Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Each day, we are going to try and give you a quick preview of today’s main slate and any interesting betting angles that we spot. Take a peek and let us know what your thoughts are around our new daily piece.
Miami Marlins at Boston Red Sox
Marlins (+124), Red Sox (-146)
Total: 9.5 runs
Pablo López (R) vs. Nick Pivetta (R)
It’s a bit crazy when you look at Pablo López’s record, but through 12 starts, the unlucky starter has a single win. ONE. Now, keep in mind why I’m calling that unlucky – over 67 innings pitched, Lopez owns a 2.82 ERA and stellar 3.41 FIP thanks to a 25.0% strikeout rate. Lopez will be sorely tested tonight against one of the league’s best offenses, which has the league’s fifth-best team wOBA marks (.326). The Red Sox are nearly identical in their handedness splits this season, and Fenway Park clocks in 12th in park factor.
Best bets: Miami has struggled at the plate all year, and the last two weeks have been no better – they have the sixth-worst team wOBA in baseball. An F5 or Moneyline bet here makes a lot of sense. Don’t ignore that Boston ranks seven-worst in team wOBA over the same time frame.
Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Angels
Royals (+130), Angels (-154)
Total: 9.0 runs
Jackson Kowar (R) vs. Dylan Bundy (R)
Mega-prospect Jackson Kowar gets the nod and call-up for the Royals tonight, and it will be curious to see if this is a one-time shot or a long-term opportunity. The right-hander is oozing talent – like many others in the Royals system, he possesses a ton of swing-and-miss ability. In Double-A in 2019, Kowar posted a 25.2% strikeout rate, and small sample size be damned in 2021, Kowar has upped the ante this season with a mark of 33.9%. Now, major league hitters, especially lineups that feature bats like Shohei Ohtani and Anthony Rendon, are an altogether different beast. At least Kowar doesn’t maintain a fly-ball heavy approach – in each of his four professional stops, he’s logged a ground-ball rate higher than 40%.
Best bets: I don’t love rookie hurlers in their debut – I get that there are Alek Manoah types, but remember that Logan Gilbert struggled in his first few turns as well. If anything, I am betting the over here.
Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres
Cubs (+102), Padres (-120)
Total: 7.5 runs
Adbert Alzolay (R) vs. Ryan Weathers (L)
Has there been anyone having such a good season and flying under the radar like Adbert Alzolay? Lost in the shuffle of a ton of other great performances, after Yu Darvish was traded away this offseason, Alzolay has stood out in a big-time way. He’s thrown a slider 47% of the time, and that pitch has been a big reason he rocks a 27.2% strikeout rate. Even more impressive? His control and command, with a walk rate that sits at a beautiful 5.2% mark.
Best bets: Facing the same team twice in a row in such close fashion always worries me. While I think Alzolay is up to the task, this veteran-led offense makes me a wee-bit nervous. I give a slight lean to the Padres F5 bet, but take a close eye on an Alzolay strikeout prop.
