The One Hitter: MLB game-by-game betting breakdown (7/21)

Each day, we are going to try and give you a quick preview of today’s main slate and any interesting betting angles that we spot. Take a look.

Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays betting breakdown

Red Sox (+164), Blue Jays (-196)
Total: 11.0 runs
Garrett Richards (R) vs. Robbie Ray (L)

Three things to know

• Will this be a marquee matchup of offenses again? Probably. As the Jays wrap things up in Sahlen Field, it ranks fourth in park factor and eighth in home run factor this year.
• Can we really bet an over of 11.0 runs? Maybe, this thing smashed through it Monday.
• In terms of wOBA, these are two top-seven offenses in the league.

Best bets: I am actually going to suggest the OVER again. Ray has been brilliant with a career-best first-pitch strike rate, but these are two great offenses.

Texas Rangers at Detroit Tigers betting breakdown

Rangers (+108), Tigers (-126)
Total: 9.5 runs
Jordan Lyles (R) vs. Matt Manning (R)

Three things to know

• I’m honestly stunned Matt Manning keeps pitching. He’s been awful this year, sporting an 8.9% strikeout rate and 7.9% walk rate, good for a 6.95 ERA.
• Jordan Lyles has been killed by the long ball, but at least he is consistent – he posted a 1.87 HR/9 last year, and a 1.88 HR/9 mark so far this year.
• These offenses are in the bottom third of the league with wOBAs of .304 (Detroit) and .299 (Texas).

Best bets: The OVER. These pitchers are terrible. Eye some home run props here, too. 

Cleveland Indians at Houston Astros betting breakdown

Indians (+200), Astros (-245)
Total: 8.5 runs
Eli Morgan (R) vs. Lance McCullers Jr. (R)

Three things to know

• At first glance, Eli Morgan’s 23.4% strikeout looks tantalizing – but his 21.7% ground-ball rate is killing him.
• Lance McCullers Jr. has bounced back nicely. His 54.9% ground-ball rate is outstanding, with a 27.4% strikeout rate to boot.
• The Astros have given up their title of leading the league in wOBA, but ranking second (.335) ain’t so bad.

Best bets: A same-game parlay – Eli Morgan is bad, and the Astros are cookin’. 

Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox betting breakdown

Twins (+130), White Sox (-162)
Total: 9.5 runs
Michael Pineda (R) vs. Dylan Cease (R)

Three things to know

• After not allowing a home run last season, Michael Pineda has allowed 1.61 HR/9 this year.
• Dylan Cease has broken out this season with a 30.0% strikeout rate, but a 9.8% walk rate is keeping things spicy.
• These are two excellent offenses – both rank inside the top-10 in most statistical categories.

Best bets: The Sox all the way (again). While the Twins offense is no joke, Pineda has struggled recently. This could get out of hand.

Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals betting breakdown

Cubs (+114), Cardinals (-134)
Total: 8.0 runs
Kyle Hendricks (R) vs. Adam Wainwright (R)

Three things to know

• The Cardinals exploded in back-to-back nights offensively, but this team still ranks in the bottom three in wOBA. Will it continue?
• Adam Wainwright really likes Busch Stadium II. For his career, he has logged 1,220.1 innings there, recording a 2.86 ERA and .285 wOBA.
• Kyle Hendricks is 11-1 since May 1.

Best bets: I expect a pitching duel here. Pound the UNDER.

San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers

Giants (+136), Dodgers (-162)
Total: 8.0 runs
Logan Webb (R) vs. Julio Urías (L)

Three things to know

• It’s kind of weird that the Dodgers feel like they are struggling, and they rank fourth in team wOBA.
• Will Mookie Betts play? He was torching the ball this weekend and left with a hip injury. He has not played since.
• The Dodgers have unleased Julio Urías, and he’s been a beast – spanning 112 innings, he’s logged a 26.8% strikeout rate and only a 5.3% walk rate.

Best bets: I’d think about some Giants bets, but Logan Webb ain’t cutting it. This screams same-game parlay.

(Get all my MLB betting picks here)

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