breakdown

Nationals (-132), Orioles (+112)
Total: 10.0 runs
Patrick Corbin (L) vs. Jorge López (R)

Three things to know

  • Corbin sports a 17.6% strikeout rate so far this season, the lowest mark of his career.
  • Corbin’s 1.64 HR/9 allowed would be the single-worst mark of his career.
  • Over 89.1 innings, Jorge López has logged a 4.81 FIP with a 1.48 HR/9.

Best bets: With this park and two struggling hurlers, I do like the OVER here.

St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds betting breakdown

Cardinals (+136), Reds (-162)
Total: 9.5 runs
Wade LeBlanc (L) vs. Tyler Mahle (R)

Three things to know

  • Another righty, and another terrifying opportunity for the Cardinals. They rank third worst in team wOBA against right-handers
  • Cincinnati has been bad at the plate lately – over the last two weeks, the Reds have recorded a .289 wOBA and 26.7% strikeout rate.
  • Tyler Mahle has gone beast mode – he’s recorded a 29.6% strikeout rate – and this could be a blow-up spot for him.

Best bets: The UNDER. Both teams are struggling at the dish big time.

New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox betting breakdown

Yankees (+104), Red Sox (-122)
Total: 8.5 runs
Gerrit Cole (R) vs. Eduardo Rodríguez (L)

Three things to know

  • It may be a bit stunning, but Gerrit Cole is a road dog into this contest.
  • Cole struck out 11 Red Sox in his last outing, allowing only one run over six frames.
  • Rodriguez also faced the Yankees last time out, and he was pretty nasty with 5.2 scoreless innings with eight whiffs.

Best bets: I know the park is hitter-friendly, but I like the UNDER here with the way these two arms have been dealing. 

Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Guardians betting breakdown

Rays (-124), Guardians (+106)
Total: 9.0 runs
Josh Fleming (L) vs. Zach Plesac (R)

Three things to know

  • It’s been a bumpy season for Zach Plesac – a darling of many season-long drafters, the righty has only whiffed 45 batters in 68.2 IP.
  • Like Plesac, Josh Fleming has posted solid ratios (3.93 ERA, 1.09 WHIP), but he does not provide a lot of swings-and-misses (43 strikeouts in 73.1 IP).
  • Tampa hammers right-handed pitching – they’ve logged a 106 wRC+ this season.

Best bets: I definitely don’t like any strikeout plays, but I do like the Rays here – take them in a F3/F5 bet.

Toronto Blue Jays at New York Mets betting breakdown

Blue Jays (+100), Mets (-118)
Total: 9.0 runs
Steven Matz (L) vs. Tylor Megill (R)

Three things to know

  • Even though Francisco Lindor has been injured, the Mets have been excellent, recording a .378 wOBA in the last two weeks.
  • Neither team whiffs a ton – over the last two weeks, they’ve both posted strikeout rates under 21%.
  • Eight-game winner Steven Matz still gives up too many homers for my liking (1.33 HR/9), but he’s been excellent with a 3.69 xFIP.

Best bets: I know Megill has been brilliant, but I don’t trust him to shut down the league’s best offense. Grab the Jays.

Los Angeles Angels at Minnesota Twins betting breakdown

Angels (-126), Twins (+108)
Total: 10.0 runs
Alex Cobb (R) vs. J.A. Happ (L)

Three things to know

  • The purge may have begun with the Twins, as Nelson Cruz was shipped to Tampa Thursday.
  • Is it #AlexCobbSZN? The righty and his devastating splitter have recorded a 54.9% ground-ball rate and 26.2% strikeout rate.
  • J.A. Happ and his 6.15 ERA are being driven by an ugly 17.9% strikeout rate.

Best bets: Pound the UNDER. These two teams played a close one last night, and Cobb has been terrific. 

Texas Rangers at Houston Astros betting breakdown

Rangers (+180), Astros (-215)
Total: 8.5 runs
Kolby Allard (L) vs. Jake Odorizzi (R)

Three things to know

  • The Astros have smashed lefties this year, and four starters have a wRC+ over 129.
  • Texas has been a popular target – for opposing starting pitching. In the last two weeks, they’ve logged dreadful marks of an .084 ISO and .226 wOBA.
  • Jake Odorizzi has done a nice job limiting the big fly (1.24 HR/9), but he has allowed a 46.5% hard-hit rate.

Best bets: I love some home run props here and anything on the Astros side.

Chicago White Sox at Milwaukee Brewers betting breakdown

White Sox (+110), Brewers (-130)
Total: 7.5 runs
Lucas Giolito (R) vs. Freddy Peralta (R)

Three things to know

  • This series is a pitching lover’s dream – the big guns for each team are lined up to face one another in this series.
  • The White Sox have been obliterating pitching in the last two weeks, posting a .371 wOBA and .259 ISO.
  • Milwaukee is still struggling at the plate – they have a 23.5% strikeout rate and clock in only 18th in team wOBA.

Best bets: It’s a very low total, but how do we not consider playing it? Watch the strikeout props, too.

Pittsburgh Pirates at San Francisco Giants betting breakdown

Pirates (+160), Giants (-190)
Total: 8.5 runs
Chad Kuhl (R) vs. Johnny Cueto (R)

Three things to know 

  • Is this the real Chad Kuhl? In the last month, he’s posted a 2.11 ERA and 1.17 WHIP over 21.1 innings pitched.
  • Johnny Cueto is pitching in the final year of a six year contract, and the veteran righty has been solid with a 4.04 FIP.
  • Both offenses have been good lately – the Pirates actually rank fifth in team wOBA in the last two weeks (.361).

Best bets: The arms have been solid here, but I like the OVER. These are two better-than-expected offensive attacks.

Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers betting breakdown

Rockies (+235), Dodgers (-290)
Total: 8.5 runs
Chi Chi González (R) vs. David Price (L)

Three things to know

  • Mookie Betts missed a fifth straight contest Thursday with a hip issue.
  • The nice thing is that Chi Chi González has been blasted by both lefties (.367) and righties (.378) alike.
  • David Price is continuing to build his pitch count – he doesn’t work very deep, but his 3.48 FIP has been solid.

Best bets: The Dodgers in a same-game parlay – don’t sleep on a few homer props, too.

Oakland Athletics at Seattle Mariners betting breakdown

Athletics (-124), Mariners (+106)
Total: 7.5 runs
Frankie Montas (R) vs. Yusei Kikuchi (L)

Three things to know

  • This Seattle offense stinks – they were shut down by Sean Manaea Thursday, whiffing 13 times.
  • Frankie Montas has been better lately, and his 24.4% strikeout rate has been solid this season.
  • If Kikuchi could stop giving up homers (1.57 HR/9), he’d be an ace – he’s recorded a 25.2% strikeout rate this year.

Best bets: If the Mariners could put the bat on the ball, I’d like the OVER. Look hard at Montas’ K prop.

(Get all my MLB betting picks here)

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