Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Each day, we are going to try and give you a quick preview of today’s main slate and any interesting betting angles that we spot. Take a peek and let us know what your thoughts are around our new daily piece.
Miami Marlins at Pittsburgh Pirates
Marlins (-112), Pirates (-104)
Total: 7.5 runs
Elieser Hernandez (R) vs. Tyler Anderson (L)
Elieser Hernandez returns from an IL stint to pitch for the Marlins, and this is a hurler many folks may be unaware of. So with only 2.1 innings pitched under his belt for 2021, who is this right-hander? A beast, actually. He averaged nearly 12 strikeouts per inning a year ago, followed up by a campaign where he whiffed nearly 10 batters per nine in 2019. The true question is — what, if any, limitations will there be?
Best bets: These are two horrendous offenses, clocking in the bottom four of baseball in team wOBA. However, with shoddy bullpens and less than locked in starting pitching, I am taking the OVER here.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Milwaukee Brewers
Diamondbacks (-156), Brewers (+132)
Total: 9.5 runs
Jon Duplantier (R) vs. Brett Anderson (L)
This game started at an 8.5 over/under and has risen fast — and let’s be clear: Like the game that we just discussed above, these are two bad offenses as well. Both of these attacks rank in the bottom half of the league, and Milwaukee, surprisingly, clocks in third worst. Yikes. But, the skills, or lack thereof, of Jon Duplantier could be just what the doctor ordered for Milwaukee. Duplantier has been victimized by the long ball (2.52 HR/9), and Brett Anderson ain’t exactly Cy Young, either (5.42 FIP).
Best bets: I am betting the OVER and I think this game, with warm Midwest temperatures, gets slammed. Ketel Marte has returned with a bang to provide a spark to the Arizona offense.
Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals
Twins (-102), Royals (-116)
Total: 9.5 runs
J.A. Happ (L) vs. Kris Bubic (L)
A lefty-lefty matchup in the AL Central awaits us in this contest, and it’s also a feature of an aging veteran versus a young hurler. If you are unfamiliar with the exploits of Bubic, he’s a hard-throwing lefty that hasn’t seen the strikeouts translate quite yet at the major league level — he’s recorded only a 19.0% strikeout rate with a 12.1% walk rate this season. If the command continues to be an issue, veteran bats like Josh Donaldson and Nelson Cruz could make him pay.
Best bets: With Happ’s solid run of form, I love a F5 bet here on the Twins. The concern for me is just a lack of strike throwing from Bubic could haunt him here.
Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox
Tigers (-176), White Sox (-210)
Total: 8.0 runs
Casey Mize (R) vs. Lance Lynn (R)
This game will be an interesting contrast in two right-handers that are truly throwing the heck out of the baseball. Mize recorded a 3.93 xFIP in May and hasn't allowed more than one earned run in any of his last three starts. But, buyer beware — for the year, he owns a 20.1% strikeout rate, and the White Sox can pop at the dish, sitting second in wOBA (.330).
Best bets: I like a F5 bet here on the South Siders and even a small taste on the over here. Don’t sleep on a Lynn strikeout prop, either.
Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals
Reds (+142), Cardinals (-168)
Total: 8.5 runs
Vladimir Gutierrez (R) vs. Adam Wainwright (R)
This game features two hurlers who couldn’t be more opposite in their playing careers — Adam Wainwright, winner of two World Series rings and pitching in his age-40 season, takes the ball for St. Louis, and he’s been outstanding yet again this year. Vladimir Gutierrez, meanwhile, is thrust into the action for the Reds, and he has pitched 159 innings above Double-A.
Best bets: Wainwright has to be on his game, as the Reds rank fifth in baseball in team wOBA (.326). That’s a far cry from St. Louis’s 10th-worst team wOBA. I like the UNDER here.
Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels
Mariners (+140), Angels (-166)
Total: 9.0 runs
Justus Sheffield (L) vs. Griffin Canning (R)
The Seattle offense can’t be this bad all year, can it? Already owning the league’s worst offensive marks in team wOBA (.285) and wRC+ (86). And now, they have shifted the young start Jarred Kelenic to the bottom of the order, out of the leadoff spot. Can he get hot? On the flip side, the Angels are still missing Mike Trout, but this offense is not without firepower itself. Justus Sheffield sports a 5.84 FIP (one of the worst among starters in baseball), and that’s largely due to a low strikeout rate (15.9%) and elevated walk rate (9.1%).
Best bets: This game is a complete and utter toss up for me. Both pitchers are not particularly solid, but it’s not like these offenses are firing on all cylinders, too. Probably a stay away for me.
Chicago Cubs at San Francisco Giants
Cubs (+112), Giants (-132)
Total: 8.0 runs
Zach Davies (R) vs. Anthony DeSclafani (R)
These are two top-10 offenses in baseball — I don’t think that the Cub offense is particularly surprising, but this Giant offense continues to be a very strong and underrated attack. While Zach Davies showcased a plus change up last season that spiked his whiff rate above 20%, it now sits at a lowly 12.6% rate this season and an ugly 11.7% walk rate.
Best bets: Coupled with an 11 MPH wind and warm temperatures, pound the OVER here.
New York Mets at San Diego Padres
Cubs (+112), Padres (-132)
Total: 6.5 runs
Taijuan Walker (R) vs. Yu Darvish (R)
On paper, these are two struggling offenses — the Padres clock in 15th (.309) and the Mets rank 22nd (.300) in terms of team wOBA. But, these are two teams that have recently gotten a bit healthy, especially the Mets — Pete Alonso and Kevin Pillar returned to the lineup, and Jonathan Villar has been surprisingly solid. Frankie Lindor has also been really good recently.
Best bets: I feel like a broken record here, but I like the OVER and a F5 bet for the Padres.
